Top Seeds Heading into March: Don’t Hold Your Breath

With selection Sunday less than two weeks away, it’s time to get to know who’s who at the top of the college basketball heap. In the breath I take right now, the top seeds going into March are Villanova, Oklahoma, Kansas and Virginia but nothing in March Madness is guaranteed. So let’s break it down and predict whether these four powerhouses will remain numero unos.

EAST:

Villanova

If you aren’t scared of the Villanova Wildcats you had better start shaking in your boots. With an overall record of 24-4, these scary cats are number one in the Big East. Between their top ranked defense and ease of schedule coming down the stretch, the Wildcats are sure to enter the big dance with a lot of confidence despite last night’s loss to Xavier. Villanova wasn’t even in the discussion during preseason predictions which has probably helped ease the pressure all season long. They’ve won 15 of their last 17 games and other than the hiccup last night against Xavier, show no signs of slowing down. Look for Nova to make a solid showing in March.

Prediction: Villanova is the #1 seed in the East.  Heads to the final four.

Maryland

Who’s afraid of a big bad turtle? No one, that’s who. Yes, Maryland has an impressive record at 23-5 and the big bad turtles are ranked 3^rd in the Big Ten but they still have to get passed Indiana and Purdue in the regular season and these are no gimmies. The Terps also have recent losses to Minnesota and Wisconsin on their resume’ which doesn’t fare well for their confidence. The only thing predictable about this team is that they’re unpredictable, especially in March and certainly not worth any more than two rounds on your brackets.

Prediction: Maryland is the #3 seed in the East. Ousted in round two.

WEST:

Oklahoma

Currently sitting 2nd in the Big 12, Oklahoma (22-5) looks to be headed for a number one or two seed in the West. With three games remaining in the regular season, the Sooners have a relatively easy schedule coming into March with Baylor being possibly their only competition. But I wouldn’t hold your breath on this one. Oklahoma has struggled of late and keeps creeping back from number one ranked, Kansas. They’ve lost three of their last eight games and if the Sooners want any momentum heading into the tournament they ideally need to win their remaining three games.  History isn’t exactly on their side either.  They’ve been knocked out of the tournament in the first round three of the last six years and haven’t made a final four appearance since 2002.  Circle at your own risk.

Prediction: Oklahoma is the #1 seed in the West. Loses in the regional semifinals.

North Carolina

At 23-5, the University of North Carolina seems to be headed in a positive direction compared to struggling OU. Currently ranked 2nd in the Atlantic Coast Conference, UNC appears to be a solid number two seed and could potentially edge out Oklahoma if the Sooners become victims of their own demise. The Tarheels still have Virginia and Duke looming on their schedule and their one-point loss to Duke a week ago will still be fresh on their minds when they meet for a rematch in their final game of the season.

Prediction: UNC is the #2 seed in the West. Makes the final four but it won’t be easy.

MIDWEST:

Kansas

The Kansas Jayhawks (24-4) are comfortably sitting number one in the Big 12 and look to be a solid one seed heading into the tournament. Of bigger concern may be that Kansas has been knocked out in the second round of the tournament for the past two years and hasn’t made a final four since 2012. But the Jayhawks are on a roll, winning their last seven games including a 76-72 victory over the Sooners and are in a good position to cruise into the number one seed in the Midwest.

Prediction: Kansas is the #1 seed in the Midwest.  Cruises to the final four.

Iowa

The Hawkeyes are looking pretty good on paper. They’re 20-7, good on paper. They’re 2^nd in the Big 10, good on paper. BUT they stink in the tournament. Iowa has only made the tournament 5 times in the past 15 years and their best finishes were  losses in the second rounds in 2015 and 2001. So maybe take a chance that the Hawkeyes will squeak into round three. Hey, it could happen.

Prediction: Iowa is the #2 seed in the Midwest. Loses in the regional semifinals.

SOUTH:

Virginia

Virginia is for [college basketball] lovers! At 21-6, UVA is currently fourth in the ACC and has lost two of their last three games sliding them down the polls just a smidge. The Cavaliers’ recent three-point loss to Miami (FL) is lingering and they still have UNC left on the regular schedule. Having never been regular attendants in the tournament it’s difficult to predict how they’ll stand up to the big dogs (and cats!). Furthermore, tournament history has not been kind to the Cavaliers having been ousted in the first or second round with a few exceptions when they do show. Will 2016 be the year of the Virginia Cavaliers? The jury’s still out on this one.

Prediction: UVA is the #1 seed in the South. Ousted in the second round.

Michigan State

Now here’s a solid tournament team in March.  Michigan State is 4th in the Big 10 with an overall 23-5 record and the Spartans have won seven of their last eight with the lone loss in this stretch being a one-point squeaker to Purdue. With the exception of a first round loss in 2011, the Spartans have an impressive history in the tournament reaching, at least, the regional semifinals in the last eight years but frequently the regional finals or national semis. With an easy schedule to finish the regular season, the Spartans will be confident at tournament time.

Prediction: Michigan State is the #2 seed in the South. Reaches the final four.

Xavier

Xavier is 2nd in the Big East and 25-3 as they head into the end of the regular season. Coming off a huge victory over Villanova, the Musketeers are enjoying sweet revenge having been trounced by the Wildcats 95-64 back in December. Clearly the Musks have long forgotten December having won nine of their last ten games and are sure to keep that momentum going in March. Unfortunately, the reality is that Xavier hasn’t performed well in the madness of March since they made the regional final in 2008.

Prediction: Xavier is the #3 seed in the South. Makes a decent run to the regional semifinals.

Jules Rules:  So don’t hold your breath and don’t blink an eye because all that can be expected is the unexpected during March Madness.

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