6Introduction

Welcome to Part 2 of my “Using a DFS mindset for your March Madness bracket” series. If you haven’t read Part 1, I strongly suggest you do so to get the theory behind the picks. Hours of preparation went into preparation for this article pulling numbers from various websites that I referenced in Part 1. In addition to pulling Vegas lines for the Round of 64, I have also pulled projected (“Proj”) win percentages from FiveThirtyEight, KenPom and ThePowerRank. I have also pulled “Who Picked Whom” (“Own”) data from both ESPN and Yahoo. All of this data has been averaged and put into the grid you will see at the top of each region.

Following the grids will be my pick recommendations for an “Office Pool” sized (50-250 entries) pool for the first two round and then some suggestions on teams to consider carrying into the Final 4 depending on how contrarian you need/want to be depending on your pool size. What I am looking for is where the biggest gaps are between the “Proj” win percentage at each round compared to the “Own” picked percentage by the public. When the gap is large is when we have an opportunity to make a smart contrarian pick. Well, that is enough time setting the stage, let’s dance!

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Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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