Introduction
Welcome to Part 2 of my “Using a DFS mindset for your March Madness bracket” series. If you haven’t read Part 1, I strongly suggest you do so to get the theory behind the picks. Hours of preparation went into preparation for this article pulling numbers from various websites that I referenced in Part 1. In addition to pulling Vegas lines for the Round of 64, I have also pulled projected (“Proj”) win percentages from FiveThirtyEight, KenPom and ThePowerRank. I have also pulled “Who Picked Whom” (“Own”) data from both ESPN and Yahoo. All of this data has been averaged and put into the grid you will see at the top of each region.
Following the grids will be my pick recommendations for an “Office Pool” sized (50-250 entries) pool for the first two round and then some suggestions on teams to consider carrying into the Final 4 depending on how contrarian you need/want to be depending on your pool size. What I am looking for is where the biggest gaps are between the “Proj” win percentage at each round compared to the “Own” picked percentage by the public. When the gap is large is when we have an opportunity to make a smart contrarian pick. Well, that is enough time setting the stage, let’s dance!
South
Round of 64
Picks: Virginia, Creighton, Kentucky, Arizona, Loyola-Chicago, Tennessee, Nevada, Cincinnati
Large Pool Considerations: Buffalo
- Creighton is small Vegas favorite and projection (56.9%) even higher than ownership (54.9%)
- Arizona has a big gap between their ownership (93.2%) and projection (77.3%), while it is not big enough to pick the upset in smaller pools, it could be a good contrarian pick in large pools
- Loyola-Chicago is only a small underdog (-2) and has a much higher projection (45.9%) to win then the public ownership (33.0%)
- The public is on Texas as a 10-seed (57.1%) but Vegas has the game as a Pick’em and the projections like Nevada (52.3%) – (Spoiler alert: I do still like Texas in general as they show up as a “Contrarian” Final 4 option in larger pools)
Round of 32
Picks: Virginia, Kentucky, Loyola-Chicago, Cincinnati
Large Pool Considerations: Texas
- Creighton has a better chance to beat Virginia then the ownership (92.9%) but Virginia still has a 9x better chance to win the game according to the projections
- Kentucky’s projection to advance (40.7%) is only slightly less than Arizona (41.6%) but Arizona is far more popular (59.6% to 34.7%) so, go against the public with Kentucky
- Tennessee has less than a 4x advantage over Loyola-Chicago according to the projections (61.2% to 16.1%) yet the public has Tennessee has an overwhelming favorite (66.5% to just 8.3%). I can go either way on this one as I think either winner is likely to lose the next game anyway.
Round of 16
Picks: Virginia, Cincinnati
Large Pool Consideration: Kentucky, Texas
- Both Virginia (67.6%-Proj/64.3%-Own) and Kentucky’s (12.1%-Proj/11.2%-Own) projection and ownership are close to each other, yet Virginia is over 5x more likely to advance, go with Virginia in smaller pools but consider Kentucky in large pools
- Cincinnati’s projection (48.9%) and ownership (54.8%) are close and they are 10x more likely to advance than Loyola-Chicago
Round of 8 (Advance to Final 4)
Pick: Cincinnati
Contrarian: Kentucky, Texas
Fade: Tennessee, Arizona
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- Cincinnati has a much higher projection (22.4%) than ownership (10.9%) which shows they are being undervalued
West
Round of 64
Picks: Xavier, Florida St., Ohio St., Gonzaga, Houston, Michigan, Texas A&M, North Carolina
Large Pool Considerations: None
- Florida St. has a higher projection (59.8%) than Missouri (40.2%) and the game is a Pick’em, yet Missouri has a higher ownership (52.1%) so, go with Florida St.
- Despite being the higher seed, Texas A&M has a lower ownership (47.7%) than Providence (52.3%), yet both Vegas (-3) and the projections (61.5% to 38.5%) favor Texas A&M
- Pretty much chalk in the first round in the West
Round of 32
Picks: Xavier, Ohio St., Houston, North Carolina
Large Pool Considerations: None, as two of these picks are already pretty contrarian (Ohio St./Houston)
- Florida St. has a better chance to beat Xavier than the public gives them credit for but Xavier is still more than 3x likely to advance so stick with Xavier
- The public loves Gonzaga (72.4%) over Ohio St. (22.6%) but the projections are much closer with Gonzaga just a 2x favorite to win, so go against the public with Ohio St.
- Michigan’s ownership (78.7%) far exceeds their projection (51.6%) to advance go with Houston for the upset
- The projection gap between North Carolina (74.9%) and Texas A&M (17.0%) is too big to overcome even though the ownership is even more heavily weighted toward North Carolina (88.3%)
Round of 16
Picks: Ohio St., North Carolina
Large Pool Considerations: Gonzaga (if you have Gonzaga getting past Ohio St. also consider them to get past Xavier)
- Ohio St has a projection (14.9%) almost 2x higher than their ownership (7.7%) while Xavier’s goes the other way by almost 15%
- North Carolina is 3x more likely to advance over Houston according to the projections and North Carolina’s ownership (57.4%) isn’t too far off their projection (45.2%)
Round of 8 (Advance to Final 4)
Pick: North Carolina
Contrarian: Ohio St., Gonzaga
Fade: Xavier, Michigan
- Ohio St’s projection dips in this round (6.5%) while North Carolina’s projection is 4x higher at 26.2% and is still fairly close to their ownership (37.0%)
East
Round of 64
Picks: Villanova, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Wichita St., Florida, Texas Tech, Butler,
Large Pool Considerations: Murray St.
- Alabama has more ownership (51.3%) than Virginia Tech (48.7%) but Virginia Tech is a small Vegas favorite (-2) and has a higher projection (55.7%)
- Butler has higher ownership (60.1%) even as a 10-seed but they are also a Vegas favorite (-1.5) and have a higher projection (58.2%) than Arkansas (41.8%) so, go with the popular lower seed
Round of 32
Picks: Villanova, Wichita St., Texas Tech, Purdue
Large Pool Considerations: Butler
- Villanova’s projection is 10x more than Virginia Tech
- Wichita St. and West Virginia is a coin-flip game according to the projections (46% to 45.1%) so, go with the team that has lower ownership which is Wichita St. (50.1% to 42.7%)
- Both Texas Tech (53.9%-Proj/56.4%-Own) and Florida (32.5%-Proj/34.6%-Own) fall in line with their projection and ownership so, go with the higher projection which is Texas Tech
- Give some consideration to Butler over Purdue in large pools as Butler has a 17% projection and just a 10.8% ownership but with Purdue having a more than 4x projection advantage stick with them in smaller pools
Round of 16
Picks: Villanova, Purdue
Large Pool Considerations: Texas Tech
- Villanova’s projection (68.1%) is over 5x higher than Wichita St. (12.1%) and Villanova’s ownership is within about 10% of their projection, stick with the favorite
- Purdue holds a 2x projection advantage over Texas Tech and Texas Tech only has a small difference between their projection (23.4%) and ownership (18.9%) not enough to fade the favorite (at least in smaller pools)
Round of 8 (Advance to Final 4)
Pick: Villanova
Contrarian: West Virginia, Purdue, Butler
Fade: Wichita St.
- Villanova is too strong with more than a 2x projection advantage over Purdue and only a 12.6% deficit in projection compared to ownership which is not enough to fade them
- While I have Wichita St. over West Virginia early in the bracket, West Virginia has a better chance to beat Villanova than Wichita St. does
- Anyone not named Villanova should be considered contrarian in the East
Midwest
Round of 64
Picks: Kansas, Seton Hall, New Mexico St., Auburn, Arizona St/Syracuse, Michigan St., Rhode Island, Duke
Large Pool Considerations: Penn
- Penn has the best chance of any 16-seed to beat a 1-seed and Kansas has been known to exit the tourney early, not worth considering in smaller pools but could be worth a shot in a large pool
- Seton Hall is the Vegas favorite (-2) and has the higher projection (57.9%) yet North Carolina St. has a higher ownership (55.4%), so go with Seton Hall
- Clemson is only 2x more likely to beat New Mexico St. and New Mexico St has a higher projection (33.2%) than their ownership (28.0%)
- TCU has a much higher ownership (74.7%) compared to their projection (60.9%), so go with the Arizona St./Syracuse winner
- Rhode Island is a Vegas favorite (-1.5) and has a higher projection (52.7%) but Oklahoma has a slightly higher ownership (50.3%) so, go with Rhode Island
Round of 32
Picks: Seton Hall, Auburn, Michigan St., Duke
Large Pool Considerations: None
- Kansas has a far higher ownership (89.1%) than their projection (67.4%) and is only 3.5x more likely to advance based on the projections, so go with the upset either in this round or the next round
- Auburn has a projection (48.0%) close to their ownership (50.2%) and is almost 4x more likely to win based on the projection
- Michigan St. has a significantly higher projection than any potential opponent in this round
- Duke’s projection is 9x higher than Rhode Island
Round of 16
Picks: Auburn, Duke
Large Pool Considerations: Seton Hall
- Auburn has a projection (21.1%) far greater than their ownership (8.4%) and their projection exceeds Seton Hall by more than 2x. If you didn’t pick Seton Hall to beat Kansas then go with Auburn over them here
- The ownership gap between Duke and Michigan St. (49.1% to 43.1%) is a lot closer than the projection gap (52.6% to 33.6%) which means go with Duke (Note that the winner of this game should be your Final 4 participant from the Midwest in smaller pools)
Round of 8 (Advance to Final 4)
Pick: Duke
Contrarian: Auburn, Michigan St (although they are not really contrarian)
Fade: Kansas, Clemson
- Auburn’s projection drop significantly this round down to 7.2% which is 5x lower than Duke’s (36.4%) and Duke’s ownership (30.5%) is actually lower than their projection
Final 4
South: Cincinnati (Proj: 13.3% / Own: 4.7%) vs. Midwest: North Carolina (Proj: 11.6% / Own: 15.2%)
East: Villanova (Proj: 33.6% / Own: 35.1%) vs. West: Duke (Proj: 19.4% / Own: 17.5%)
Picks: Cincinnati, Villanova
- The numbers say to go with Cincinnati as they have a higher projection (13.3% to 11.6%) and a lower ownership (4.7% to 15.2%)
- The projections for Villanova and Duke are close to their ownerships so go with the team that has almost 2x higher projection (Villanova)
Championship
Cincinnati (Proj: 6.2% / Own: 1.8%) vs. Villanova (Proj: 21.4% / Own: 17.4%)
Pick: Villanova
- Both teams have a higher projection than ownership but Villanova has a significantly higher (3x) projection
Large Pool Considerations: Cincinnati, Gonzaga, Purdue, Ohio St.
I hope you enjoyed my March Madness writeups and that they opened your mind to a different way of thinking about your how to fill out your bracket. If you have any feedback or want to let me know if my advice helped you finish in the money in your pool hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot.
Let’s hope we all have “One Shining Moment”!
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