Using a DFS Mindset for Your March Madness Bracket – Part II

Welcome to Part II of my “Using a DFS mindset for your March Madness bracket” series. If you haven’t read Part I, I strongly suggest you do so to get the theory behind the picks. Hours of preparation went into this article pulling numbers from various websites that I referenced in Part 1. In additional to pulling Vegas lines for the Round of 64, I have also pulled projected (“Proj”) win percentages from FiveThirtyEight, KenPom and ThePowerRank. I have also pulled “Who Picked Whom” (“Own”) data from both ESPN and Yahoo. All of this data has been averaged and put into the grids you will see at the top of each region.

Following the grids will be my pick recommendations for an “Office Pool” sized (50-250 entries) pool for the first two round and then some suggestions on teams to consider to carry into the Final 4 depending on how contrarian you need/want to be depending on your pool size. What I am looking for is where the biggest gaps are between the “Proj” win percentage for each round compared to the “Own” picked percentage by the public. When the gap is large is when we have an opportunity to make a smart contrarian pick. Well, that is enough time setting the stage, let’s dance!

East

Rd 64 Rd 32 Rd 16 Rd 8 Rd 4 Title
Seed Team Vegas Proj Own Proj Own Proj Own Proj Own Proj Own Proj Own
1 Villanova TBD 98.4% 98.2% 76.5% 89.7% 53.2% 79.5% 36.5% 45.3% 20.4% 29.2% 13.1% 15.3%
16 Mount St. Mary 0.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
16 New Orleans 1.2% 1.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
8 Wisconsin -5 73.0% 68.9% 19.5% 6.7% 9.0% 3.9% 4.2% 1.4% 1.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4%
9 Virginia Tech 27.0% 31.1% 3.8% 2.3% 0.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
5 Virginia -7.5 82.3% 78.0% 46.3% 41.3% 18.5% 6.3% 10.1% 2.1% 4.5% 0.9% 2.1% 0.4%
12 UNC-Wilmington 17.7% 22.0% 4.2% 6.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
4 Florida -10 86.0% 84.6% 46.4% 47.5% 17.4% 7.5% 9.1% 2.6% 3.5% 1.1% 1.8% 0.5%
13 East Tenn St. 14.0% 15.4% 2.8% 3.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
6 SMU TBD 79.4% 81.8% 42.8% 36.4% 21.4% 8.2% 8.2% 1.9% 3.3% 0.6% 1.7% 0.3%
11 Providence 12.1% 18.3% 3.4% 3.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
11 USC 9.4% 18.3% 2.7% 3.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
3 Baylor -12.5 89.0% 90.4% 49.7% 57.0% 25.5% 14.9% 10.0% 4.7% 4.0% 1.9% 1.8% 0.6%
14 New Mexico St. 11.0% 9.7% 1.7% 2.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
7 South Carolina -1.5 49.7% 42.0% 13.4% 3.4% 4.6% 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
10 Marquette 50.3% 58.0% 14.5% 4.3% 4.9% 1.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
2 Duke -19 94.8% 96.8% 71.5% 90.6% 41.9% 72.1% 18.6% 39.6% 8.1% 26.4% 4.3% 12.6%
15 Troy 5.2% 3.2% 0.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%

Round of 64:

Picks: Villanova, Wisconsin, Virginia, Florida, SMU, Baylor, South Carolina, Duke

Large Pool Considerations: None

Round of 32:

Picks: Villanova, Virginia, SMU, Duke

Large Pool Considerations: Wisconsin, South Carolina

Round of 16:

Picks: Villanova, Duke

Large Pool Considerations: SMU over Duke

Round of 8 (Advance to Final 4)

Pick: Villanova

Contrarian: SMU or Baylor

Fade: Duke

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West

Rd 64 Rd 32 Rd 16 Rd 8 Rd 4 Title
Seed Team Vegas Proj Own Proj Own Proj Own Proj Own Proj Own Proj Own
1 Gonzaga -22.5 98.7% 96.7% 86.8% 88.2% 62.5% 62.8% 47.8% 35.3% 31.3% 15.2% 22.0% 8.5%
16 South Dakota St. 1.3% 3.4% 0.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1%
8 Northwestern 46.6% 49.4% 5.9% 5.0% 1.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
9 Vanderbilt -1 53.4% 50.6% 7.2% 4.8% 2.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
5 Notre Dame -7 77.0% 83.0% 27.2% 47.2% 7.0% 17.1% 3.4% 5.5% 1.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.6%
12 Princeton 23.0% 17.0% 4.5% 4.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
4 West Virginia -14 91.1% 88.9% 66.2% 45.3% 25.7% 14.4% 16.6% 5.3% 8.6% 1.7% 4.9% 0.7%
13 Bucknell 8.9% 11.2% 2.4% 2.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
6 Maryland -2 50.1% 56.8% 16.3% 19.8% 4.8% 4.3% 0.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2%
11 Xavier 49.9% 43.2% 16.6% 14.0% 4.9% 2.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
3 Florida St. -12 88.8% 82.7% 64.0% 58.7% 31.2% 15.4% 9.1% 5.8% 3.3% 1.6% 1.5% 0.6%
14 Florida Gulf Coast 11.2% 17.3% 3.2% 6.4% 0.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
7 St. Mary’s -4 71.3% 54.4% 35.3% 6.9% 21.7% 3.4% 8.1% 0.9% 3.4% 0.3% 1.5% 0.1%
10 VCU 28.7% 45.7% 8.9% 3.6% 3.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
2 Arizona -16.5 94.6% 96.1% 55.5% 87.2% 33.3% 70.9% 10.9% 42.3% 4.8% 16.5% 2.2% 7.0%
15 North Dakota 5.4% 4.0% 0.3% 1.4% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%

Round of 64:

Picks: Gonzaga, Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Xavier, Florida St., St. Mary’s, Arizona

Large Pool Considerations: Princeton

Round of 32

Picks: Gonzaga, West Virginia, Florida St., St. Mary’s

Large Pool Considerations: None

Round of 16

Picks: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

Large Pool Considerations: West Virginia

Round of 8 (Advance to Final 4)

Pick: Gonzaga

Contrarian: West Virginia (St. Mary’s could be an option in a very large pool)

Fade: Arizona

Midwest

Rd 64 Rd 32 Rd 16 Rd 8 Rd 4 Title
Seed Team Vegas Proj Own Proj Own Proj Own Proj Own Proj Own Proj Own
1 Kansas TBD 97.0% 97.3% 77.3% 88.7% 49.1% 76.3% 30.6% 54.5% 16.4% 26.6% 7.2% 13.0%
16 NC Central 2.2% 2.8% 0.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
16 UC Davis 0.7% 2.8% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
8 Miami -2 53.6% 45.1% 12.7% 3.6% 4.4% 1.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
9 Michigan St. 46.5% 55.0% 9.7% 5.8% 3.1% 3.2% 0.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3%
5 Iowa St. -6 80.1% 77.8% 42.2% 41.0% 19.3% 8.3% 9.9% 3.2% 4.4% 0.8% 1.7% 0.4%
12 Nevada 19.9% 22.2% 5.2% 5.8% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
4 Purdue -9 84.2% 85.8% 48.7% 48.3% 22.5% 8.0% 11.8% 3.3% 5.4% 1.0% 2.0% 15.3%
13 Vermont 15.8% 14.2% 4.2% 3.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
6 Creighton -1 61.8% 60.2% 25.8% 14.3% 9.6% 3.2% 3.6% 0.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
11 Rhode Island 38.2% 39.9% 12.3% 10.0% 3.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 5.1% 0.0% 0.1%
3 Oregon -15 92.0% 93.0% 60.4% 72.8% 26.5% 30.6% 11.7% 10.9% 5.1% 3.3% 1.8% 1.4%
14 Iona 8.0% 7.0% 1.2% 1.7% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Michigan -2.5 55.1% 74.4% 21.6% 23.8% 11.8% 13.7% 4.7% 4.7% 1.9% 1.7% 0.4% 1.0%
10 Oklahoma St. 44.9% 25.6% 16.1% 4.0% 8.4% 1.6% 3.4% 0.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
2 Louisville -20 96.1% 95.8% 62.0% 69.9% 40.3% 47.6% 20.7% 18.3% 10.5% 5.7% 4.4% 2.4%
15 Jacksonville St. 3.9% 4.3% 0.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%

Round of 64:

Picks: Kansas, Miami, Iowa St., Purdue, Rhode Island, Oregon, Oklahoma St., Louisville

Large Pool Considerations: None

Round of 32

Picks: Kansas, Purdue, Oregon, Louisville

Large Pool Considerations: None

Round of 16

Picks: Purdue, Louisville

Large Pool Considerations: Oregon

Round of 8 (Advance to Final 4)

Pick: Louisville

Contrarian: Purdue

Fade: Kansas

South

Rd 64 Rd 32 Rd 16 Rd 8 Rd 4 Title
Seed Team Vegas Proj Own Proj Own Proj Own Proj Own Proj Own Proj Own
1 North Carolina -27 98.3% 96.7% 81.4% 92.6% 59.1% 83.1% 34.0% 43.5% 19.7% 26.2% 9.1% 14.9%
16 Texas Southern 1.7% 3.3% 0.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1%
8 Arkansas -1 51.9% 48.6% 9.8% 2.6% 4.2% 1.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
9 Seton Hall 48.1% 51.4% 8.7% 2.7% 3.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
5 Minnesota 54.3% 57.8% 20.6% 19.4% 5.3% 2.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2%
12 Middle Tenn -1 45.7% 42.2% 15.8% 13.6% 3.9% 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
4 Butler -11 89.1% 90.2% 60.7% 63.3% 23.5% 9.3% 9.9% 2.9% 4.1% 1.2% 1.3% 0.5%
13 Winthrop 10.9% 9.9% 2.5% 2.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
6 Cincinnati TBD 63.5% 78.8% 29.2% 12.6% 11.4% 3.2% 5.1% 1.0% 2.1% 10.3% 0.5% 0.2%
11 Kansas State 19.0% 21.3% 6.7% 2.1% 2.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
11 Wake Forest 17.2% 21.3% 5.9% 2.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
3 UCLA -18 94.0% 94.7% 57.5% 82.5% 22.9% 45.4% 10.6% 25.5% 5.1% 16.0% 1.8% 8.6%
14 Kent St. 6.0% 5.3% 0.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
7 Dayton 26.5% 33.6% 5.8% 3.2% 2.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
10 Wichita St. -6 73.5% 66.5% 30.9% 11.4% 18.4% 3.7% 9.5% 1.4% 4.9% 0.6% 2.1% 0.3%
2 Kentucky -20 96.8% 96.4% 62.7% 83.2% 41.5% 44.4% 24.4% 22.1% 14.0% 13.4% 6.2% 7.2%
15 Northern Kentucky 3.2% 3.7% 0.2% 1.1% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%

Round of 64:

Picks: North Carolina, Arkansas, Middle Tennessee St., Butler, Cincinnati, UCLA, Wichita St., Kentucky

Large Pool Considerations: Kansas St./Wake Forest

Round of 32:

Picks: North Carolina, Butler, Cincinnati, Kentucky

Large Pool Considerations: Wichita St.

Round of 16:

Picks: North Carolina, Kentucky

Large Pool Consideration: Butler

Round of 8 (Advance to Final 4)

Pick: Kentucky

Contrarian: Wichita St.

Fade: UCLA

Final 4

East: Villanova (Proj: 20.4% / Own: 29.2%) vs. West: Gonzaga (Proj: 31.3% / Own: 15.2%)

Midwest: Louisville (Proj: 10.5% / Own: 5.7%) vs. South: Kentucky (Proj: 14.0% / Own: 13.4%)

Picks: Gonzaga, Kentucky

Championship

Gonzaga (Proj: 22.0% / Own: 8.5%) vs. Kentucky (Proj: 6.2% / Own: 7.2%)

Pick: Gonzaga

Large Pool Considerations: West Virginia, Louisville

I hope you enjoyed my March Madness writeups and that they opened your mind to a different way of thinking about your how to fill out your bracket. If you have any feedback or want to let me know if my advice helped you finish in the money in your pool hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot.

Let’s hope we all have “One Shining Moment”!

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