Way Too Early NFL Team Rankings by Tier

Now that we have crowned the NFL champion of Super Bowl 50, the attention has now turned to next season and who will be in Super Bowl 51. With that being said, it is clearly too early to say that any team is definitively going to be in the tiers I have ranked below without having the reference of what that team does in free agency, the draft, with trades, the release of key players, the development of younger players and key injuries in training camp or the offseason. Nevertheless, this is the way I see things shaking out as of right now with each team’s roster returning to full health. Here are the way I see the teams shaking out:

Tier 1: Super Bowl Favorites

1. New England Patriots

   • The Patriots clearly go into next season as one of the top teams as their key players will be back, and they will also be another year older. They also possess two variables that have made them so consistently elite over the past 15 years. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Throw in that they retain both coordinators and get some key players back from injury and they will be back.

2. Seattle Seahawks

   • The first half of last season was a disaster as Seattle didn’t look like the team they used to be. However this offseason they will have some more time to sort out their offensive line issues and figure out how to better utilize tight end, Jimmy Graham. There may be no Marshawn Lynch, but Thomas Rawls proved he could provide similar production at a fraction of the cost.

3. Carolina Panthers

   • After losing in Super Bowl 50 and finally getting exposed for their lack of playmakers on the outside and blocking on the inside, the Panthers should have an offseason to correct some of those issues. One will be helped with the return of receiver Kelvin Benjamin while the other can be fixed through the draft or free agency. Josh Norman will also be a key piece to resign.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers

   • The Steelers will get back Le’Veon Bell to add to their dynamic offensive assault and will most likely add a tight end via the draft. Another season to help solve their cornerback issues and the return of the key skills position players to good health should be enough to put the Steelers among the favorites. Plus they only really need to hold teams under 28 points per game.

5. Denver Broncos

   • The Broncos should be back with their defense once again at the forefront. However, one cannot realistically expect the team to stay fully healthy on defense once again, and who knows what is in store for that offense. One key note here is that DeMarcus Ware may be a cap casualty, and Malik Jackson, Von Miller, and Brock Osweiler are free agents. Changes could be ahead.

Tier 2: Conference Championship Contender

6. Green Bay Packers

   • The Packers should be back just by getting Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb back, as well as the development of Jeff Janis in a big spot during a big game. As usual, the team needs to make improvements on the offensive line to help protect Aaron Rodgers, and on defense improvements should come with Clay Matthews sliding back over to outside linebacker and Mike Daniels having resigned.

7. Arizona Cardinals

   • The Cardinals will be back next year and with breakout rookie David Johnson assuming the full-time starter role their offense should improve. They also will get a boost with Tyrann Mathieu back, but what remains to be seen is if Carson Palmer can perform in the playoffs or if the results were skewed due to his finger issue. Until we know, they are in the second tier.

8. Cincinnati Bengals

   • The Bengals once again proved all the critics right by committing stupid penalties and being undisciplined when the game mattered most. They had the game won and gave Pittsburgh the win. Next season Andy Dalton will be back and we still have yet to see if the Dalton we saw last season was real or a mirage. We may never know with offensive coordinator Hue Jackson leaving for the job in Cleveland. One note is receivers Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones are both free agents.

9. Kansas City Chiefs

   • The Chiefs started last season 1-5 before winning their final 10 games as well as their first playoff game before getting bounced at New England. Next season will be tough for them to keep their full core intact and Tamba Hali could retire or be a cap casualty, but either way, this team can be stronger next season with a full year of running back Jamaal Charles, as well as reinforcements along the offensive line.

10. Minnesota Vikings

    • The Vikings had some really bad luck as they were just a short field goal away from on of the top 10 kickers in the league from making the divisional round of the playoffs. Coach Mike Zimmer has done a great job building and coaching this team and they are clearly on the rise with an outstanding defensive line led by Everson Griffen and solid defensive backs in Xavier Rhodes and Harrison Smith.

Tier 3: Playoff Team

11. Indianapolis Colts

    • Last season the Colts were everyone’s pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and that turned out to be completely wrong as the Colts were on the outside looking in of the playoffs after finishing 8-8 and not winning the pathetic AFC South. However, this season offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton is gone and Rob Chudzinski is certain to play more open with Andrew Luck. The question is can Luck survive behind a bad line again?

12. New York Jets

    1. After trading for receiver Brandon Marshall and revamping their defense the Jets face some question marks heading into this offseason. They are no longer the underdog and are going to be hunted by most teams, have a bloated contract with a declining Darrelle Revis, have limited cap space to fix their team, and face certain regression from career journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. Overall they are a variable.

13. Dallas Cowboys

    • Unfortunately, for the Cowboys 2015 represented a lost season with Tony Romo missing a majority of the year with his fractured collarbone. Furthermore, it is even more unfortunate when you consider he has a few years left before the decline makes him unworthy of the starting spot. The good news is 2016 is unlikely to see much decline in Romo and Dez Bryant should be at full strength. Another plus is their elite offensive line returning.

14. Buffalo Bills

    • The Bills struggled on defense in 2015 which was a surprise considering how well they fared in 2014 and defensive guru Rex Ryan coming in as head coach. Next year Ryan figures to get more players that fit his schemes, led by the release of high paid veteran defensive end Mario Williams, who seemed disinterested down the stretch. Tyrod Taylor is a variable at quarterback next season, which makes this team tough to figure.

Tier 4: Just Outside Playoffs

15. Houston Texans

    • Last season the Texans got lucky with Andrew Luck‘s injury and the poor play of the Colts overall that let the Texans grab hold of the division at 9-7. In 2016, they cannot assume they will be that lucky and step one will be getting a true quarterback to groom or plug and play as Brian Hoyer clearly isn’t the answer with perhaps the most brutal quarterbacking performance ever stuck in everyone’s memory.

16. Baltimore Ravens

    • The Ravens injuries and inconsistencies plagued a normally consistent team and led to an unexpectedly horrendous season. The only silver lining was that injuries were the main problem as they lost virtually every key cog they had on their roster and because of their bad season they get a top talent they normally wouldn’t have a chance at in the draft. The return of Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett and Terrell Suggs alone should make this an eight-win team.

17. Washington Redskins

    • Some people will argue against this ranking and say the Redskins are on the rise due to the improvements on quarterback Kirk Cousins and the new found cap space without Robert Griffin III on their roster. However next season the Eagles and Giants figure to be vastly improved and the Cowboys will be a much better team with Tony Romo back. Throw in the Redskins will face a much tougher schedule and they are due for some regression.

18. Oakland Raiders

    • Derek Carr suffered through some inconsistencies last season which is to be expected of a young signal caller. The real gem of last season was Khalil Mack who established himself as one of the most feared pass rushers and run stuffers in the league. He may be the best young talent in the NFL and the Raiders are for sure on the rise. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if this team made the playoffs in 2016. Carr’s consistency will be key.
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    Detroit Lions

    • If Calvin Johnson‘s retirement holds then this team needs help at wide receiver and with Johnson’s cap hold off the books then they should have no problem doing so. New general manager Bob Quinn should be a terrific fit for building this team and being from New England, there will be an emphasis on building a strong team from players one through 53, but Matthew Stafford‘s play late should give the team confidence going forward.

20. Philadelphia Eagles

    • The Eagles firing Chip Kelly will be good for the players they have and the extensions they have agreed to are important as it sends a message that the organization values developing their own home-grown players and that the personnel will not be a revolving door. Quarterback is still a question mark with Sam Bradford not performing very well and they still have needs at receiver and at corner.

21. Atlanta Falcons

    • Atlanta has been a perennial underachiever with Matt Ryan continuously struggling late in the season. The good news is Julio Jones is probably the second best receiver in the league behind Antonio Brown and is basically unstoppable when Ryan can have the correct ball placement. The key will be Ryan’s improvement taking care of the ball as his inconsistencies have held this team back. They also need improvement in personnel on their defense, particularly rushing the passer.

22. New York Giants

    • Perhaps no one in the NFL has a more promising young receiver than the Giants in Odell Beckham Jr., but after that, the young talent on this team is really non-existent. This team has holes at virtually every position and Eli Manning is closer to the end of his career than the beginning. Retaining Ben McAdoo as head coach was smart to avoid putting Eli through another offensive system, but they still need an improvement in personnel, big time.

Tier 5: Bottom Dwellers

23. New Orleans Saints

    • Every year is similar for the Saints. Drew Brees throws for a lot of yards, but their defense gets virtually no stops and puts unnecessary pressure on one of the better quarterbacks in the last decade. Brees’s cap hit is going to have to be trimmed or he will have to be released, but their spending habits need to be curbed too. They routinely spend when they have little to no cap space and end up pushing money into the future. Time to get that mess cleaned up.

24. San Diego Chargers

    • Reports have come out that Philip Rivers considered retirement before last season and after this season, you have to think he is seriously thinking about it even more now despite signing the new deal. There is no doubt he will be back on 2016, but beyond that is a mystery and with very little help on the offensive line he is taking a pounding. Rivers does get back Keenan Allen next year, but Gates is a year older and Melvin Gordon needs to pan out to take the heat off of Rivers, who routinely had to throw over 40 times despite a porous offensive line.

25. St. Louis Rams

    • Some will disagree with the Rams being placed here because of how good their defense is and how they beat the Seahawks and Cardinals last year, but Jeff Fisher‘s teams routinely finish around .500. Throw in the fact Case Keenum is their starting quarterback and this team has a few gaping holes. On the positive side though they have Todd Gurley in the backfield which will help any quarterback.

26. Miami Dolphins

    • Last season was not how the Dolphins planned it back when they spent all that money on free agent acquisition Ndamukong Suh. Suh turned out to be a bust looking bored at times and struggling with the humidity in Miami. Throw in Ryan Tannehill‘s antics of berating practice squad teammates on the scout team and this team has a lot of internal issues to fix before they contend.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars

    • This is one I am not sure about. On one hand Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Julius Thomas, and T.J. Yeldon showed their offensive potential while on the other hand they once again finish below .500 and in third place in a weak division. I think this team could make a run at the division title next year if they make some key improvements on the back end of the defense, and this team is on the rise, despite their weak results in recent years.

28. Chicago Bears

    • One team that I am not sold on is Bears who overachieved in John Fox’s first year as the man in charge. Most of that success was due to the improvement of Jay Cutler at taking care of the ball and a large part of that was due to offensive genius Adam Gase, who since has left to be the head man in Miami. With Alshon Jeffery a question mark to come back, and Matt Forte on his way out being replaced by Jeremy Langford this team could struggle with firepower.

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    • Jameis Winston had a better year than even the biggest Winston supporter could have imagined. The most impressive part was the control, leadership, and accountability he seems to possess which is rare for a young quarterback. This team has some promising parts on offense led by stud receiver Mike Evans and although Lovie Smith did not deserve to get canned this early he isn’t really a fit for this team right now.

Tier 6: #1 Pick Contenders

30. Tennessee Titans

    • Tennesse has some things going for them with a young quarterback in place, and some solid veterans like Jurrell Casey and Jason McCourty on the defensive side of the ball, but they struggled to protect Marcus Mariota which will not be acceptable going forward. Their top pick will undoubtedly be spent on an offensive tackle or wide receiver to make Mariota’s life easier and if they can hit on those spots this team could be back in the mix in a couple years.

31. San Francisco 49ers

    • Chip Kelly taking over was supposed to be Colin Kaepernick‘s lifeline, but he apparently hasn’t pined for him and Kaepernick wants out. There is no doubt if Kelly doesn’t believe in Kaepernick even slightly he will be out due to his enormous cap hit and the lack of guaranteed money and the lack of penalty they face for cutting him. The 49ers need a lot of help and it could be a while before they are back.

32. Cleveland Browns

    • The most dysfunctional job in the NFL continues to be in Cleveland as the Browns make a mockery of consistency and success with their atrocious decision-making and lack of ability to be on the same page in their organization. Jimmy Haslam wanted Johnny Manziel and now he has all the problems that came with him. This team continues to lack a starting caliber quarterback and their drafts have been poor leading their continued time as the laughing stock in the NFL.

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