As we head into week six, our pool for making “breakout” and “fake out” selections is not as deep as it has been previously. This mirrors the availability of true season difference makers on the waiver wire. Due to the amount of injuries suffered in week five, some breakout selections will be more short term options.
Week Five Review:
From a weekly perspective, all five players mentioned in the week five post were “fake outs”. My suggested breakouts included:1) Taylor Heinicke, who completed 20 of 41 passes for 248 yards and zero touchdowns(with two interceptions); 2) Kenny Gainwell- 2 rushes for 16 yards with one catch for 8 yards; and 3) Darnell Mooney-3 catches for 35 yards. While I am high on each of these players for the rest of the season, week five was simply not their day.
My two “fade outs” were C.J. Uzomah and Randall Cobb. Uzomah had two catches(on two targets) for 16 yards, while Cobb had two catches( on three targets) for 30 yards. Each of these results will likely happen more often than not. TEs only had an 11 percent target share of Joe Burrow’s pass attempts in 2020, while Davante Adams had a thirty percent target share last year. On Sunday, Adams secured 16 targets(of 39 total), and caught 11 of these for 206 yards and a touchdown.
Break Outs:
The Only Waiver Article You Need for Week 6
Kadarius Toney/Rondale Moore(WR Giants/WR Cardinals)
In regards to my earlier comment about “season changing” players, both of these rookie receivers have the ability to grow within their role as the season progresses. In week five, Toney registered 10 catches(on 13 targets) for 189 yards and zero touchdowns. Meanwhile, Moore had 97 total yards(38 rushing ) and 5 catches.
Obviously, both players have tremendous upside. The more difficult question to answer, is what does their role look like later in the season. With both Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard missing the last two games(hamstring injuries), Toney has amassed 16 catches(on 22 targets) for 267 yards and zero touchdowns. He also played in a season high 78 percent of the snaps in week four.
One would assume that Toney has earned a significant role, but both Slayton and Shepard returned to practice on Wednesday. If they wind up playing in week six, the snap counts and target shares will be worth monitoring.
Moore played in his highest percentage of snaps on the season in week five, 48 percent. With that being said, one must wonder what it will take to garner more. The Cardinals seem to be insistent on playing A.J. Green. Green has played in at least 79 percent of the snaps in every game this season.
Christian Kirk’s usage declined from 72 percent of the snaps in week four, to 54 percent in week five. The most direct route for extended playing time for Moore, seems to be through a diminished role for Kirk. The other option is simply efficient performance through minimal snaps. While I see a breakout for both players, consistent performance may be hard to come by.
Darrel Williams(RB-Chiefs)/Devontae Booker(RB-Giants)
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As mentioned in the opening, week five injuries are leading to shorter term breakouts. While
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been placed on short term IR, a timetable for Saquon Barkley has currently not been set.
In their stead, Williams had 5 rushes for 27 yards and added three catches(on five targets) for an additional 18 yards. Meanwhile, Booker had 16 carries for 42 yards and a touchdown. He also added 3 catches(on 4 targets) for 16 yards and an additional touchdown.
Although I would prioritize both running backs to the top of my waiver wire rankings, I like Williams better. Obviously, he is simply in a better offense. In addition, he had carved a role out for himself prior to CEH’s injury. Over the last three weeks, he has rushed 22 times for 87 yards and a touchdown. He has also recorded five catches for 25 yards. It seems like Williams will have more of a long term role.
Fake Outs:
Embed from Getty ImagesJameis Winston(QB-Saints)
In week five, Winston completed 15 of 30 passes for 279 yards and four touchdowns. Heading into a week six bye, these type of numbers do not seem to be repeatable for Winston. This has nothing to do with arm talent, but is simply based on opportunity and a bizarre first half ending.
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To end the first half, Winston completed a 49 yard Hail Mary to Marquez Calloway. While 230 yards and three touchdowns would still be solid, the Hail Mary will prove to be hard to repeat.
The biggest takeaway from Sunday’s game, was the sheer passing volume. The Saints have leaned on their running game and defense to obtain a 3-2 record. Although 30 passes doesn’t seem like a lot, Winston’s previous high on the season had only been 24. In addition, Winston had thrown for 150 yards or less in three of the first four games. Although Winston’s volume could remain somewhat elevated, it will be hard to trust him as anything more than a streaming option.
David Njoku(TE-Browns)
In week five, Njoku had 7 catches(on 7 targets) for 149 yards and a touchdown. In three previous games this season, Njoku had 7 catches(on 10 targets) for 111 yards and no touchdowns. His big day came at the expense of fellow tight end Austin Hooper.
Although Njoku has talent, it will be hard to find consistent results in a three-headed tight end committee( Harrison Bryant being the third option). Baker Mayfield is currently the fantasy QB23, in an offense that prefers to rely on the run.
In three of five games this year, Mayfield has thrown for less than 250 yards. In the two games that he threw for more than 300 yards, he faced the high powered Chiefs’ and Chargers’ offenses. While Njoku will likely have other good games, the consistency will simply be hard to find.
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