Over his seven starts as rookie, here are Lamar Jackson‘s weekly finishes as a fantasy quarterback (ESPN scoring).
Week 11: QB13
Week 12: QB15
Week 13: QB11
Week 14: QB14
Week 15: QB9
Week 16: QB17
Week 17: QB5
The Ravens completely revamped their offense to suit Jackson, as he averaged less than 23 pass attempts per game over those seven games with averaging 17 rushing attempts per contest. Joe Flacco will be gone, and in an effort to continue the Jackson-focused plan Greg Roman was promoted to offensive coordinator this week. Roman has a reputation as a good orchestrator of the run game, from his time as an offensive coordinator with the San Francisco 49ers (2011-2014) and Buffalo Bills (2015-2016).
The data backs up a run-focused approach from Roman.
https://twitter.com/DBro_FFB/status/1083728650418167808
Jackson’s running ability automatically raises his fantasy floor, and it’s reflected in having the “best worst game” (15.9 fantasy points) among quarterbacks who made at least five starts in 2018. At a certain point, anything notable he does as a passer is a bonus.
Roman worked with mobile quarterbacks in his previous stints as offensive coordinator, which informs Baltimore’s decision to promote him. In two full seasons as the 49ers’ starter, Colin Kaepernick averaged 98 rushing attempts and 582 rushing yards per season. He finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in 2013, and a top-20 fantasy signal caller in 2014.
Roman had Tyrod Taylor for 29 of 32 games over the 2015 and 2016 seasons. He averaged just under 100 carries and 574 rushing yards per season along with 10 combined touchdowns on the ground. Taylor was a top-15 fantasy quarterback in 2015, and he was a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2016.
Jackson will have to be a more prolific passer to reach his full potential, and opposing teams will now have a full offseason to study his tape and find ways to expose him. There’s also the added injury risk attached to his running a lot, which there were flashes of when he became the starter.
Jackson delivered top-10 fantasy quarterback production after taking over as the starter during his rookie season, and its easy to then project that out to occur over a full season without a second thought looking to his second season.
The upside is there for Jackson to finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback next year, and he’ll surely deliver on that upside a lot of weeks. But at this point a full breakout feels like it’s another year away.
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