Week 15 is now upon us. That means another chance to win big playing DFS. Here are my picks for the optimal Yahoo prices and strategy involving their DFS format. Article sections include Home and Dome, Preferred Positional Price Points, Best Bet Bargains, Dominant Defenses, and Super Stacks.
The main Yahoo slate does not include the Thursday games or Monday Night Football.
For more information on Yahoo NFL DFS scoring setting and lineup requirements, check out the Week 1 article.
Home and Dome
There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and being indoors takes that element away. Five teams play Home and Dome during the Week 14 Sunday slate:
Arizona Cardinals vs Cleveland Browns
Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Rams
Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints vs Indianapolis Colts
Preferred Position Price Points
QB – $30-$31
Jimmy Garoppolo SF vs ATL $31
There is a reason why Jimmy Garoppolo is priced at a season-high $31. Coming off of a monster performance last week, he now faces the Falcons defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to QBs in 2019. Furthermore, the 49ers have the highest implied total on the Sunday slate at 29.25 points. Look for Garoppolo, and a fully healthy compliment of receiving options, to put up the points against Atlanta.
Ryan Tannehill TEN vs HOU $30
There is perhaps no QB in the NFL with more of a hot streak than Ryan Tannehill. In his 7 starts of 2019, he has failed to throw multiple TD passes, only once. And even that game, Tannehill produced a rushing TD and a solid fantasy performance. In week 14, the Titans take on the Texans in an important divisional matchup. Houston has given up the 6th most fantasy points to QB this season. Tannehill’s hot streak should continue.
RB / WR – $26 – $28
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I’m trying something a little differently here. There is an RB and a WR that are both priced at $28. I believe these players are perhaps some of the best values on the slate.
RB – Nick Chubb CLE @ ARI $28
While it has been a season to forget in Cleveland, we cannot discount what Nick Chubb has been doing. He is leading the league in carries, and while his passing game role has diminished, that has been enough to sustain a productive season. Chubb presents weekly TD upside as he has received the 5th most caries from inside the 5-yard line during 2019.
RB – Saquon Barkley NYG vs MIA $26
It has not been the banner season that everyone was expecting from Saquon Barkley. The low point came about a month ago when he only produced 1 rushing yard on 13 carries. Barkley at least caught 5 passes in that game to at least provide a floor performance. But still, it was quite concerning that the young RB had not looked like himself since suffering an early-season injury. In his defense, that 1-yard rushing match came against his rival New York team, a unit that has allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to RB this season. In week 15, his matchup is on the opposite end of the spectrum as the Dolphins have surrendered the 6th most fantasy points to the position.
WR – Kenny Golladay DET vs TB $28
It’s a Home and Dome game for Kenny Golladay and the Lions. Not only that, but Golladay has the matchup to exploit the environment. The Buccaneers have surrendered the most fantasy points to WRs this season. The only concern is the QB situation in Detroit. However, over the last 2 weeks, with David Blough under center, Golladay scored a combined 38.6 fantasy points. In week 15, look for that Blough-Golladay connection to hit again.
WR – Julio Jones ATL @ SF $27
The 49ers have been a defense to avoid for DFS purposes all season. However, in week 15, they will be without 5 starting players on that unit including 3 of the 5 starting defensive backs. That includes top cornerback Richard Sherman. With easier coverage matchups, Julio Jones should be able to produce fine numbers. Calvin Ridley‘s injury, while it does open up more targets for Jones, it also draws more attention towards him. The San Francisco injuries mitigate that. Where Jones may be the best play is in tournaments where people may be scared off by the 49ers matchup.
TE – $20
Zach Ertz PHI @ WAS
Zach Ertz‘s most productive games have come when other Eagles pass-catchers have been injured. With Alshon Jeffery now done for the season, Ertz should continue to dominate Philadelphia’s target share. In 4 of the last 5 games, Ertz has seen double-digit targets. Furthermore, it is a particular weakness on the Washington defense as they have surrendered the 9th most fantasy points to TEs in 2019. Ertz should be in line for both opportunity and massive upside.
Darren Waller OAK vs JAX
Darren Waller began the season on fire with at least 6 receptions in 5 of the Raiders’ first 6 games of 2019. However, his production began to slip mid-season. At one point, there was a 5 game stretch where Waller did surpass 3 receptions only once. Now, Waller is coming off of back-to-back matches with at least 6 receptions each. It appears as though Oakland’s top target has found his groove again and can be trusted in DFS lineups.
Best Bet Bargains
RB – Patrick Laird MIA @ NYG $12
It is rare to find an RB in line to see double-digit carries with a $12 price tag. But that is what we have in the form of Patrick Laird. The new lead-back in Miami is coming off back-to-back games with double-digit carries and 5 targets in each match. Not only is Laird involved in the passing game, but he has been the main Red Zone RB in recent weeks. He has seen a total of 11 Red-Zone opportunities this season, which puts him 2nd on the Dolphins behind only Kalen Ballage, whom Laird replaced on top of the RB depth chart after Ballage went on IR.
WR – Breshad Perriman TB vs DET $12
With Mike Evans out of the season, look for Breshad Perriman to become the Buccaneers #2 receiver over the last few weeks. of 2019. It has already begun with 11 targets over the last 2 weeks. That includes a season-best 14.5 fantasy points last week after Evans exited the contest. With a road and dome game on tap, Tampa Bay should be in a position to pass a lot, and Perriman should be there as a primary target.
TE – Tyler Higbee LAR @ DAL $14
Since Gerald Everett‘s injury, Tyler Higbee has put up back-to-back 100-yard games. With Everett not practicing this week, and expected to miss another game, Higbee will once again have most of the Rams TE workload to himself. That could lead to a productive meeting against the Cowboys who have allowed the 6th most receptions per game to TEs this season. Look for Higbee to extend this very productive stretch.
Dominant Defences
Philadelphia Eagles @ WAS $15
I want to start this off by saying that I like Dwayne Haskins and think he should be given the chance to start at QB in 2020. In my opinion, the main obstacle for Washington has been their offensive line. Haskins has done his best adjusting to poor protection and moving in the pocket. While I believe that he has the skills and the receivers to exploit this weak Eagles secondary, I have concerns about how the offensive line will hold up. Philadelphia could easily rack up sacks and maybe even some INTs. Haskins has thrown 7 picks in the 7 games that he has started, so he appears to be in line to throw at least 1 in week 15.
Oakland Raiders vs JAX $11
The Jaguars as a whole are struggling. Only once over their last 5 games have they managed to score more than 13 points. In that 5 game stretch, Jacksonville has also surrender multiple sacks in every game. They have fallen out of playoff content, while the Raiders can still claim a wild card spot. Playing in a virtual must-win, I expect Oakland to be the better team, especially in their last home game of the year. Helping the cause for this defense is the fact that the Jaguars will be without their top receiving option, D.J. Chark. At only $11, the Raiders make a great play for a bargain defense in DFS tournaments.
Super Stacks
Texans – Titans
QB – Deshaun Watson HOU $35
WR – DeAndre Hopkins HOU $32
WR – A.J. Brown TEN vs HOU $15
The Texans Titans game has the highest combined over/under of the week at 51 points. This seems like as good a week as any to stack Deshaun Watson and his top target DeAndre Hopkins. For the WR, there was a 5 -game scoreless stretch earlier in the season. However, over the last 7 outings, Hopkins has 5 TD receptions. Furthermore, if Will Fuller misses this game, that should create more opportunities for Hopkins to produce.
I have already written about 1 Titans players in the Preferred Price Point of this article. Ryan Tannehill is a good alternative to Watson if you need to save $5. Also, A.J. Brown would be a nice stack. The rookie WR’s production has been up and down all season. However, Brown has produced over 20 fantasy points in 2 of the last 3 games and has emerged as the top receiver on the Titans. Furthermore, Tenessee has the 4th highest implied total on the Sunday slate at 27 points. The production should be there for Brown.
Seahawks – Panthers
QB – Russell Wilson SEA $ 30
RB – Chris Carson SEA $ 34
WR – D.J. Moore CAR $ 27
TE – Jacob Hollister SEA $ 16
Right after the Texans-Titans contest, the Seahawks-Panthers match has the 2nd highest combined over/under of the week with 49 points. It all begins with the QB and both starting signal-callers are close in price. I prefer to pay up the extra $2 and grab the QB who has been a fairly consistent producer this season. While Kyle Allen started off his tenure in Carolina with some great fantasy performances, he has tailed off in recent weeks. Russell Wilson meanwhile is playing arguably the best football of his career and should be trusted this week.
However, the Seahawks players that I most want to play from this matchup is Chris Carson. The Panthers have allowed the most fantasy points to RBs in 2019. With Rashaad Penny now out for the rest of the season, look for Carson to receive the majority of Seattle’s RB workload. Smash him in this great matchup even with a season-high $34 price tag.
Looking on the Panthers side of the football, we find D.J. Moore in Preferred Price Point for WRs. At $27, and with his consistent target share, Moore should be a fine play this week. While he struggled to find the end zone earlier in 2019, with only 1 receiving score in his first 10 games, Moore has found the end zone 3 times over the last 3 weeks. The only other pass-catcher in this game that is as appealing is Jacob Hollister. The TE is going for only $16 and makes for a great bargain stack with Wilson.
Other Stacks: TB-DET, MIA-NYG
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