Week 6 is now upon us. That means another chance to win big playing DFS. Here are my picks for the optimal Yahoo prices and strategy involving their DFS format. Articles sections include Home and Dome, Preferred Positional Price Points, Best Bet Bargains, Dominant Defenses and Super Stacks.
The main Yahoo slate does not include Thursday or Monday Night Football.
For more information on Yahoo NFL DFS scoring setting and lineup requirements, check out the Week 1 article.
Home and Dome
There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and being indoors takes that element away. Four teams play Home and Dome in week 7:
Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams
Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans
Preferred Position Price Points
Because the pricing is so compressed on Yahoo’s format, there are a lot more players at the same cost than there are on other platforms. For our purposes, that is great because it gives us certain price ranges to target when creating DFS lineups.
QB – $30
Josh Allen BUF vs MIA
No matter how you look at, the Dolphins defense is bad. They have allowed the most fantasy points to both quarterbacks and running backs in Yahoo’s scoring system. Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) is a metric used to evaluate efficiency on a play-by-play basis. Through 6 weeks of the NFL season, Miami ranks dead last in defensive passing efficiency and in the bottom 5 of running efficiency. For a mobile quarterback like Josh Allen, this is ideal. He is capable of having success on both the ground and through the air. Look for the Bills to put up points, as Vegas has given them the 2nd highest individual over/under of the week at 28.5 points. However Buffalo scores, look for Allen to be involved, whether it’s with his arm or his legs.
Kyler Murray ARI @ NYG
Yet another mobile QB is priced at $30. That is great because rushing yards help to give QBs a solid floor. Look no further than rookie Kyler Murray whose worst fantasy performance of 2019 consisted of scoring 16.36. That is the highest floor of any QB on this Sunday’s slate. That is especially impressive considering that Murray failed to throw a TD in 3 of 6 games this season. Furthermore, the matchup against the Giants is pretty good as they have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to QBs this season. Also, the Giants have the 5th least efficient pass defense according to DVOA. This could be a great opportunity for Murray who is coming off of a 3 TD passing performance.
RB – $24-$25
Josh Jacobs OAK @ GB $25
The Packers have allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. While they did find success containing the run last week, they still allowed a TD on the ground. Considering that the Raiders’ primary plan this season has been to run the football, it makes sense to trust Josh Jacobs in this plus matchup. Jacobs has been getting the workload with 65% of the Raiders 2019 rushing attempts. That split gets even more extreme inside the Red Zone, where Jacobs has received 71% of the RB rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line.
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Mark Ingram BAL @ SEA $24
Much like Josh Jacobs, Mark Ingram has also been the recipient of a multitude of Red Zone opportunities. For Ingram, it’s not just about getting the ball within 20-yards of the opponent’s end zone, but it’s the fact that the Ravens run so much when they are knocking on the goal-line. So far in 2019, only 1 player has received more carries inside the 5-yard line than Ingram’s 8. This has helped sustain a certain level of production as he has scored 7 TDs in 6 games this season. Of all the running backs playing in this week’s Sunday slate, Ingram has averaged the 6th most fantasy points per game in 2019. While the Seahawks have the reputation of being a good defensive unit, they are in fact, ranked as the 12th least efficient run defense according to DVOA.
WR – $15
With so many great high-priced options at every other position, wide receiver appears to be the position to pay down for. There is a pair of teammates at $15 with such a great matchup that I would not want to pay up further than that (outside of some Super Stacks later in the article).
Cole Beasley BUF vs MIA
Cole Beasley makes the most sense in cash or 50/50 lineups. As a slot receiver, he is more prone to have a low ceiling, but high floor outputs. In weeks 3 and 4, Beasley received a combined 23 targets. He scored 10.8 and 11 fantasy points respectively in those two weeks, demonstrating my point of low-ceiling but consistent production. His potential is likely at its highest point this week with a dream matchup against the Dolphins.
Duke Williams BUF vs MIA
While Beasley operating on the underneath routes, Duke Williams has begun to establish himself as a red zone threat for the Bills. In week 5, Williams found the end zone and gave Buffalo a 14-7 lead late in the game. It is telling that Josh Allen looked Williams’ way in such an important moment even though it was the wide receiver’s first career NFL game. Aside from the tight ends, Williams is the Bills’ biggest receiver and could have some big production against the Dolphins in week 7. On the heels of a fantastic 2018 in the CFL, Williams appears ready to take on NFL teams. With his boom-bust TD potential, Williams makes the most sense as a tournament or GPP play.
TE – $26-$27
Evan Engram NYG vs ARI $27
The gap may be closing, but the Cardinals defense has still allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. On average that position has scored 20.82 against Arizona. The next closest team has allowed 14.7 fantasy points per game to tight ends. That is basically equivalent to the Cardinals permitting an extra TD per week. This should bode well for Evan Engram who, in week 7, is expected to return from a 1-game absence. Even with that injury, Engram still leads the Giants in targets, receptions, receiving yards and is the only player on the team with multiple receiving TDs this season. Engram has a great opportunity against the Cardinals and is the most expensive tight end for a reason. Still, as with any player coming off of an injury, monitor this situation through the weekend.
George Kittle SF @ WAS $26
Another tight end whose game-time status may be even more in question than Evan Engram is George Kittle. Last week, he was practically a game-time decision, yet Kittle still caught all 8 of his targets for 103 yards. Much like Engram’s role with the Giants, Kittle is the 49ers primary passing weapon as he leads the team in targets, receptions ad receiving yards. Getting either player requires a significant investment in the tight end position, but I believe this is the week to do that with several great bargain options available at other positions.
Best Bet Bargains
RB – Joe Mixon CIN vs JAX $14
There is an argument to be made that Joe Mixon is 2019’s biggest fantasy football bust. This has caused his Yahoo DFS price to drop drastically. After opening the year with a $23 price tag, Mixon has dropped to a season-low $14 in week 7. While the Jaguars pass defense is quite good, they are certainly more vulnerable to opposing rushing attacks. According to DVOA, Jacksonville actually ranks as the least efficient run defense through 7 weeks of the NFL season. Furthermore, the Jaguars have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. If Mixon can’t get it done this week, then he may endure an even further reduction in price.
WR – Dante Pettis SF @ WAS $11
After struggling to get on the field, Dante Pettis has seen his playing time increase over the last 2 weeks. In those games, he played in 63% and 72% respectively of the 49rs offensive snaps respectively. Before that, he couldn’t even get on the field half of the time, but then suddenly, he led San Francisco wide receivers in snaps in each of those matches. However, an increase in playing time has not come with a rise in his Yahoo price. This may be one of the last times that Pettis will be at $11 and it comes against the team that has allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to wide receivers in 2019. Take advantage.
WR – Allen Lazard GB vs OAK $10
There are several Packers wide receivers that are listed as questionable heading into week 7. Allen Lazard only played in the 4th quarter during Green Bay’s Week 6 victory, but he still managed to lead the team in receiving yards. He showed a connection with his quarterback on back-shoulder throws, something that his teammates struggled to do. On the heels on his breakout game Lazard, will likely crack the Packer’s starting lineup. At $10, he should also be in countless Yahoo lineups.
Dominant Defenses
Buffalo Bills vs MIA $20
Of all the defenses playing in the Week 7 Sunday slate, the Bills unit has scored the 8th most fantasy points on the season. This week they play the Dolphins, the team that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The D/ST facing Miami has put up double-digit fantasy points in every single week during the 2019 season. So far, Buffalo has accumulated 12 sacks in 8 turnovers in 5 games played this year. That production should continue against the Dolphins.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ CIN $13
For those not willing (or wanting) to pay up for a $20 defense, the Jaguars provide a more cost-effective alternative. No, this defense is not playing nearly as well as they did in 2017 when they were arguably the league’s best unit. However, we did see glimpses of that team at times. That includes a 9-sack performance in week 3. While they may not take down the quarterback that much in week 7, Jacksonville nonetheless has a solid matchup. The Bengals offensive line is ranked 27th in Football Outsiders adjusted sack rate. Look for the Jaguars defensive front to provide pressure, even on the road.
Super Stack
Rams @ Falcons
QB – Jared Goff LAR / Matt Ryan ATL $33/$32
RB – Darrell Henderson LAR $13
WR – Mohamed Sanu ATL $13
The Rams and Falcons game has week 7’s highest combined over/under at 55 points. This is expected to be a shootout, which could make it a great matchup to stack. Either quarterback should be a decent option if you are willing to go above the $30 preferred position price points. Jared Goff has struggled at times this season, with only 1 20+ point fantasy performance in 2019. However, this might be his best matchup of the season as the Falcons have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. For Matt Ryan, the matchup is middle of the pack, but he has been more consistent than Goff. Unlike his counterpart, Ryan only has 1 game of less than 20 fantasy points in 2019.
There are a lot of questions surrounding the Rams backfield. If his teammates are inactive, then Darrell Henderson could end up as a great value play at only $13. Elsewhere on the Rams roster, cornerback Jalen Ramsey was just acquired this week. If he plays, he will likely shadow Julio Jones. At that point, I would look to target another Atlanta wide receiver like Mohamed Sanu. Going with a pair of $13 players along with a $33-$32 quarterback allows for roster flexibility.
Texans @ Colts
QB – Jacoby Brissett IND $28
WR – DeAndre Hopkins HOU $33
WR – T.Y. Hilton IND $29
Jacoby Brissett comes in below the preferred price points for quarterbacks. So if you want a slight discount, but still want access to a great matchup than Brissett is your guy. The Texans have allowed he 10th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Just before the Colts bye week, they defeated the Chiefs in a run-heavy game plan. Before that, Brissett had thrown multiple TD passes in every game to start 2019. It’s a good matchup as the Texans have allowed he 10th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Houston’s run defense DVOA is above average while Kansas City has the 2nd worst unit through 6 weeks. Therefore, Indianapolis won’t be able to run quite as much as they did last week.
This game sets up as another shootout with a combined over-under of 47.5 points. The main beneficiaries should be each team’s top receiver. For DeAndre Hopkins, it has been a difficult stretch of games. Since his week 1 fantasy performance of 27.1 points, Hopkins has not even reached 12.5 fantasy points in any contest. The Colts allowed 22+ fantasy points to Keenan Allen and Julio Jones, wide receivers of similar stature and target share that Hopkins has historically seen. This could be the game needed to get back on track.
On the other side of the football, T.Y. Hilton has traditionally had monster games against the Texans. That includes a 5 reception, 175-yard, 2 TD performance from 2017 when Brissett was the Colts quarterback. After a bye week to rest the injuries that held him out of week 4, Hilton seems primed for a great game. It is especially helpful that this is a Home and Dome game.
Other Stacks: 49ers, Bills
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