Week 9 is here and that means another chance to win big playing daily fantasy sports. Here are my picks for the optimal Yahoo prices and strategy involving their DFS format. Article sections include Preferred Positional Price Points, Best Bet Bargains, Dominant Defenses and Super Stacks.
The main Yahoo slate does not include Thursday or Monday Night Football as well as the London game.
For more information on Yahoo NFL DFS scoring setting and lineup requirements, check out the Week 1 article.
Home and Done
There are no teams playing Home and Dome this week. For details of what Home and Dome, check out last week‘s article.
Preferred Position Price Points
QB – $27
Josh Allen BUF vs WAS
Josh Allen offers a certain floor as a running QB. Because of his ability on the ground, Allen has scored at least 2 total TDs in all but 2 games this season. That should continue against Washington as they have allowed the 5th most rushing yards per game to QBs this season. This is truly amazing considering that opposing QBs have the 9th fewest rushing attempts against Washington. If Allen gets any amount of decent production through the air, then he should certainly pay off this $27 price tag.
Derek Carr OAK vs DET
There are several factors that point to Derek Carr being a great fantasy option this week. For instance, the Lions have allowed the 7th most fantasy points per game to QBs in 2019. Also, this game has the 2nd highest combined over/under of the week at 49.5 points. Therefore, it should be a shootout type of contest where Carr will need to use his arm in order to win.
RB – $39-$40
Christian McCaffrey CAR vs TEN $40
This is a week to up to the top at RB. It all begins with Christian McCaffrey, the most expensive player on the entire slate. On the surface, this matchup may seem difficult as the Titans are currently ranked 3rd in run defense DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). However, one area where Tennessee is vulnerable is to pass-catching RBs. They have allowed the 5th most receptions to the position. So even if McCaffrey struggles on the ground, his production in through the air should be enough to pay off this hefty price tag.
Dalvin Cook MIN vs KC
Another player with an elevated cost is Dalvin Cook. He is behind only McCaffrey in week 9 Yahoo pricing, yet he almost feels like one of the best dollar for dollar values. The Chiefs have the 3rd lest efficient run defense according to DVOA and they have allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game to RBs this season. On his own, Cook has been fantastic this season, averaging the 2nd most fantasy points per game among RBs in the slate. Add in a great matchup, and you have a player worth paying up for.
WR – $18
Marvin Jones DET @ OAK
Marvin Jones may be one of the best examples of a boom-bust player. His fantasy production in 2019 has ranged from 2.7 points to a whopping 38.3. As a speedy deep threat, Jones excels in situations where he can get behind a defense a rack of a big play. This may one of the best weeks for that to happen as the Raiders have allowed the 5th most receiving yards per game to opposing WRs this season. As mentioned earlier, Vegas predicts that this matchup will have the 2nd highest point total. That bodes well for Jones and his big-play ability.
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D.K. Metcalf SEA vs TB
The only game with a higher implied total that Lions @ Raiders is the Buccaneers and Seahawks game. While Seattle’s primary game plan appears to be run the football, that may be rather difficult in this contest. Tampa Bay is the best run defense in the NFL according to DVOA. They have managed to nullify some of the most efficient running teams in the league, and this could very well happen again in week 9. That type of situation bodes well for D.K. Metcalf. He is currently 2nd on the Seahawks in targets and tied for 1st in receiving TDs. Look for the big-bodied WR to be a big part of Seattle’s game plan against the 7th worst DVOA passing defense.
TE – $21
Hunter Henry LAC vs GB
While the Packers defense has been one of the best overall units in 2019, they are vulnerable to giving up massive performances to TEs. In fact, they have allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to the position this season. Part of that was the absence of safety Darnel Savage who is a big part of covering TEs in Green Bay’s scheme. Now that Savage is back, the coverage issues should be minimized. However, since returning from injury, Hunter Henry is 2nd on the Chargers in targets. He is a big part of their game plan, and that should continue in week 9.
Darren Waller OAK vs DET
Perhaps even more important than Hunter Henry’s role with the Chargers is what Darren Waller means for the Raiders. He leads the team in targets and has almost double than his closest teammate (58 to 30). The Lions have been vulnerable to TEs this season, giving up the 10th most fantasy points per game to the position. Once again, again Waller should produce at his normal rate. Among TEs playing on this Sunday’s slate, Waller is 2nd in points per game, behind only Henry.
Best Bet Bargains
RB – Jordan Howard PHI vs CHI $19
The Bears defense has been excellent at shutting down certain positions this season. However, RB is not one of them as they have allowed the 12th most fantasy points per game to the position. This week especially, Jordan Howard could be in line for an expanded workload as his main backfield competition is dealing with a shoulder injury. Even if he does play, Howard should continue to the primary goal-line back. If the Eagles can get into scoring position than Howard would likely reap the rewards in a revenge game.
RB – Jaylen Samuels PIT vs IND $12
On paper, Jaylen Samuels has a great matchup as the Colts’ DVOA ranking for run defense is ranked 29th out of 32 teams. However, a lot of that was accumulated during the games that Darius Leonard missed. Now that he has returned, it may be more difficult for teams to run against them. Samuels does have the advantage of being involved in the passing game. Most notably, he had 8 receptions in a game where James Conner was also active. Conner will miss week 9, which leaves Samuels in line for a massive workload. Take advantage of the fact that Samuels’ price was set before Conner’s absence was confirmed.
WR – Phillip Dorsett NE @ BAL $13
Perhaps quietly, Phillip Dorsett is currently tied for the Patriots team lead in receiving TDs at 4. No surprise, Julian Edelman, who was featured in this article last week, is the player alongside him. However, Edelman is $11 more expensive than Dorsett. Especially in a week where I am advising to pay up for RBs, that amount of saving can be key. New England is only favored by 3 this week, which could mean that they will need to rely on the pass more so than in other games. That could lead to a target increase for Dorsett.
Dominant Defenses
Buffalo Bills vs WAS $19
The Bills had arguably their worst defensive performance last week. They allowed the Eagles to score 31 points, the only time that any team has scored more than 21 against Buffalo in 2019. However, the Bills still managed to produce 3 sacks against Philadelphia. That pass-rush should produce against Washinton’s offensive line that is ranked 24th in Football Outsiders adjusted sack rate. The pay off for playing the Bills will only be magnified as they will be touting on to the field with a rookie QB this week.
Cleveland Browns @ DEN $12
There are a few reasons to target the road team in this matchup. For starters, the Broncos have the 28th ranked offensive line in adjusted sack rate. Furthermore, Denver is making a switch at QB. Considering that their signal-caller will be making his first career NFL start, it could be a painful day for the Broncos passing attack. All of this makes the Browns a great defense in the lower end of the position price range.
Super Stack
Lions
QB – Matthew Stafford $35
WR – Kenny Golladay $25
While there have been several players from this Lions @ Raiders game already mentioned, I thought it would be best to outline the QB-WR duo that could very well be the highest scoring fantasy players in this matchup. Matthew Stafford is on a roll right now, throwing at least 3 TD passes in 3 of his last 4 games. In that same stretch, Kenny Golladay has 2 100-yard games and 4 TD receptions. Facing Oakland and their 4th-worst DVOA pass defense, Stafford should have no problem airing it out, especially considering the team’s recent struggles in the run game. And With no true lock-down CB to cover Golladay, look for him to have another monster game.
There other intriguing stack options in this game. I have detailed them throughout this article (Carr, Jones Jr, Waller).
Packers
RB – Aaron Jones $29
DEF – Green Bay Packers $15
The Chargers have given up the 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. Aaron Jones has been incredibly productive this season, leading all RBs in total TD and trailing only Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook in fantasy points scored. Instead of paying up for either of those top tier RBs, Jones can still produce at that level but with a discount in price. Furthermore, Jones is currently first on the team in targets, receptions and receiving TD, and is 3rd in receiving yards. Regardless of how the game script goes, Jones will be involved. The Packers have the 3rd highest implied total among all teams on the Sunday slate. At 25.25 projected points, Green Bay has the best chance of any road team to put up the points.
The Packers front 7 has struggled a providing pressure against teams with an elite-level center. After Mike Pouncey‘s season-ending injury, the Chargers do not have that. Green Bay should put enough pressure to get some sacks or even some turnovers. Also, having a defense stacked with an RB is logical as a team is more likely to run the ball when they have a lead. So if Jones gets a large workload, it will likely be because the Packers have kept the Chargers point total low.
Others Stacks: Bills, Seahawks
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