Week 6 is now upon us. That means another chance to win big playing DFS. Here are my picks for the optimal Yahoo prices and strategy involving their DFS format. Articles sections include Home and Dome, Preferred Pricing, Best Bet Bargains, Dominant Defenses and Super Stacks.
The main Yahoo slate does not include the London game or Monday Night Football.
For more information on Yahoo NFL DFS scoring setting and lineup requirements, check out the Week 1 article.
Home and Dome
There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and being indoors takes that element away. There are two teams that play Home and Dome in week 6:
Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons
Minnesota Vikings vs Philadelphia Eagles
Preferred Position Price Points
Because the pricing is so compressed on Yahoo’s format, there are a lot more players at the same cost than there are on other platforms. For our purposes, that is great because it gives us certain price points to target when creating DFS lineups.
QB – $22
Teddy Bridgewater NO @ JAX
This week, my ideal strategy is to pay up in order to get elite RBs and WRs. That requires saving some cash at other positions, and $22 for a QB is a great way to accomplish that. Normally, the Jaguars are a defense to avoid. However, they have allowed 2 out of 5 QBs they have faced in 2019 to score 3 TD and over 20 fantasy points. The Saints have the 13th ranked offensive line in terms of adjusted sack rate. Teddy Bridgewater should have the protection necessary to find all of his weapons. Again, at $22, Bridgewater doesn’t need insane production to return value on the investment.
Josh Rosen MIA vs WAS
Yes, Josh Rosen has had a brutal season, and frankly, career. However, the Dolphins do play Washington this week. In a battle of 0-5 teams, this may be the most evenly matched contest that either of these teams has all year. Defense-adjusted Value Over Average is an efficiency metric developed by Football Outsiders as a way to quantify how well NFL teams are playing. Through 5 weeks, Washington has the 5th lest efficient pass defense. This could be the game needed to kick-stat a productive fantasy football run for Rosen.
RB – $27
Chris Carson SEA @ CLE
There was some concern about Chris Carson and his early-season tendency to fumble. After losing a fumble in each of the Seahawks’ first 3 games, Carson has not coughed the football in the previous 2 contests. According to DVOA, the Browns have been the 10th least efficient run defense throughout 2019. Therefore, this sets up as a great matchup for Carson who played in 86% of the Seahawks offensive snaps last week, even with Rashaad Penny returning. Carson should, once again, get the majority of Seattle’s RB workload.
Mark Ingram BAL vs CIN
The Bengals have the 7th least efficient run defense in 2019, according to DVOA. That makes for a great matchup with regard to Mark Ingram, even if he does not have a monopoly on rushing opportunities. Still, Ingram has received 15 Red Zone carries this season and capitalized by scoring 6 TDs. The number could go up after playing Cincinnati. The Ravens have the 2nd highest individual implied total for week 6, at 28.75 points. If Vegas is correct in their projections, then that type of game script rally helps Ingram’s cause to be one of the best RBs this week.
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WR – $33
DeAndre Hopkins HOU @ KC
The Texans-Chiefs game has a combined over/under of 55.5 points, the 2nd highest total so far this season. That falls behind only last weeks’ Colts-Chiefs contest. While that matchup ended up falling well short of that line, the Kansas City offense being shut out seems more like an outlier than a trend. Considering the passing performance that Houston is coming off of, the plan may be to win this game through the air. That sets up a shootout situation which bodes well for, among others, DeAndre Hopkins. The Texans star WR has not scored a TD since week 1. Since then, Houston has played teams with stronger defenses that held them in check, at least until last week’s game against the Falcons.
Julio Jones ATL @ ARI
Speaking of the Falcons, Julio Jones is also $33 on Yahoo this week. He has been dealing with a back issue, so hopefully, that is not too serious. If Jones does suit up on Sunday, he gets a great matchup going against the Cardinals. According to DVOA, Arizona has the 6th least efficient passing defense in 2019. Now, the Falcons are actually worse, so this could be a game where Atlanta needs to rely on Jones and his big-play potential to win this game. Vegas has the combined over/under at 51 for this matchup, the 2nd highest on the slate. The fact that this will be an indoor game also boosts the passing potential.
TE – $15
Gerald Everett LAR vs SF
Only one TE is listed at $15 and it’s Gerald Everett. This recommendation is based around the health of the other members of the Rams receiving corps. Over the last couple of weeks, the TE has been a bigger part of the Rams offense. Everett saw 8 and 11 targets during the previous two games respectively. If Brandin Cooks sits out week 6, then Everett should see a bigger target share, but with less attention than the WRs on the team.
Bonus: Ricky Seals-Jones CLE vs SEA
Ricky Seals-Jones had a brutal week 5, registering 1 target and 0 receptions. That will probably lower his ownership to the point where he could be a great tournament or GPP play. Even though the Seahawks have been about an average passing defense, according to DVOA, they have allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing TEs. If Seals-Jones can get enough of a target share, then he could potentially score 15+ points as he did in week 4.
Best Bet Bargains
RB – Duke Johnson HOU @ KC $13
Once again, back to the Texans-Chiefs game. Last week, I put a Houston player in this section and it really paid off. It was RBs that had the massive production against Kansas City last week. If the Chiefs offense can put up more than 13 points, that will force Houston to pass the football. That could mean more passing game usage for Duke Johnson out of the backfield. In week 1, against the Saints, Johnson was targeted 5 times, a season-high so far. This game script appears to set up for him to set a new season-best in opportunity and fantasy production.
RB – Miles Sanders PHI @ MIN $11
The Vikings run defense DVOA is currently ranked 2nd in the entire NFL. That means that it could be a tough day for Eagles RB Jordan Howard. Last week, Miles Sanders was 3rd on the team in targets, showcasing his involvement in the passing game. That might be the area where the Eagles could exploit, at least more easily than running it at Minnesota. The Vikings have actually allowed more receiving TDs to RBs than they have rushing TDs. Considering the tough matchup, Sanders may have low ownership neede to make a splashy tournament play.
WR – Robby Anderson NYJ vs DAL $10
Another player at that minimum $10 price is Robby Anderson. The Jets have struggled, but they have also been without their starting QB since week 2. As Sam Darnold prepares to return, Anderson is still being priced as though Darnold is not playing. I’d say take advantage and add Anderson to your lineups.
Dominant Defenses
Tennessee Titans @ DEN $18
The Broncos have committed a turnover for 4 straight weeks. The Titans have forced a turnover in 3 of 5 games and have produced at least 3 sacks in 4 of 5 games this season. Things are setting up to be a good game for the Tennessee defense. The likely game plan for their offense is to run the football. If successful, that will severely limit the amount of time that Denver possesses the football and thus caps off their offensive potential. The Titans defense is the 2nd most expensive on the slate, but they do have the potential to be the best fantasy unit in week 6.
Los Angeles Chargers vs PIT $12
I picked the Chargers in this section last week, and they did score 14 fantasy points. That was against the Broncos who have an experienced QB. In week 6, they get the Steelers who are down to their 3rd-string QB who is an undrafted free agent and will be making his first career start. Once again, the Chargers provide a great opportunity at a low Yahoo price.
Super Stack
Falcons @ Cardinals
QB – Kyler Murray ARI $26
RB – Ito Smith ATL $10
WR – Larry Fitzgerald ARI $19
As I mentioned earlier in this article, the Falcons-Cardinals game has the 2nd highest combined over/under on the week. Neither defense has performed that well this season and that plays into the shootout narrative.
The idea behind this particular stack is that the Falcons get enough of a lead to be able to run the football. According to DVOA, Arizona currently has the 11th least efficient run defense. Last week, Ito Smith played in 47% of the Falcons offensive snaps, indicating that it is a full-blown timeshare for the Falcons backfield. Instead of paying up for Devonta Freeman, Smith is available at the minimum $10. Smith has also received 9 red zone opportunities this season, the same number as Freeman. Furthermore, Smith has 4 of Atlanta’s 6 rushing attempts from inside the 5-yard line which leads to believe that he is the team’s goal-line back.
If this game script goes as anticipated, then the Cardinals will need to throw the football in order to keep up. That means more Kyler Murray pass attempts, and more targets going toward Larry Fitzgerald. Considering what the Falcons just allowed last week, attacking through the air may be the best way to approach Arizona. Also, Murray is always able to add rushing production to his fantasy totals.
He is expensive, but Julio Jones is also in consideration for this stack.
Other stacks: Texans @ Chiefs, Bengals @ Ravens
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