10 Things to Know About Week 3 (#FantasyFootball)
1. Brees and Ben the Broken.
Teddy Bridgewater. Mason Rudolph. These are not names that we expected to see listed atop their depth-charts going into Week 3 of the season. But the injury bug hit hard Week 2, taking out Drew Brees for at least 6 weeks and Ben Roethlisberger for the season. What does it mean for their respective offenses? At this point in time, you have to downgrade the main weapons (Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Juju Smith-Schuster, and James Connor) until we see how the new QBs affect their production.
However, two players value increases, and that’s James Washington and Latavius Murray. Washington was college teammates of Rudolph’s, and together they set multiple school records at Oklahoma State. Their connection was evident this pre-season, where Washington had five catches for 93 yards and 2 TDs on just 8 targets from Rudolph. Expect that chemistry to continue. Regarding Murray, I would expect the Saints to focus more on running the ball with Teddy Two Gloves (or Taysom Hill?) under center. New Orleans has had multiple opportunities to increase Kamara’s workload over the past few years and declined to do so, which leaves Murray to get the extra touches. I would pick up both players everywhere available with a wait and see approach.
2. Use the panic to your advantage.
Understandably owners of every skill level are concerned with the QB injuries and what it will do to the production of the skill players affected. Use it to your advantage and see what kind of discount you can get, especially on Kamara and Thomas. Drew Brees is expected back around Week 10, which will be just in time for the fantasy playoffs. Although Smith-Schuster and Conner will in all likelihood lose production, you may be able to get a steep discount from a panicking owner. Shoot out offers and see if you can get any of them on the cheap, there is value to be had.
3. End of the Eli Manning era.
For once the Giants are doing something that actually makes sense, sending Eli Manning to the bench in favor of the sixth overall pick in this summers draft, Daniel Jones. It should be a boost in value for Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley, as Manning has been a shell of himself for years and Jones showing he has some mobility and arm strength in the preseason. But Danny Dimes will have a rough go of it in first start, even with Sterling Shepard expected back from a concussion. Golden Tate is still suspended and Jones is facing a Tampa Bay defense that held both Jimmy Garoppolo and Cam Newton under 13 fantasy points in most scoring formats. But once Tate gets back and the offense gets some time together, Jones could have some value as a back end QB2 in Superflex/2QB leagues. With the state of the QB position in fantasy at the moment, Jones is worth a bench stash. Don’t start him outside of the deepest of Superflex/2QB leagues yet, but Jones could be a solid start with the right match-up and his wide receiver corps back to full strength.
4. The Chris Godwin breakout is happening.
Although there have been some hiccups in the renaissance of the Tampa Bay offense under Bruce Arians, Chris Godwin has lived up to his pre-season hype. Through two games he has almost doubled Mike Evans in receptions (Godwin – 11, Evans – 5), yards (Godwin – 174, Evans – 89) and has 2 TDs to Evans’ goose-egg. The offense is certainly still a work-in-progress, and there is a legitimate chance that Jameis Winston may just not be the player most expected when he was drafted number one overall in 2015. But Godwin has closed the gap with Evans as the Bucs top wide-receiver, right now is the 1a to Evans 1b. Arians said before the season Godwin would “be close to a 100-catch guy”, and right now he’s on pace for just that. If there is anyone in your league who doesn’t buy-in, go get Godwin before Week 3. Tampa Bay faces a Giants defense that currently ranks third-worst in yards-per-game given up through the air (321). If it’s not too late already, it will be after this week.
5. Jason Witten: Red Zone Machine
If you don’t have one of the Big 3 of Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Zach Ertz, or early season breakouts Mark Andrews and Darren Waller, chances are you aren’t very happy with the production you’re getting from the TE position. Although he struggled in the booth on Monday Night Football, Jason Witten has been a serviceable TE start this season. He’s tied for fifth in the league with four red-zone targets, catching all four for a measly 10 yards, but more importantly two TDs. He’s scored double-digit PPR points in both games this season and faces the tanking-for-Tua Dolphins. Witten is a solid play in Week 3 and likely the rest of the season.
6. Pick up Golden Tate and Chris Herndon now.
If you don’t want to burn through your FAAB budget or high waiver priority early in the season, you should be looking ahead and not be reactionary when it comes to picking up players. That way, when someone has a breakout game, you don’t have to break the bank, they are already on your roster. In this case, it’s time to look at your waiver-wire and see if Golden Tate or Chris Herndon are available. Both have matching 4 game suspensions that are about to be completed, and both are expected to be a big part of their offense. Golden Tate now has a quarterback to come back to that can throw the ball more than 5 yards, and Sam Darnold is expected back from his bout with mono by the time Herndon will be back in Week 6 (the Jets have a Week 4 bye).
7. George Kittle will be just fine.
The Godfather of fantasy football Matthew Berry tweeted out a very interesting comparison for the start of George Kittle’s 2018 and 2019 seasons:
2018 through Week 2: 18.2 points, 26.5 percent target share
2019 through Week 2: 21.8 points, 26.4 percent target share
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Even with the slow start this season, he’s off to a better start than 2018, and currently ranks as TE 13 even though he has as many TD’s on the season as I do. Through two games last year he had 7 receptions and 112 yards, and this season he has 11 receptions for 108 yards. What doesn’t show up on the stat sheet are the two TD’s called back due to penalty Week 1, and if just one of those hadn’t been negated nobody would be worried at all. He’s still among the TE elite and faces a Steelers defense who just gave up 22 PPR points to Will Dissly. Kittle gets off the schneid this week and has a big game.
8. Is Devonta Freeman done?
3 weeks into the season isn’t generally enough of a sample size to give a fair assessment on a player, but with the injury history Devonta Freeman has had and the extreme lack of production (41 rushing yards, 54 reception yards) through two games, it’s easy to wonder if Freeman will get usurped by Ito Smith in the coming weeks. Smith has outproduced Freeman on the ground in half the rushing attempts (Freeman 19 attempts for 41 yards, Smith 10 attempts for 63 yards) and their yards per catch are close (Freeman 9, Smith 7.3). The same Vikings defense that held Freeman to 19 yards Week 1 was just shredded Week 2 by Aaron Jones for 155 yards. Freeman faces a Colts defense that gave up an average of 27.5 PPR points to Austin Ekeler and Derrick Henry in 2 games, so this is the week to prove the 2.2 average yards per carry is a fluke. Smith is a worthy handcuff for any Freeman owner, and someone I’m stashing in deeper leagues as well.
9. Monday Night Montgomery
To say the start of David Montgomery‘s career has been a disappointment would be an understatement, as the much-hyped rookie only has 80 rushing yards and one TD through 2 games. That will change on Monday Night when the Bears face the Washington Redskins, who have given up the second-most yards on the ground per game this season (168). Bears Coach Matt Nagy admitted after a Week 1 loss to the Packers that the Bears needed to run the ball more, and Montgomery was given 18 carries in Week 2 versus the six he had in Week 1. Nagy realized he was mistaken Week 1 in giving too many touches to Mike Davis and corrected it Week 2. Nagy couldn’t stop talking about how much he loved Montgomery this off-season, and from here on out he should be the workhorse. Expect a Week 3 breakout performance for Montgomery on Monday Night Football.
10. Don’t give up on Sammy Watkins.
Although Sammy Watkins didn’t have another huge game like Week 1, there is still plenty of encouraging things owners should look to before cutting bait with the ever-frustrating Watkins. Even though it was the Demarcus Robinson show versus the Raiders (six receptions for 172 yards and 2 TD’s), Watkins still led the team and more than doubled Robinson’s targets with 13. The Kansas City offense is one that could be frustrating all season, with a different pass-catcher blowing up each week. But when Patrick Mahomes is under center, you want whoever is leading the team in targets. It may have been a bit premature to anoint Watkins as an every-week WR1, but as long as he stays healthy, he will put up the points. Week 3 expects to be a shootout against the Ravens, so start all your Chiefs and expect a bounce-back performance from Watkins.
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