10 Things to Know About Week 5 (#FantasyFootball)
1. Don’t Worry about DeAndre Hopkins.
DeAndre Hopkins was seen as the top fantasy wide-receiver by many this draft season and has been a big disappointment so far (outside of a huge Week 1). He hasn’t caught a TD since that Monday Night Game against the Saints and has maxed out at 67 receiving yards since then as well. This week is the get-right game, as the Texans face one of the leagues worst (and most injury-plagued) secondaries in the Atlanta Falcons, but a team that thay also can score. Vegas has the over/under set at 50, being the second-highest projected total for the week. Hopkins will get back on track this week in what expects to be a shootout. If you’re able to buy Hopkins at any sort of discount, stop reading this and do it right now.
2. Temper expectations for AJ Brown.
At face value AJ Brown had an amazing Week 4, posting 24 PPR points and caught the first and second touchdowns of his young career. However, if you dig a little deeper you’ll see that even though Brown is an exciting young talent, be wary of anointing him as an every-week fantasy starter from here on out. Those 24 points came on only three targets, third on the team behind Corey Davis (six) and Dion Lewis (five). He made the most of those targets, catching all three, and through four weeks Brown is tied for the league-lead in yards per reception (22.3). Brown is the definition of a boom/bust player, and a solid flex play when the match-ups are right.
3. See if the Jets receivers are available.
Things couldn’t have started any more Jet-like for Gang Green this season if they tried. First, they blow a big lead to the Bills in Week 1. Then they lose 2018 third overall pick Sam Darnold to mono. His back-up Trevor Siemian gets hurt in the second quarter of his first start and requires season-ending surgery. Luke Falk (who was promoted from the practice squad in Week 2) is the starter until Darnold can come back, which could be as early as Week 6. The Jets pain can be your gain if you use it to your advantage. Now is the time to acquire Robby Anderson, Jamison Crowder, and Chris Herndon before its too late. The Jets have a mouthwatering fantasy schedule after a Week 7 match-up with New England, with games against the Giants, Redskins, Oakland, and fantasy playoff matchups against the Dolphins and Ravens. I’d wait until Darnold is back before plugging any of them into your lineup (Herndon is still suspended 1 more game). In a pinch you can start Anderson this week, the Eagles have a banged-up secondary and were already one of the leagues worst.
4. Start Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen.
To say this season has been a frustrating one for anyone who has shares of the Vikings passing would be an understatement. Things should change this week as Minnesota takes on one of the worst defenses against the pass in the New York Football Giants. There has been a lot of grumbling coming from the Vikings locker room after a loss to the Bears that saw Kirk Cousins only throw for 233 yards and zero touchdowns. Thielen saw only six targets, catching two of them for six yards, and Diggs had a respectable seven catches for 108 yards. I expect some squeaky-wheel treatment for both Thielen and Diggs this week. Both should put up solid WR2 numbers, although a WR1 game is certainly in the realm of possibility. The only thing holding them back maybe game-flow, as New York will likely have difficulty keeping this game close.
5. The Bengals won’t be The Bungles.
Andy Dalton started the season off hot with two games over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns but came crashing back down to earth the past two weeks, coming to a head with a disastrous start on Monday Night Football. So why will Andy Dalton will bounce back this week, even after losing John Ross and missing AJ Green all season? Welcome to Cincinnati Kyler Murray. The Cardinals are still figuring out if the “Air-Raid” offense is going to translate to the NFL, and with the growing pains also comes lots of opportunity for the opposing offense (fourth-most plays allowed per game, 67.5). With a defense that allows the fourth-most points per game (28.8) and allowed the second-most passing TDs (10) through the air, Dalton is a solid back end starter. I’d prefer to start him as a QB2/Superflex option, but with the state of QB’s in the NFL these days, you may not have another option. You could do much worse than Dalton this week.
6. Sell Wayne Gallman (if it’s not too late).
Those who spent up or burned a high waiver priority to get Wayne Gallman off waivers after Saquon Barkley‘s injury were rewarded handsomely in Week 4, with a 2 TD, 6 reception, 118 total yard monster performance. With initial reports saying Barkley is looking towards the longer side of the 6-8 weeks needed to recover from a high ankle sprain, Gallman was looking like waiver wire gold. Barkley isn’t from this planet, however, and is already back to running and cutting at practice. It seems he has the same magic healing powers as Adrian Peterson, and could potentially be back Week 6 against the Patriots. Gallman still has some value this week because he’s pretty much all the Giants have in the backfield and proved he has some pass-catching ability. But he won’t do much on the ground, as the Vikings are top-10 in rushing yards allowed per game and have only given up 1 rushing TD. Unless you are in absolute desperation mode and have no other viable options to start, I suggest trading Gallman for anything you can get for him that will have value past this week. Gallman very well may not.
7. Josh Gordon is about to blow up.
Josh Gordon has been a bit of a disappointment, he has yet to eclipse the 100-yard mark, only catching more than 3 passes in one game and only catching a single TD so far this season. That’s going to change this week, as the Patriots play the Redskins, who have given up the second-most passing TD’s (10) and the most allowed to wide receivers this season (8). Julian Edelman is still banged up and Antonio Brown is no longer in town, so Josh Gordon serves as the big play wide-out in this offense. After getting stymied on the road against a very stout Buffalo defense, the Patriots are the type of team that doesn’t let up on the gas when they want to send a message to the rest of the league. I’m not usually one that takes a narrative into account when it comes to fantasy projections, but I fully expect fireworks from Tom Brady and the entire Patriots offense. Gordon is the healthiest pass catcher and should benifit the most this week.
8. DJ Chark is in for a tough week.
When Nick Foles went down Week 1, nobody could predict the legend of Gardner Minshew II to become what it has. He’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in 3 out of 4 games and has come to like DJ Chark, who is tied on the team with Dede Westbrook for the most targets with 26. Unfortunately Minshew is banged up this week, but more importantly, the Jaguars are going against one of the best secondaries in the NFL. The Panthers are giving up the least passing yards per game in the NFL at 156.8, and have held Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, and DeAndre Hopkins to an average of 9.25 points. Chark has been a waiver wire wonder and the top receiver on the Jags, but I’m avoiding him at all costs this week.
9. Start Jaylen Samuels, with or without James Conner.
After not practicing on Wednesday and Thursday James Conner returned to practice Friday and is expected to start, but I’m still firing up Jaylen Samuels as a flex play this week. The Steelers are still trying to figure out what this offense is going to look like without Ben Roethlisberger, and they found success on Monday Night Football by getting Samuels involved. He went 3-for-3 passing for 21 yards, caught eight passes for 57 yards, and rushed for 26 yards and a TD. The match-up against the Ravens isn’t the greatest on the ground, but they have given up the second-most rushing TD’s (6) and have been torched by Nick Chubb, LeSean McCoy, and Darrel Williams in the past two weeks. The Ravens boast the top-ranked offense, so the Steeler’s will likely be playing catch-up most of this game. That bodes well for Samuels, as he will be involved regardless if Conner plays or not. If Conner is out, Samuels bumps to rock-solid RB2 status with RB1 upside.
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10. Panthers passing game will bounce back.
It’s been quite the roller-coaster for the Panthers passing offense. Even dealing with an injured Cam Newton and Kyle Allen being extremely inconsistent, DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel have been solid yet unspectacular, with Moore averaging 12.25 points and Samuel averaging 10.5 points through 4 games. Greg Olsen has had two great games (17 points Week 2, 25 points Week 3) and two awful games (7 points Week 1, 2 points Week 4). The Jaguars aren’t the defense they once were, and Jalen Ramsey is out with a back injury. The Jaguars have given up 300-yard passing games three times this season, and although Christian McCaffrey is arguably the best running back in the game right now, the Jags are giving up less than 100 yards per game on the ground and only given up three rushing TD so far this season. Start Allen as a QB2/Superflex option, Moore as a back end WR 2/rock solid WR3, and Samuel as a flex play with upside. I’m avoiding Olsen if possible until there is some consistency is Allen’s targets or until Cam gets back.
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