10 Things to Know About Week 6 (#FantasyFootball)
1. The time is now to make moves.
We’re at a point in the season where owners should be evaluating the landscape of their leagues, giving their team an honest assessment, and making moves accordingly. Started your season 5-0 or 4-1? Take a look at the teams at the bottom of the standings and look at their needs. Try to take advantage of their start and take on some of their disappointing players (Odell Beckham, Le’Veon Bell, Mike Evans) who could pay huge dividends if/when they bounce back. On the flip side, if you caught some bad beats and are at the bottom looking up, it may be time to cut bait on some of your long-term assets to get some help to win now. I’m by no means saying give your players away, but if you’re holding onto the likes of AJ Green, Devin Singletary, Drew Brees, and need wins, you may be knocked out of the playoffs by the time they are ready to contribute to your team. Try to get some value back from teams who started hot and can absorb the risk.
2. Buy Low on Robert Woods.
There is no disputing Cooper Kupp is Jared Goff‘s go-to receiver and the WR1 for the Rams. He currently ranks third in wide-receiver scoring (PPR) and leads the entire league in targets (63). The Rams defense isn’t the dominant force it has been in years past, which is leading to Goff throwing the ball a ton (tied with Matt Ryan for the league lead at 222 pass attempts). Woods is second on the team in targets with 49, so the opportunity for him to contribute is still there. The Rams are top 5 in yards per game (413.6), total points (146), and second only to the Chiefs in passing yards per game (317.4). Todd Gurley is already banged up again, and the days of him being a bell-cow back able to grind away games are long gone. Trade for Woods from a frustrated owner and enjoy a schedule that still includes Atlanta, Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Arizona. He’s the definition of a buy low.
3. Death, Taxes, and Mohamed Sanu.
The hype for Calvin Ridley this off-season was palpable, and rightfully so. Ridley had a record-breaking rookie season and was considered by many to slot in as the WR2 on the Falcons behind Julio Jones. Mohamed Sanu has something to say about that, however, as Sanu leads the team in total snaps, and also outpaces Ridley in receptions (29 to 21), targets (36 to 32), and has scored double-digit PPR points in four out of five games. Ridley has the higher ceiling but Sanu is more consistent and cheaper to acquire, he’s even available on many waiver wires. With bye weeks kicking into full gear and being on an offense that is tied with the Rams for the most passing attempts paired with one of the worst defenses in the NFL, there is plenty to go around in Atlanta. Julio and Ridley have a higher ceiling, but Sanu still has plenty of value. Week 6 in Arizona is a fantastic match-up for all of Atlanta’s pass catchers, and Sanu is on the field more than any other.
4. Greg Olsen will bounce back across the pond.
Greg Olsen has a combined 2 catches for 5 yards in the past two games, yet is still an excellent play this week. Kyle Allen has had his ups and downs since taking over for the injured Cam Newton, but the Panthers are traveling to England to face one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Buccaneers defense is bottom 5 in total points given up (148), bottom 10 in yards per game (393.4), and give up the second-most fantasy points to tight ends, second only to the Arizona Cardinals. Olsen had six catches for 110 yards against the Buccaneers in Week 2 with a hobbled Cam on an ugly, rainy, Thursday Night Football game that the Panthers only had 352 yards of total offense.
5. Carlos Hyde a solid start.
With bye weeks in full force, finding players who have an opportunity is key. Carols Hyde has cemented his role as the early-down back for the Texans and has a juicy match-up against the Chiefs this week. Mark Ingram, Kerryon Johnson, and Marlon Mack have all gone over 100 yards against the Chiefs in the past three weeks, and all have scored at least 15 points. The Chiefs give up 5.8 yards per carry to opposing running backs, and Hyde has scored two touchdowns in the past three games serving as the goal line back. Hyde is a solid flex play and RB2 for those in need of a bye week replacement. The game that figures to see plenty of scoring as the highest over/under for the week in the mid-50s.
6. Pump the breaks on Matt Breida
San Francisco currently leads the league in rushing attempts per game (38.5), rushing yards per game (200), and tied for sixth with six rushing TDs. But those who saw the 27 point game on Monday Night from Matt Breida and expect him to be catapulted Breida into an every-week RB2 are sadly mistaken. Breida has the talent, but talent isn’t the issue. He has a few things working against him. First off, the 49ers are a full blow Running-back-by-committee, with Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, and even Jeff Wilson getting significant carries. Breida was second in rushing attempts in Week 5 with 11 to 16 for Coleman, but broke off a career-best 83 yard touchdown on his first run of the night. The 49ers also lost FB Kyle Juszczyk for four-to-six weeks due to a knee injury, who’s run blocking is a key to the success of the ground game. Breida is a solid flex play for bye weeks, but don’t anoint him to RB2 status just yet. He has a high ceiling yes, but also has a very low floor.
7. Sell Jordan Howard, Buy Miles Sanders.
The arrow is pointing up for both Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders with Darren Sproles being week-to-week (which wound up being 10 weeks last year). That means the three-headed monster is down to two. Howard is smack dab in the middle of a hot streak in which he’s scored five TDs in the last 3 games, and Doug Pederson recently said that Howard is “becoming the lead back. I would be looking to move Howard before Week 6, as his value is extremely high, and he’s about to face the fifth toughest fantasy match-up for running backs in the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have only given up one rushing touchdown all year. Even being the “lead back” Howard has only had more touches than Sanders one week, a Week 4 game against the Packers that Howard had 4 TDs and 31 points. Sanders leads the Eagles running backs in virtually every meaningful category: snap percentage (40.9), rushing attempts (53), touches (64), targets (19), receptions (10), red-zone targets (3), and red zone touches (11). Sanders is also only 55 rushing yards behind Howard on the season (248 to 193). Howard has all the hype right now, but it’s only a matter of time before Sanders takes over this backfield. Go get him now, he has league-winning potential upside.
8. Some fantasy value in the Toilet Bowl.
A game that could see the loser wind up with the #1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Redskins versus the Dolphins has arguably the two worst teams in the NFL matching up against one another. Thankfully for fantasy purposes, the quality of the game doesn’t matter a whole lot, as there are some diamonds in the rough that will provide some value this week. Both defenses are absolutely horrible, ranking bottom-five in total points and yards per game (Miami being dead last in both). I would stay away from both starting QBs, but I would start just about every skill position player available, starting with “Scary” Terry McLaurin. Interim Redskins Head Coach Bill Callahan has stated he wants to focus on the run, so Adrian Peterson could see an uptick in touches against a defense that has allowed nine touchdowns to RBs this season. The Redskins are one of the best match-ups in fantasy for wide receivers, so Preston Williams and even DeVante Parker offer some flex appeal. It will be ugly, but both the Dolphins and Redskins offer some solid flex plays in a week where teams may need it with four teams on bye. Hold your nose and plug them into your lineup.
9. Vikings will actually throw the ball.
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The Vikings are one of the run-heaviest teams in the league, but this week they face the league-best rush defense of the Philadelphia Eagles. It will be a difficult task for Vikings to establish the run against the Eagles, which will have to throw the ball more than they prefer. As good as the Eagles rush defense is, their pass defense is the exact opposite. The Eagles are extremely banged up in the secondary, four of the Eagles corner-backs are hurt, and three of the corner-backs who are on the team weren’t on the roster two weeks ago. The Eagles give up the sixth-most passing yards (271.2) and are tied for the fifth-most passing TD’s given up (9) this season. Kirk Cousins is a solid QB streamer and Superflex starter this week, with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs both rock-solid WR2’s with upside.
10. Don’t start Darnold just yet.
The Jets offense has been abysmal without Sam Darnold, and the news is a gigantic boost to the values of Le’Veon Bell, Robby Anderson, and Jamison Crowder. With injuries to QBs piling up and bye weeks upon us, it will be tempting to throw Darnold right into your lineup. If at all possible, I would suggest avoiding doing so. The Jets face a Cowboys defense that is a bottom-five fantasy matchup for opposing QBs who just held Aaron Rodgers to 238 yards and zero touchdowns in Week 5. Darnold is also coming back from Mono, a virus that completely zaps your energy and can take months to completely recover from. You may not have a choice, but this is a circumstance where I would buy the icing before buying the cake. I have no issues starting Anderson, Crowder, or Bell. But be aware it could take Darnold some time to get back to full speed, and with a tough matchup, I would avoid at all costs.
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