10 Things We Learned in Week 9 (#fantasy football)

After the NFL trade deadline, some teams are starting over at certain positions. It is almost like grade 9 again. You are rising up the ranks of student hierarchy and then suddenly you are at a new school and are once again forced to work your way up. Some NFL players are experiencing that on new teams and fantasy football managers need to react to those occurrences. Here are 10 things we learned in week 9.

Raid the Defense

How do you ensure a QB making his first career start has the best opportunity to win? Have them play the Raiders of course. Nick Mullens has been on the 49ers practice squad since signing as an undrafted free-agent in 2017. With injuries to Jimmy Garoppolo and C.J. Beathard, Mullens finally got his NFL chance in week 9. He responded with an efficient 16-for-22 for 262 yards and 3 TDs. Now, I do not expect him to have this type of performance every week. In fact, Mullens is not my big take away from this game. What we learned is that Oakland is one of the defenses that fantasy managers should target when making their sit/start selections. The Raiders have allowed at least 20 points in every game this season and at least 33 in half of them. Players at all positions are having productive fantasy outings against them. There is probably not another defense in the league that I would prefer to target for weakly fantasy matchups.

Take the Duke Train

Much like his namesake Duke Ellington did throughout his career, the Browns pass-catching RB composed something special in week 9. For decades, Duke Ellington was one of the most prominent jazz musicians, composers and band leaders of the 20th century, creating jazz standards such as “Take the A Train” and “Satin Doll”. Duke Johnson had the first 2 TD game of his career, meaning that he was productive in standard formats and not just PPR (point per reception). Perhaps both Hue Jackson and Todd Haley being fired created the ideal scenario as Johnson lead Cleveland in targets for the first time in 2018.  This led to a single-season season high for receiving yards with 78. In contests such as this one, where the Browns are behind early and often, QB Baker Mayfield will probably continue to ride the Duke Johnson train. Those types of game will probably be common for Cleveland. Therefore, Johnson is a fringe every week flex option in PPR leagues.

Jet Stream

There was no easing Elijah McGuire into action coming off of a foot injury. In his 2018 debut, he out-snapped Isaiah Crowell 36-23. Although Crowell had more carries (13 to 7) it was McGuire who was more efficient (4.3 to 3.8 yards per carry [YPC]). McGuire was also used more than other RBs in the passing game. In week 9, he was third on the Jets in targets, receptions, receiving yards and fourth in yards per reception (YPR). This signals that McGuire will take over the primary pass-catching RB duties for New York. Since Bilal Powell landed on IR, Trenton Cannon had been occupying that role. His offensive snap counts decreased from 23 and 29 in weeks 7 and 8 respectively, to 7 in this most recent game. With Powell’s career in question, look for McGuire to fight for a significant spot on this offense, not only this year but beyond. For fantasy football purposes, McGuire is at least a streaming option in PPR formats down the stretch.

Viking Death March

After taking some time away from the game, DE Everson Griffen has played around 72% of the defensive snaps over the last 2 weeks. While he and the Vikings defense had a rough outing against the Saints, they came back and dominated the Lions in week 9. The team managed to sack QB Matthew Stafford 10 times and his return was a big factor. While Griffen only got 1.5 sacks himself, his presence forces opponents attention, which in this case led to a big game from Danielle Hunter. With most of their defensive playmakers back in tow, Minnesota appears to be a very difficult opponent for the remainder of 2018. Avoid starting fantasy players who go up against the Vikings, especially if their teams have struggling offensive lines. They may now be the preeminent defense to avoid or risk the potential death march of your fantasy football season.

Riddick Receiving Role

With Golden Tate moved at the trade deadline, there was a significant question regarding the Lions: who will take his place as the slot receiver? Some speculated that T.J. Jones would walk into that spot, while other believed that Brandon Powell was destined for the role. In reality, it was Theo Riddick who saw the majority of the (almost) 10 targets per game that were vacated by Tate’s departure. In his return from a two-game absence, Riddick tied for the team lead in targets with 8. Perhaps either Jones or Powell will eventually graduate into the Detroit slot receiver role. For now, the team has the trust of Riddick. Even though he is an RB, Riddick has almost as many career receptions (254) as rushing attempts (256). Clearly, Matthew Stafford has no problem targeting the Riddick and niether should fantasy managers in PPR formats.

Full Kupp

In his first came back from a sprained MCL, Cooper Kupp looked to be as close to fully healthy as possible. He played in 100% of the offensive snaps for the second time in 2018. Also, he looked to be running at full speed on his 41-yard catch and run TD. On a shallow out-route, he managed to get around the corner and out-run defenders to the end zone. He also blocked well on Todd Gurley‘s TD run. Fantasy managers should have no concerns about playing Kupp the rest of the year.

Trading Thomas – Part I

According to current 0.5 PPR (point per reception) standings, Michael Thomas is 3rd among WRs. A major factor for that is his 70 receptions, placing him behind only Adam Thielen in that category. In week 9, Thomas set a new career-best in single-game receiving yards with 211. The Saints WR has been catching almost everything going his way. His 88% reception rate would seem unsustainable if it were not for his QB. Drew Brees holds the single-season (72% in 2017) and career (67.2%) records for completion percentage and is currently breaking the single-season mark (76% in 2018). While there have been games where Thomas disappears (4 receptions, 47 yards in week 4), when the Saints need him, he is ready to produce. In week 9, New Orleans was hosting the 8-0 Rams, whose high-powered offense has been scoring on every opponent. This game featured a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara as well as Thomas. When the Saints are in catch up mode, those two will be key to the Saints’ success. New Orleans has games upcoming against the Eagles, Falcons, Panthers (x2) and Steelers. All matchups that make it worth attempting to acquire Thomas in exchange for almost any WR.

Trading Thomas – Part II

With the departure of Demaryius Thomas via trade, many expected Courtland Sutton would see an expanded role. Instead, he was only targeted 5 times in week 9. It was Jeff Heuerman, however, who had the most productive fantasy day for Denver. The TE saw a career high in targets, receptions and receiving yards during the game against the Texans. Heuerman is also riding a 2-game TD streak after being held out of the end zone during the first 7 weeks of 2018. After the Broncos bye week, Heuerman should be a solid streaming option during the stretch run and the fantasy playoffs.

Say Cheese

Yet another team that was involved in a trade during last week’s deadline, as Green Bay traded Ty Montgomery to the Ravens. While we do not yet know how this will affect Baltimore’s backfield after their week 10 bye, we did see a glimpse of the Packers’ plans at the position. Aaron Jones saw season-bests with 16 touches and 43 offensive snaps. Had he not fumbled during the game, those numbers may have been even higher. With Jones’ emergence, it is not as if Jamaal Williams‘ role will disappear. He saw the second highest snap percentage (41.9%) since Jones’ 2-game suspension to start the season. If these expanded roles continue to evolve than Jones will be on the verge of an every-week starter in a potentially potent offense, while Williams will be worth rostering in deeper leagues. It is not picture perfect, but anything rarely is in fantasy football.

Flying the Coop(er)

In their first game with their new WR, the Cowboys did not limit Amari Cooper‘s usage. He led all Dallas WRs in offensive snaps played with 50. He also paced the team in targets with 8. For those who rolled the dice and put Cooper into their fantasy lineups, there was some reward. A 5 reception, 58 yards, 1 TD stat line is not otherworldly, but it may be the best to expect from a receiver joining a new team. The worry with Cooper is that the Cowboys offense tends to be run-first. The loss to the Titans was only the third game this season where Dak Prescott exceeded 30 pass attempts. This is in contrast to Derek Carr who has only thrown less than 30 passes twice in 2018. Cooper has been boom-or-bust throughout his career and that will probably not change in Dallas. What we learned is that the upside exists as Cooper scored only his second TD of the season.

Thank you for reading. I hope you all learned something. Now, it is time to study our fantasy teams in order to get into the best position to win games down the stretch. In additional tutoring is needed, Going for 2 has an abundance great fantasy football content. For any questions or comments, I can be found on Twitter @nyama_ks.

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