10 Things You Need to Know For Week 4 (#FantasyFootball)
It’s hard to believe that its already Week 4 of the season, and things are starting to normalize just a bit. We have enough information to make some informed decisions and see the true trends that are starting to turn into facts. Let’s take a look at 10 things that you need to know for Week 4.
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1. Nick Chubb is just fine.
I hope you bought low on Nick Chubb after Week 1 because you certainly aren’t able to know. There was a lot of panic when Chubb wasn’t used in the fourth quarter of the Browns blowout loss to the Ravens, but he’s put any worry to rest since then. Chubb has scored over 25 and 23 points in Weeks 2 and 3 respectively, scoring two touchdowns and going over the century mark in both. Yes, the big difference in those two games was the game script was favorable, so it led to Chubb getting over twenty touches in both games. But Cleveland is a run-first team, they are the second run-heaviest team at a 53% rushing play percentage. Nick Chubb is one of the best pure runners in the entire league and is averaging 5.7 rushing yards per attempt. Although Hunt is the “pass-catching back”, Chubb has very capable hands as well. I hope you read my “10 Things” in Week 2 and didn’t panic with Chubb. He’s an RB1 no matter the matchup.
2. Rookie WR breakout party.
Three rookie wide receivers showed up in a big way in Week 3. Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson broke out to the tune of 7 catches for 175 yards and a touchdown. It looks like he’s locked into the Stefon Diggs role in this offense and his targets should continue to increase as the season goes on. He’s a WR3 the rest of the season if his involvement in the offense continues. Cincinnati’s Tee Higgins didn’t have quite the yardage Jefferson had, but caught two touchdowns to go along with five receptions and 40 yards. While I like Higgins’s talent, I still think AJ Green will eventually get things going and this team still has Tyler Boyd as well. Higgins is more of a flex play/bye week replacement, but he has the ability for big weeks as well. Last but not least, San Francisco’s Brandon Aiyuk was one of many players who went off against the Giants, catching 5 passes for 70 yards and rushing for 31 yards and a touchdown. It’s exciting to see how Kyle Shanahan plans on using him all over the field, but I’d pump the breaks on Aiyuk just a bit. George Kittle, Raheem Mostert, and Deebo Samuel will be back soon, so Aiyuk will have to compete for touches. He’s worth a pick-up and stash, but I’m not comfortable plugging him in right away.
3. Nick Foles is the Bears starter.
Although it seems odd that an undefeated team would bench their starting quarterback, the 3-0 Chicago Bears did that. But anyone who has watched Mitch Trubisky play this season would understand why. Outside of throwing three fourth-quarter touchdowns in Week 1 playing catch-up versus Detroit, Trubisky has been abysmal. Nick “BDN” Foles led a comeback of his own, after taking over for Trubisky in the second half of their Week 3 game versus Atlanta and throwing for 188 yards and three touchdowns. Foles has been named the Week 4 starter and “beyond”, which elevates the entire Bears offense. Allen Robinson has had a slow start to the season, but this move firmly plants him in WR1 territory, and I expect him to go on a tear soon. I also expect a boost in production from offseason darling Anthony Miller, and he’s someone I’m looking to stash where I can. Foles has also brought Jimmy Graham back to life with a six catch, two-touchdown performance in Week 3. He’s not someone I’m ready to trust yet, but you can’t ignore ten targets. Graham is firmly on the streaming radar. Foles is a solid QB2 for Superflex leagues and a viable bye week replacement.
4.Joe Burrow should have a field day vs Jacksonville.
Number one overall pick Joe Burrow has impressed through his first three games. He’s thrown for multiple touchdowns and 300 yards in Weeks 2 and 3 and has the potential to have a true breakout game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags give up the second-most yards per passing attempt with eight, the third-most passing touchdowns at seven, and have the second-fewest sacks in the league with three. The Jaguars give up the fifth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position, and with the over/under continuing to go up (opening at 44.5, as of Friday it sat at 49.5) a high scoring affair is likely. AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, and Tee Higgins are all in a position to have big days, and Burrow should be locked and loaded as a high-end QB2 who could easily wind up as a QB1 this week. Fire him up.
5. Temper expectations for Myles Gaskin.
Without a doubt one of the most surprising things so far this season is the emergence of Myles Gaskin. With the Dolphins acquiring both Matt Breida and Jordan Howard this offseason, nobody expected Gaskin to lead this backfield. He has a 67.7% snap count, and if that continues Gaskin will produce solid numbers. But don’t get too excited just yet. I’m not saying I think Gaskin is someone you shouldn’t roster or start in the right matchups. But he has some warts that put him more in the flex/RB3 range versus what many see him as, an emerging RB2. First off, Jordan Howard is vulturing his touchdowns. That’s a huge problem and knocks off a significant chunk of value from Gaskin. Although he got 22 rushing attempts in Week 3 against Jacksonville, he only mustered 66 yards (3 yards-per-carry). Yes, he’s getting targets and catches, but he’s not doing much with them. Gaskin is averaging five catches a game, but only 30 receiving yards. He’s a solid value due to the fact he was free in almost all leagues. But don’t make him out to be something he’s not. Proceed with caution and sell high if you can.
6. Fire up all your Falcons and Packers.
Plenty of fireworks are expected at Lambeau Field on Monday Night Football, as the game between the Falcons and Packers has the highest over/under on the board (a whopping 56.5 at the time of writing this article). It’s obvious to play the likes of Aaron Jones, Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley, but this is a perfect game to fire up the lower-tiered players on these teams. Russell Gage and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are great WR3/Flex plays (especially since Allen Lazard is out indefinitely). Todd Gurley has been disappointing so far but is in a get right spot that could see him fall into the end-zone. Gurley’s backup Brian Hill (who may overtake him soon) has been productive as well and is a worthy dart throw if you’re stuck due to the Tenn/Pit postponement. Even TE Robert Tonyan is a decent desperation play at TE thanks to what should be a game that scores in the 60’s. If you’re in a tough spot, look on waivers to see if any players from Atlanta or Green Bay are available.
7. Miles Sanders is a true bell-cow.
If there was anybody left that doubted the bell-cow status of Miles Sanders in the Philadelphia backfield, they ought to be convinced otherwise after weeks 2 and 3. All offseason all you heard was “Doug Peterson only uses running-back-by-committee” and “The Eagles will draft or sign a veteran running back”. Those things didn’t happen, and in two games this season, Sanders is averaging 19 carries and 7.5 targets a game. If Carson Wentz wouldn’t have overthrown Sanders on a wheel route that was a sure touchdown in Week 3, he would have had a huge game. With the lack of production from the passing game, the injuries to Wentz’s receiving options, and Sanders touches remaining in the twenties, it’s undeniable that Sanders is the bell-cow so many doubted he can be. If someone still doubts this, look and see if you can trade for him. He’s a top 10 fantasy back who is going to have a monster season.
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8.Buy low on Nyheim Hines.
Many touted Nyheim Hines as a league-winning pickup after a monster 26 point Week 1 performance versus the Jaguars. Hines rewarded managers who blew tons of Faab on him by falling flat on his face Week 2 by scoring one whole point (one catch for four yards). He bounced back a little in Week 3 with a 10 point outing, but many frustrated managers have dropped him, and I think that’s a big mistake. While I don’t think Hines is the potential PPR stud he looked like in Week 1, in the right matchups he can still be a useful PPR flex/back-end RB2. His non-existent usage in Week 2 was due to the fact the Colts were in control the entire game, and simply used Jonathan Taylor to grind the game away. Hines still leads this team in targets (13), and even with the game against the Vikings where he barely saw the field isn’t too far behind Taylor in snap percentage (48 to 33). Hines is a worthy bench stash who is playable when the matchup is right. If he’s available on waivers, scoop him up.
9. Darrell Henderson will have himself a day.
Darrell Henderson Jr has run wild since taking over this backfield in Week 2. He’s scored a touchdown and had over 100 yards from scrimmage the past two weeks, and gets to face a Giants defense that’s giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. New York has allowed four opposing running backs to score in double digits in three games, with two over twenty. Henderson is averaging 19 fantasy points per game and has the potential to go nuclear this week. He’s a rock-solid RB2 with the potential to end up as an RB1 in a matchup where he should go off.
10. Covid finally rears its ugly head on the NFL season.
We’ve been spoiled through three weeks of the NFL season, as both fans and fantasy managers. The season has been relatively unscathed up until this point, but the game between the Titans and the Steelers has been postponed to later in the year. From a fantasy standpoint, outside of the obvious situation managers are put by having a surprise bye for Titans and Steelers, there is some good news. AJ Brown and Dionte Johnson were both questionable to play this week (Brown likely out), if you have either on your team they are likely to get an extra game this season now. Depth is more important than ever this season. With rumors of byes getting shuffled around and this more than likely not be the last time we have to deal with Covid this season, prepare for the unexpected. I’m normally someone who thinks you don’t change ANY rules during the season, even if loopholes are discovered. But 2020 is a year unlike we’ve ever seen (and hopefully never see again). Be flexible, worth with managers to make things workable. Although its a competition, fantasy is also supposed to be fun. Expand benches, Covid-IR, whatever makes it possible for your league to continue, and managers not be at a significant disadvantage because of something out of their control.
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