2017 Fantasy Football Week 6 Buy Low/Sell High

Buy Low

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Running Back

LeSean McCoy – With the injury to Charles Clay, the Bills are left with LeSean McCoy, Tyrod Taylor, and nothing else. Taylor can’t do everything with his legs, and while the Bills will be in plenty of negative game scripts the rest of the year, McCoy should be the clear focus of the offense. He hasn’t scored this season, frustrating fantasy owners. He’s involved in the passing games seeing 32 targets in the first five weeks, and has 23.8 opportunities per game. The volume is there and McCoy has plenty of talent. I see him as a high-end RB2 even on a bad offense, and you can now buy him for that price rather than the first round price he cost at the beginning of the year.

Wide Receiver

DeVante Parker – Parker saw an average of 9 targets per game in his first three weeks of the season. In those three weeks, Parker ranked second behind Antonio Brown in air yards (airyards.com). While he was injured last week and missed most of the game, he should be back soon, but it could lead some owners to panic. The Dolphins offense has been horrendous to start the year and Parker has still performed well. If the Dolphins can get it together on offense, Parker will explode. I see him as a solid WR2 when healthy, but I think you can buy him for RB3/WR3 value.

Wide Receiver

Amari Cooper – This is the most obvious buy in dynasty leagues, but Cooper is still a buy in season-long leagues. This season Cooper is known for drops, single-catch performances, and failing to live up to the hype. While I don’t think he’ll crack the top 12 WRs this season, he can still be valuable in fantasy. Cooper has seven drop this season, accounting for at least 18.1 PPR fantasy points. He’s always struggled with drops, but it’s hard to imagine they’ll continue to this extreme (7 drops, 13 catches). Derek Carr’s injury has further opened the window to buy Cooper, even though Carr will be back soon. I think Cooper is in the WR3 territory, but it won’t take much more than a bench player to buy him right now.

Buying Strategy

Buy to avoid bye weeks – One of my favorite strategies is buying players to avoid bye weeks. The best way I can explain this is with an example. Let’s pretend I own Carson Wentz as my quarterback. Wentz has his bye in week 10. For this reason, I will often target a player who has already had his bye, like Kirk Cousins. Trading Wentz for Cousins may seem like a lateral move, but it lets me avoid a bye week at my quarterback position. Additionally, I would stick the Cousins owner with two bye weeks to cover, creating an extra advantage in my league. This strategy should be executed with care and while considering matchups, but can be a valuable strategy if used correctly. This strategy is especially viable in 2QB leagues and deep leagues where backups and waiver options are worse than in 1QB and shallow bench leagues.

Sell High

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Quarterback

Deshaun Watson (again) – I thought Watson’s week 4 performance would be his best fantasy performance of the season, but apparently I was wrong. He’s been on fire the past two weeks, but I still don’t see this production continuing. Watson’s touchdown percentage this season is now at 8.3%, highest in the league. To put that into perspective, Tom Brady has a career 5.5% TD% and Aaron Rodgers has a career 6.4% TD%. When the touchdowns regress, I still think Watson is a high-end QB2, but with two amazing weeks in a row, he’s incredible easy to sell for more.

Running Back

Aaron Jones – While Jones was impressive and has likely carved out a role for himself in the offense, he’s a sell high candidate. Ty Montgomery will be back relatively soon and will retake the featured role. I can see a split in carries for Jones and Montgomery, but it’s highly unlikely Jones sees the volume he saw against the Cowboys. For these reasons, I’m selling Jones to anyone except the Montgomery owner.

Running Back

Duke Johnson Jr. – Johnson Jr. currently ranks as RB7 in PPR leagues. He’s heavily involved in the Browns offensive attack, but still only plays about 50% of the offensive snaps. He’s scored a touchdown in three straight games, a streak that is unlikely to continue in such a bad offense. The receptions will stabilize his floor, and Johnson is an RB2 in PPR leagues, but now is the time to sell him if you can return RB1/WR1 or WR2 value for him.

Wide Receiver

Will Fuller – Fuller has played just two weeks and averages just over 20 PPR points per game. Casual fantasy owners will be excited about the touchdowns without looking deeper into the data. Fuller has 4 touchdowns on only 9 targets and 6 receptions. This type of efficiency will not continue, leaving Fuller to drop below his current value.

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