2018 Fantasy Football FantasyPros/GoingFor2 Mock Draft 1.0

*12-team league, PPR, 1QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 1TE, 1Flex(W,R,T), K, Def, 6Bench

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Jeremy Maw @j_maw for GoingFor2 (Picking from 1.01)

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What was your strategy going in and how do you think it turned out for you?

My strategy going into this draft was simply wait on quarterback and tight end. In the one hole, it is hard to predict who will be remaining on the board when the draft comes back around. Selecting who I thought were the best players available and adjusting to the trends in the draft was how I made my picks. I knew I would secure a top end running back with the first overall pick. Balancing the team with a top-tier receiver like Doug Baldwin, who should see a lot more red zone targets after the departure of Jimmy Graham, was exactly how I wanted to start.
Overall, I am happy with how my team turned out. I believe Jay Ajayi and Emmanuel Sanders were great value selections who should have great bounce-back seasons in defined roles.
With a solid core, I was then able to take more risks on players like Nyheim Hines and Dede Westbrook while also handcuffing Ajayi with Wendell Smallwood.
Matt Ryan was an easy selection at the end of the 10^th round who has one of the most dangerous offenses in front of him.

Who do you think was the best pick in the draft?

Rex Burkhead. Although the Patriots backfield is undoubtedly crowded, I think Burkhead will breakthrough and become the top fantasy producer. Sony Michel will have a short leash and showed fumbling concerns at Georgia. James White will get the third down opportunities, but Burkhead will get the bulk of the red zone touches. Scoring eight times in just 10 games last season, Burkhead has almost assumed the role of LeGarrette Blount from two years ago, with better pass-catching upside. Burkhead was selected as the 33^rd running back off the board, but could easily finish in the top 10-15 with his touchdown potential.

Who was the worst pick?

Cam Newton. Not because of where he went overall in the draft, but because he was drafted as a backup to Tom Brady. Although waiting on quarterbacks is not everyone’s philosophy, drafting two top-tier QB’s in the first eight rounds does not make a lot of sense. To start, each week you will have to make a decision on which to start. Both have elite upside every week and therefore one will get a lot of bench points during the season. Secondly, the other positions are much more shallow. The depth at wide receiver and running back does not compare to that of the quarterback position. I feel like taking a running back instead would have helped this team significantly more

Jamy Bechler @winningDFS101 for FantasyPros (Picking from 1.02)

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What was your strategy going in and how do you think it turned out for you?

Who do you think was the best pick in the draft?

Chris Ivory at 11.03 by Masterjules. I wanted Ivory (since I drafted McCoy) but thought I could wait longer since his ADP is 186. This was a savvy pickup since McCoy’s status is up in the air.

Who was the worst pick?

Sony Michel at #52 by EthSau. His ADP is 58 and his Fantasy Pros rank is 60th so where he was selected isn’t a huge reach. I just don’t like taking a NE running back that early, especially a rookie.

Marc Mathyk @Masterjune20 for FantasyPros (Picking from 1.03)

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What was your strategy going in and how do you think it turned out for you?

My strategy was no real strategy. I knew I would get a running back in the first round at pick three but after that, I was just going with the flow. I also knew I wanted a rookie running back – either Derrius Guice or Royce Freeman – the two rookie RBs I like the most.

I am not enamored with my wide receivers and feel I perhaps took too many risks in the second half of the draft. I like my quarterbacks and my tight ends but my other offensive positions are volatile. I guess, all in all, I wanted balance (5 RBs, 5 WRs, 2 QBs, 2 TEs).

I think I could ultimately use one of my tight ends as a flex in case my later round players like Ballage or don’t hit their mark.

Who do you think was the best pick in the draft?

I think Rishard Matthews in the 12^th was a steal. He’s such an undervalued wide receiver. Corey Davis goes in the fifth and Matthews in the 12th. Value is the latter for sure. I mean Mike Williams went ahead of Matthews… I think not!

Who was the worst pick?

Marquise Goodwin was too much of a reach at the beginning of the 5^thround. He seems more like an 8^th rounder for me. Very strange pick indeed. He must be a Goodwin truther.

Ethan Sauers @ethansauers for FantasyPros (Picking from 1.04)

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What was your strategy going in and how do you think it turned out for you?

My strategy was to go RB-Heavy in the mid-range tier, as I really like the value that they provide. Since I had a top-4 pick, I knew I’d take whichever stud RB fell to me and saw that I could grab two top WRs w/ picks 2 & 3.

After grabbing two volume-magnet WRs, I knew I could take those mid-range RBs. From the lot of Collins, Michel, Coleman, and Burkhead I gained a ton of versatility and gives me the flexibility to trade once I have an idea what to expect from each of them (or even trade Zeke if they all hit).

I was a little bummed that Marqise Lee was grabbed in the 9th before I had a chance but loved that Benjamin made it back to me in the 10th. I don’t normally grab a defense before the last two rounds, but I think the Chargers could be the #1 D this year and jumped at a chance to grab them.

Additionally, I wouldn’t normally draft a kicker, but did for the sake of the mock.

Who do you think was the best pick in the draft?

Keenan Allen at 2.7 is a solid value, in my mind. I think Allen should have gone 3 or 4 spots earlier (I’m high on him — I have him as my WR5 going into the year) but I think the best value overall is Marshawn at 9.9.

I don’t love Marshawn, but I do believe he’ll be the starter in Oakland as long as he’s healthy. I also think he’s got great TD equity on that team. I think FantasyBeast really hit a home run being able to grab him as his 4th RB.

Who was the worst pick?

For me, it’s a tie between LeSean McCoy at 4.11 or Mariota at 14.11. I understand McCoy’s appeal with the high-upside. But with the recent legal issues on top of an aging body, I don’t think McCoy plays 10 games, this year (I think he’ll end up on the Commissioner’s Exempt List a la Adrian Peterson in 2014).

With Mariota, it’s entirely a positional deal. Nobody needs to draft 3QBs unless you’re in a 2QB league (especially when your only 2 RBs are Bell & McCoy.

Brad Ritcher @RotoPilot for GoingFor2 (Picking from 1.05)

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What was your strategy going in and how do you think it turned out for you?

Since this was my first mock draft of the season, I didn’t have any preconceived strategy going into the draft. That said, I typically like to draft a balanced team getting one RB and one WR through the first two rounds and two RB and three WR through the first five rounds, which I was able to accomplish without reaching for a player.

I, like many, subscribe to the idea of drafting a QB late and was able to scoop up Drew Brees in the 9th round as the 9^th QB off the board. I also typically shoot for high upside players in the later rounds who could become every week starters if things break right for them and I was able to do that with Aaron Jones (RB), Cameron Meredith (WR) and Dez Bryant (WR) in rounds 10-12.

Overall, I felt that I had a successful draft and finished with a strong team at every position.

Who do you think was the best pick in the draft?

T.Y. Hilton (3.4) – He was the 12^th WR off the board and was squarely in my sights to pick with the very next selection.

Who was the worst pick?

Allen Robinson (3.12) – He has only had one good season (2015) and is coming off an ACL injury that cost him all of last season. He needs a lot of things to go right for him to meet or exceed being picked this high.

Eli Weiner @eweiner_bball for FantasyPros (Picking from 1.06)

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What was your strategy going in and how do you think it turned out for you?

To be honest – and I would NEVER give this advice for a real draft – I didn’t really have a strategy. This was my first industry mock, so I was curious to see how the board would play out. Generally in PPR drafts, though, I tend to hammer wide receivers and try and make up for it with pass-catching RB2s, which I mostly did.

And, I always wait on a quarterback, so drafting Philip Rivers at 12.07 (as the last starter drafted) was more than comfortable. I feel pretty good about the Devontae Booker/Gio Bernard/Matt Breida three-headed monster at RB3. All have legitimate roles in offenses that should be improved from last year.

A word of caution, though: I’m so used to doing best ball drafts that the best ball strategy clearly seeped into this re-draft mock. Even as someone willing to embrace risk, drafting Josh Gordon, Will Fuller and Robby Anderson aren’t for the faint of heart.

That said, I still balanced those risk/reward ceiling plays with steady if unsexy floor options in Alvin Kamara, Keenan Allen (a steal at 2.07 in PPR), Lamar Miller and Robert Woods.

Who do you think was the best pick in the draft?

You mean aside from every pick I made? Delanie Walker at 7.12 in a full PPR draft is highway robbery. It’s higher than consensus, but I have Delanie as my TE5 this year now that Hunter Henry is done.

He’s in an ascending offense with a new innovative offense coach, and both he and Mariota are due for some positive touchdown regression. He’s as steady as they come with four straight 800+ yard receiving seasons, but his ceiling makes him a screaming value.

I was more than pleased with Zach Ertz falling to 4.07 in full PPR considering I’ve seen him go in the mid-third in .5 PPR, but ultimately regretted that when Delanie was sitting there in the seventh.

Who was the worst pick?

I’m not a fan of Deshaun Watson at his ADP, but that’s an easy target. There really weren’t any picks I found egregiously bad, per se, but there were a few reaches in the double-digit rounds.

Drafting Kalen Ballage in the 12th is pretty questionable – he’s a fourth-round rookie who didn’t even dominate his own backfield in college despite average competition.

Mike Williams is a best ball-only play for me, so I was surprised to see him go in the 11th, especially with better floor/ceiling combos on the board like Cam Meredith, Rishard Matthews(!) and Tyler Lockett. Wendell Smallwood in the 13th was equally confusing.

Jason Katz @jasonkatz13 for FantasyPros (Picking from 1.07)

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What was your strategy going in and how do you think it turned out for you?

Ryan Melosi @rtmelos for FantasyPros  (Picking from 1.08)

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What was your strategy going in and how do you think it turned out for you?

My strategy going in, like every draft, was to take the best player available in the early rounds and then adapt from there. I don’t have to have a top running back like so many people claim you need, and I grabbed two top receivers early because of it.

As I get into the middle of my drafts I’m not worried about having the next big thing or the hot sleeper. I’m looking for steady production and I think I found some. Overall I’m happy with how the squad turned out.

Who do you think was the best pick in the draft?

Who was the worst pick?

FantasyBeast @FantasyBeast15 for GoingFor2 (Picking from 1.09)

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What was your strategy going in and how do you think it turned out for you?

For all of my drafts, I go into the draft looking to pick the best player available. This typically directs me toward waiting on quarterbacks and tight ends, but this year, there are three tight ends I am willing to take early if the situation presents itself.

I have third-round grades on Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce and a fourth-round grade on Zach Ertz. Once these three tight ends are taken, I usually find myself waiting until the late rounds to select a tight end.

In 2018, I’m comfortable with 16 different quarterbacks as my starter in 1QB leagues. For that reason, in 12 team leagues where I expect most fantasy owners to select only one quarterback, waiting on quarterback is the most logical strategy. 

In this draft, I picked ninth, so by the nature of the draft, Gronkowski and Kelce were selected before I could get to them. In the fourth round, I considered Ertz, but simply preferred the value of Demaryius Thomas. I chose Stafford at 12.4, one round higher than I usually take my QB, but at the time of the draft, I had Stafford as my QB10 overall, so it was good value.

My strategy worked out well. I have a strong core of running backs and wide receivers, and ended up with a good quarterback. I missed on two tight end values who went one round earlier than I expected (George Kittle/Jack Doyle), but I’m satisfied with O.J. Howard as a 14^th round selection.

Who do you think was the best pick in the draft?

My favorite pick in the draft was, Robert Woods at 8.07. Woods ended up going 91^st overall in our draft, and at the time of the pick, I had Woods ranked as my 73^rd overall player. ESPN’s Mike Clay is even more bullish on Woods as he ranked him 52^nd overall.

Woods is a reliable option for Jared Goff, and I don’t think Brandin Cooks will cut into Woods’ target share much more than Sammy Watkins did last season. Snagging a solid WR3/Flex this late in the draft was a great pick by @eweiner_bball.

Who was the worst pick?

There were a few puzzling picks in this draft, but my least favorite pick was Marquise Goodwin at 5.01, the 24^th WR off the board. At the time of the draft, I had Goodwin ranked as my 37^th wide receiver in PPR and I may move him down in my next rankings update.

Although Goodwin had a brilliant three-game stretch with Jimmy Garoppolo in December, he doesn’t project to catch many more than 50 passes in 2018. I expect Pierre Garcon to be the target hog in the 49ers offense. 

Mike Kelley @MikeKelleyDLP for GoingFor2 (Picking from 1.10)

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What was your strategy going in and how do you think it turned out for you?

My strategy was to make the best starting team that I could. I would normally never draft a defense or kicker, but for this mock, I wanted to make sure I got them and got one of the top ones so I could make the most complete team I could.

My bench might suffer some but in a mock where I am not worried about injuries, I am less concerned about my bench. I think I assembled a very solid starting lineup. Russell Wilson is possibly the highest scoring QB. Leonard Fournette and Derrick Henry should get plenty of carries on run first teams. Michael Thomas, Larry Fitzgerald, and Corey Davis should provide me a ton of receptions all as teams number 1 options, two of those guys went over 100 receptions last year and that is a big key in PPR leagues.

I reached a little for my TE in Jordan Reed, but if he stays healthy he is one of the best TE in the league and I got him in the 8th round. For my flex spot, I can use Cooper Kupp or Jordy Nelson either option should be a top red-zone target for their respective teams.

Rounding out my starting lineup is Justin Tucker at kicker and the Jaguars for defense, both are considered top options at their respective positions. Overall I am very pleased with how my team turned out.

Who do you think was the best pick in the draft?

My favorite pick in the draft was the 13th QB off the board in Philip Rivers who went 139h overall. Rivers has been one of the most consistent QB’s over the last decade.

This guy has a shot at pushing for a top five spot among QB’s and to get him in the 12th round was a steal in my opinion.

Who was the worst pick?

The least favorite pick is a toss-up between two guys. Josh Gordon and Deshaun Watson. But I am going to go with Gordon, he went mid third round ahead of guys like Tyreek Hill, Amari Cooper, Larry Fitzgerald, Allen Robinson, JuJu Smtih Schuster, and even teammate Jarvis Landry.

Let’s be real here the guy has played 10 games in four years too much risk when too much proven talent was still on the board.

Ryan Cearfoss @fntsyfbconnect for GoingFor2 (Picking from 1.11)

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What was your strategy going in and how do you think it turned out for you?

Coming in at pick 11 in this draft I decided to go for the best available player early, focusing on potential volume with Cook, Julio and Guice.

Normally I would hate being the first person to take a quarterback but round four was too good of a value to pass on Aaron Rodgers.  The rest of the way thru the draft I tried to fill out my roster evenly with a lot of upside picks knowing I had a huge floor with my combo of Rodgers, Cook and Julio. 

Who do you think was the best pick in the draft?

I loved the Mike Evans pick at 2.10.  It was only a year ago he was going as the second or third receiver off of the boards in fantasy and one down season he just plummets. His potential volume in that offense with an improved running game should put him in position to end up as a high volume WR1 with top 5 upside.

Pairing him with a healthy David Johnson could make for a devastating duo on a team. 

Who was the worst pick? 

Josh Gordon at pick 3.6 was super rich and a huge chance for a team. Taking him over a proven superstar with upside like Tyreek Hill is mind-blowing to me.

Josh Gordon hasn’t had a full season in five years and with a ton of guys with proven production and just as much upside no thank you. 

Geoff Lambert @GeoffLambert77 for GoingFor2 (Picking from 1.12)

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What was your strategy going in and how do you think it turned out for you?

Having done 50-plus mock drafts to this point, I went in with the strategy to take a QB early and see what type of team I ended up with. I wanted to wait until the first QB came off the board before taking my QB, but, because this mock is with a bunch of analysts, everyone was waiting on QBs, leading me to draft my QB in the fifth round — much later then I would have gotten a QB in a traditional mock draft.

I went with Deshaun Watson as my QB in the fifth, which, if you looked at my rankings is actually my No. 5 ranked QB, with my two, three and four QB still on the board. I did this to get a more accurate idea of what my team would look like in a traditional draft as I think my Top 4 QBs would have been gone by the fifth round if this mock weren’t filled with analysts.

Other than going against my normal strategy to wait on my QB, I’m fairly happy with the rest of my team. Melvin Gordon and Kareem Hunt make up a solid one-two combo at RB, and in a PPR league, I was happy to get PPR monsters Golden Tate and Jamison Crowder for my No. 2 and No. 3 WRs.

My bench is a little high-risk/high-reward with every player either rookie or a player that has yet to truly breakout. This, again, isn’t a strategy I would have employed in a real draft, but I wanted to see what my team would look like if I took a few chances. My bench is the weakest part of my team, and I would look to sell high on one of those guys if they have a good Week 1.

Who do you think was the best pick in the draft?

The best pick by far was Philip Rivers as the last “starting QB” taken at 12.07 by Eli. He was able to load up early on WRs and RBs and still land a perennial Top 10 QB. It doesn’t get much better than that.

Who was the worst pick?

I’ll stick with the QB theme to all my answers and say that Jamy taking Cam Newton at 8.11 was the worst pick. In a vacuum, it’s not a bad pick as landing Newton, my No. 3 QB currently in my rankings, in the 8th round is a good spot to get him, but it’s because Jamy took Tom Brady the round before at 7.02. Drafting two QBs so high in this draft left him very thin at RB, in fact, he only has two RBs on his entire roster and one, LeSean McCoy, may get suspended. Any of the RBs taken in the next three rounds I would have preferred over Newton in that spot.

Overall Grades

At the end of the draft, each writer had to rank each team from 12-to-1, with 12 being their favorite team and one being their least favorite team. I then added all those numbers together to determine who had the best draft and who had the worst draft. Here they are the rankings

1. Rotopilot 92 overall
2. Ethsau 76
3. GoingFor2 71 **tied
4. Katz 71 **tied
5. EliWeiner 69
6. FantasyBeast 68
7. Masterjune 67
8. Rmelosi 58 **tied
9. MikeKelley 58 **tied
10. Foss 51 
11. Jmaw 44 
12. JamyBechler 38