2018 Fantasy Football: NFC South Division Preview

Intro

 

1. Saints 11-5
2. Panthers11-5
3. Falcons 10-6
4. Buccaneers 5-11

Last year only one division had more than one team with double-digit wins and that division was the NFC South. In fact, the NFC South and three teams with double-digit wins. The NFC is loaded with talent from top to bottom. Obviously, depending on scoring system, all four quarterbacks finish in the top 20 making them all rosterable. Seven of the top 30 running backs from last year are currently in the NFC South, including three of the top ten. At the wide receiver position they had six of the top 40 and at tight end, they had four in the top 20. So as you can see last year the NFC South provided fantasy owners plenty of scorers and should be no different this year.

So what does 2018 have in store for this division? More of the same. The Saints are returning all of their core players. Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, Michael Thomas, and Ted Ginn are all back and should all produce again this year. Their big additions were free agent signings of Ben Watson and Cameron Meredith both of whom could turn into fantasy starters at their respective positions.

The Panthers were kind of the surprise team of the division. They don’t appear to have too much but just keep finding ways to win. Again another team returning the majority of the team. Their only real loss was Jonathan Stewart — if you can even call that a loss. They did add some much needed wide receiver this past offseason along with some running back depth.

Coming off the Super Bowl loss hangover the Falcons still managed 10 wins and a playoff appearance. The only offensive contributor they are losing is Taylor Gabriel, but with the addition of rookie wide receiver Calvin Ridley, they actually improved at the position. Plus they still have their core Matt Ryan, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman and Julio Jones there is no reason to think the Falcons players won’t produce again this year.

The only team in the division that failed to reach double-digit wins are the Buccaneers. Many people were expecting Jameis Winston to take the next step towards becoming one of the leagues best quarterbacks. While he did seem to be better it was not as big a step as most people were banking on. The disappointing running game may have been a factor and that was addressed in the draft with the addition of Ronald Jones. They are returning all of their receivers which should also help the offense run better this year as well.

Quarterbacks

Cam Newton (CAR)

Cam did not have a great year last year throwing the ball. In all fairness, though he lost Ted Ginn before the season, lost his top receiver in Kelvin Benjamin after week 8 in a trade with the Bills, lost his favorite and most dependable receiver in Greg Olsen for virtually 11 games to injury. I am normally not a Cam fan, because many of his points over the years has come via the running game and as scrambling QB’s get older and the hits pile up you usually start to see a decrease in the running department.

All that aside I am expecting a bounce back from Cam, it’s even possible we see passing numbers similar to 2015 when he threw for almost 4,000 yards and 35 touchdowns. The touchdowns might be a stretch, but I suspect he sits around the 30 mark as opposed to the 22 he threw last year. Oddly enough the reason why I am thinking this is because of the addition of Torey Smith. Another guy I have never been a fan because of his limited route running I think he is the perfect fit in Carolina. In that same 2015 year Ted Ginn, a player with the same skill set as Smith had a slash of 44/739/10 and having Ginn running those go routes really helped open things for Cam. So with Smith stretching the field, Olsen locking down the middle and Devin Funchess and D.J. Moore on the outside Cam should have plenty of options when looking downfield with the ball.

Drew Brees (NO)

Last year I predicted that Drew Brees would throw for less than 4,600, something he has not done since 2009. I caught a lot of flack for that call and turns out I was right. The reason why I came to that prediction was Brees was 38 years old at the time, the Saints drafted Alvin Kamara, signed Adrian Peterson, and traded off the best deep ball receiver they had in Brandin Cooks. They also gave a lot of attention on the defensive side of the ball. All of that together was a signal to me that the Saints did not want Brees throwing the ball 600 plus times again this year. Which by the way he only attempted 536 passes the lowest since you guessed it 2009. Also, consider he threw downfield less as well saving some wear and tear on the arm. So even with the addition of Cameron Meredith and Ben Watson, I am not expecting Brees to throw more this year than he did last year. But he should still have a QB1 type of year.

Jameis Winston (TB)

Winston might have the best receivers from top to bottom in the division. Think about it Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries all bring special skill sets and reliable hands. Cameron Brate is a great red zone guy and OJ Howard has great speed and hands for a tight end. Even the running backs have succeeded in pass catching. So no matter who is on the field Winston has plenty of reliable hands. The big question is can he get the ball the right set of hands on any given play? This is Winston’s 4th year in the league and with the weapons he has, if he cannot make the jump this year to 4,400 passing yards and 30 plus touchdowns then he may never and will forever be a high QB2 with potential to give you low QB1 numbers on occasion.

Note I originally wrote before the announced suspension. Obviously missing at least three games it could greatly hurt his chances of 4,400/30. In fact, now there is even a chance he gets cut, so this is truly a make or break season for him.

Matt Ryan (ATL)

By all accounts, Ryan did not have a typical year. I believe this had more to do with the change at offensive coordinator than most people would realize. Well, now we are in year two of the new system so I am expecting some better numbers out of Ryan this year. Mostly in the touchdown department. One of my favorite things about Matty Ice is that ever since he came into the league he has been about as consistent as a QB can be. I am sure many wish his baseline numbers were higher, but one cannot argue that he has been a rock for the Falcons at the quarterback position. I am not sure he will ever be a high-end QB1 but he should continue to be a mid-range QB2, which is what I am expecting from him this year.

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram (NO)

Did anyone in the NFL have a more productive season then Kamara did? I am not talking about total points here I am talking about points per touch. Just look at the numbers 120 carries 728 yards and eight touchdowns. 81 receptions 824 yards and 5 touchdowns. Let’s not forget he hardly played in the first three games of the season either. If you are in a PPR league Kamara has to be considered a top five overall running back, and with Mark Ingram facing a suspension to start the season, he could see a pretty heavy load to start. Not that I think he absorbs all of Ingram’s work, but it he certainly gets an uptick.

I think Ingram’s days are pretty numbered here. He is currently 28 years old and has had over 500 touches in the last two years. In all honesty, the suspension might go a long way in helping Ingram finish the season strong. His usage kind of dipped as the season went on, which can be attributed to Kamara as well, but we also have to consider he has logged a good amount of work over the years and he might have been getting a little tired by seasons end. He should still manage 180 carries and 50 receptions for the season, still making him a very viable RB2.

Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman (ATL)

Freeman’s number were down last year, but so was the entire Falcons offense. His attempts were down, his touchdowns were down and even is receptions were down. Many will point to the offensive coordinator as the problem, which I partially agree with, but another reason I think for the slight dip was the expanded use of Tevin Coleman. I think Falcons know that Freeman has a lot of miles in the last few years so reducing the load a little will help keep him healthy and fresh as a season wears on. I think we can expect numbers similar to last year for this year.

Coleman actually gets pretty close to the same amount of work that Freeman does. As a result, he is one of the most productive backup running backs in the league. The biggest difference is that Freeman just does things a little better than Coleman does, which is the reason why he is ahead of him. Because of the high use of Coleman, even being the backup, it makes him more valuable to some of the starting running backs on other teams.

Christian McCaffrey and C.J. Anderson (CAR)

McCaffrey did not have a great year rushing the ball and his slash of 117/435/2 reflects that. He did, however, have a terrific year catching the ball, 80/651/5. Word out of camp is that McCaffrey has spent a lot of time preparing to carry a much larger load in the running game this coming season. If he, in fact, does improve on his rushing numbers and can maintain his receiving numbers he can start making a case to be a top running back option for years to come.

I think Anderson is in Carolina for one reason, help absorb the void left by Jonathan Stewart. While I expect McCaffrey to pick up some of the load he can’t take all of 200 carries that Stewart would normally do. So enter Anderson. He is also there just in case McCaffrey can’t improve his running ability. So worse case for Anderson is 120 – 140 carries 500 to 600 yards and six or so touchdowns. Best case for him 180 – 200 carries, 800 plus yards and eight to ten touchdowns.

Ronald Jones + Peyton Barber + Charles Sims (TB)

The Buccaneers have perhaps the messiest backfield situation. Jones is the big name rookie brought in to do what Doug Martin failed to do consistently. I believe he will get a more than fair chance to earn the starting job and I assume he will easily win it. He might lose touches early on to Barber, but as the season goes Jones will become the man in Tampa. So obviously Barber might show some value early on, but as long as Jones gets better, Barber will slowly get squeezed out of playing time. That leaves Sims who’s only real contribution will be in the passing game. Even with how bad things were in Tampa last year in 15 games he was only handed the rock 21 times, but he did see 47 targets. So unless you are in a really deep PPR there is no reason to roster Sims at this point.

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones (ATL) + Michael Thomas (NO) + Mike Evans (TB)

Just draft them we all know they are great and established receivers.

Mohamed Sanu + Calvin Ridley (ATL)

Sanu actually produced a pretty solid season last, bringing in 67 catches for 703 yards and five touchdowns. That said he might be hard-pressed to repeat those kinds of numbers because of the addition of Calvin Ridley. Some experts were calling Ridley the most polished receiver in this year’s draft. While there may be no rush to lean on Ridley I am sure he will get his fair share of targets as a rookie. I think we are looking at a split for 140 or so targets between the two of them. Most likely a 60/40 split with 60 going to Sanu as he is the already established vet of the two.

Chris Godwin + DeSean Jackson + Adam Humphries (TB)

Godwin is a receiver I absolutely love. I believe he is primed for a big leap forward. Now I am not talking WR1 numbers but low WR2 or Flex numbers are not out of the question for me. Looking at his last four games last year he caught 16 passes for 295 yards and 1 touchdown. If you stretch that pace out over an entire season you are looking at 64 receptions 1,180 yards and four touchdowns. I will take that from my flex any day. Even if the yardage comes down some to like 900 yards that would still make him a top 30 WR. Of course, if Godwin sees an uptick that means some guys will likely go down. The first one to get downsized in my opinion will be Jackson. Always a health risk I see no reason why the Bucs would run him out play after play. They can lighten his load and perhaps get better production efficiency out of him. The other guy that loses some for me is Humphries. I don’t think he loses as much as Jackson, but he will go down some in order for Godwin to get his 30 extra receptions.

D.J. Moore + Devin Funchess + Torrey Smith + Curtis Samuel (CAR)

73/1,008/9 those were Kelvin Benjamin’s slash his rookie year. I bring that up because it’s looking very possible that the best WR in this group is rookie Moore. Not that is some sort of guarantee that Moore will succeed, but there have been great reviews of his work so far and come on look at what he is up against. Is it really a stretch to say he might be the WR1 going into week 1? He should be no worse than WR2 for sure. Either way I think best any wide receiver gives us is flex production. Some will say look at what Funchess did last year and it’s a valid response, but I would argue most of his numbers were out of necessity over ability. Also, let’s consider that he was the only WR to finish with more than 17 receptions yet only had 63 as his total. Actually, the WR I am most interested in is Smith. Truth be told I have never really liked him because I always thought he was one dimensional and I still do. But this is one of the few teams that his one dimension has succeeded on. Look back to 2015 when Ted Ginn was running that someone route that Smith runs. His slash was 44/739/10. Not saying Smith does the same but it could be similar and if you are in a really deep league Smith could be a guy you take a late chance on. I did in one of my 16 team leagues and I think he can be a steal even if the touchdowns are cut to like six. The wildcard of this group is Samuel, we really don’t know what his role will be or what he can even do. He played in eight games last year and did a little receiving, a little rushing, and a little returning. I have a feeling 2018 will be much of the same unless someone gets hurt.

Ted Ginn + Cameron Meredith + Tre’Quan Smith (NO)

After Thomas, I am not sure I am too interested in a Saints wide receiver. Ginn could repeat similar numbers this year, but with the addition of Meredith and the drafting of Smith, there is much better competition behind Ginn this year than last year. No matter how you slice it though Thomas will be the clear cut number one with Kamara getting the second most targets. Ingram was third in receptions last year and even with missing four games he should still be right up there again. Leaving right around another 100 receptions for the remaining receiver to fight for. If Meredith returns to the same form he in Chicago two years ago that could really hurt Ginn and limit rookie Smith’s production this year. Either way in redraft formats I am probably not looking at the Saints for WR help after Thomas.

Tight Ends

Greg Olsen (CAR)

Tight ends are for sure the worst position for fantasy players in the NFC South. The only tight end I would strongly consider is Olsen. He is Cam Newton’s go-to guy. From 2012 to 2016 he caught between 69 and 84 passes. In 2017 he missed most of the year with injury. So when healthy Olsen is as reliable as they come. So if he is, in fact, healthy going into the season you should get top five production from Olsen.

Cameron Brate + O.J. Howard (TB)

Brate is another tight end I would consider, but he has a few negatives to go with him. First, he is not a high volume reception guy. He is usually a high touchdown guy which I tend to avoid because if he does not get the TDs, the lack of receptions really hurts on the scoreboard. Another reason why I am not thrilled with Brate is his fellow tight end, Howard. Howard brings a different skill set to the table which actually goes a long way in hurting both guys overall production. As long as both tight ends are playing they will continue to limit each others value. So the bottom line for me is both of these guys are high TE2 at best but will give you enough games as TE3 that it could cost you some wins. Combined they had 11 games where they scored less than three points in PPR. That is too many games of poor production for my liking.

Austin Hooper (ATL)

After four seasons in Philly, playing behind Zach Ertz for the majority of it, Burton will finally get his shot at the No. 1 tight end for his new team the Bears. In his one start in 2017 in place of an injured Ertz, Burton posted 5 receptions for 71 yards and two TDs. His five TDs on the season was the 10th most in the league, and with the exception of O.J. Howard, all of them were their respective teams No. 1 tight end — led by Jimmy Graham‘s 10.

His upside will depend on how well he and second-year QB Mitch Trubisky gel in camp, but if you’re looking for a low-end TE1 with upside to be Top 5, Burton is that guy.

Josh Hill + Benjamin Watson (NO)

For the last two years, the tight end position has been pretty worthless in terms of fantasy production. I am not expecting this year to be much better. Let’s talk Hill first — he has never had more than 16 receptions in a single season so that is a big no for him. Now, are left with Watson. Despite being 35 years old Watson managed 61 receptions for 522 yards and four touchdowns on a Ravens team that was depleted on offense. But there is hope. Two years ago Watson was on the Saints and he posted a slash of 74/825/6. That might be a stretch, but he should do at least as good as he did last year and Baltimore, which was good enough to be a low-end TE1. Its a gamble though because he is 37 years old going into this season. I view Watson as a tight end I gamble on if I do not land a top tight end early in the draft.

Recap

The NFC South has a ton of top-notch quarterback and wide receiver talent. If not for Winston’s suspension all four quarterback could be in the top 15. Wide receivers have Jones, Thomas and Evans all have the ability to be top five at their position. Even after those top three, there are still at least eight or ten more receivers worth drafting in this division. The running back position has solid players as well. Guys like Freeman and Kamara who are capable of RB1 numbers and guys like Coleman, Ingram, McCaffrey, and Anderson who can all reach RB2 numbers. In a 12 man or less league, the only tight end I am drafting from this division is Olsen all other require really deep rosters or tight end premium scoring. So the division that produced three double-digit winning teams also produced some of the best fantasy scoring players and I expect much of the same this coming year out of the NFC South.

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