2018 Fantasy Football: Too Damn High Josh Gordon
This one really puzzles me. Josh Gordon has not had a wide receiver one type game since 2013. That’s right five years ago. Over the last four season he has played in 10 games out of a possible 64, and in those 10 games, he has 42 receptions on 89 targets, less than 50% catch rate, for 638 yards and one touchdown. Basically averaging four receptions for 64 yards per game. That is 10.4 ppr points per game, which would have been good enough to be the 45th best wide receiver. Yet somehow he is getting ranked as high as 11 on Fantasy Pros. Even in drafts, I have seen him go in as early as the third round and ahead of some legit wide receiver one players. The lowest ranking is 49 so there is a lot of variance to what people think about him and with my 39th rank, I am certainly with the lower side of this. His composite is 23rd so on average people see him as a low wide receiver two.
For justification, people will point to his incredible 2013 season of 87/1646/9. But I counter that with a 2016 season by Terrelle Pryor where he posted 77/1007/4. I know its not as good, but the point being when you are the only option you are fed the ball and your numbers spike. We all know what happened to Pryor when he went to a more balanced team, he started to struggle. In 2013 Gordon’s fellow starting WR was Greg Little, meaning Gordon was by far the best receiver on the team and the ball was fed to him causing a spike in his numbers. Fast forward to 2018 Gordon is now competing for passes with Jarvis Landry a legit wide receiver one, David Njoku a promising super athletic tight end, and Duke Johnson one of the leagues best pass-catching running backs, who is so good he actually played some wide receiver last year. So at best Gordon is looking at fourth in the passing order. Possibly making matters worse is if Tyrod Taylor starts at quarterback it really hurts Gordon’s numbers. Taylor loves to throw the ball short and avoid turnovers, so who do you think he targets more? The short route expert in Landry, the big athletic tight end Njoku, perhaps the best route running, running back in Duke, or the speedy deep ball guy? My money is not on Gordon. Now if Baker Mayfield wins the job I would consider a slight bump in Gordon’s value because Baker will throw deep on occasion, but it won’t be nearly enough to move Gordon into wide receiver two territory.
While Gordon is a talented wide receiver, I think we are looking at more of a Ted Ginn role for him. Around 50 to 60 receptions for 650 to 800 yards and four to six touchdowns. The more Tyrod plays quarterback to closer Gordon is to the lower numbers and more Baker plays the closer Gordon gets to the higher numbers. If he falls in the range of those numbers that would place him right around 35th among wide receivers. Making him a low wide receiver three or flex play in most leagues. The bonus with him would be he has a shot at a monster game here or there but as a wide receiver one or even two that is not good enough to count on. So at is current ADP, let someone else take him and deal with all the highs and lows of owning him this year.
Projection: 55/725/5
WR Rank: 36th
Overall ADP: 80
Pick: Mid 6th
If you are struggling with your draft you can hit me up in my Facebook group Dynasty League Problems or on twitter @MikeKelleyDLP
Michael Kelley is a member of the Going For 2 team. You can check out his website Dynasty League Problems for more writings or find him on Twitter @mikekelleydlp spreading fantasy knowledge for the masses.
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