2018 Fantasy Football Week 3 Buy Low/Sell High #FantasyFootball

Buy Low

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Quarterback

Jimmy Garoppolo – In week 1, Garoppolo faced the Vikings in Minnesota. The matchup was extremely tough and he struggled to produce, scoring nine fantasy points. In week 2, he was without his top target, Marquise Goodwin, and the 49ers took a large lead early in the game, limiting throwing necessity. I’m not concerned about Garoppolo, and still value him as a low-end QB1. The 49ers play Kansas City next week, and I expect his price to rise after the game. Kansas City is allowing 34 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs through two weeks. I’m buying Garoppolo this week, before he posts a quality score in week 3.

Also buy: Deshaun Watson

Running Back

David Johnson – There has been a ton of negativity surrounding the Cardinals this week after they were shut out by the Rams. There’s been a lack of creativity in the Cardinals play calling, and I’m genuinely concerned as Johnson is not seeing the receiving work he’s used to. Chase Edmonds is playing significantly more than we expected, and the Cardinals offense looks terrible. At the same time, we know how talented Johnson is, so it just takes a scheme change (and maybe a quarterback change) to put him in the RB1 category again. If I can buy Johnson for an RB2 price, I’m pulling the trigger and hoping the Cardinals can respond to their pitiful start.

Also buy: Austin Ekeler, Ronald Jones, Aaron Jones

Wide Receiver

Demaryius Thomas – Emmanuel Sanders was the story in week 1, but Thomas saw 10 targets in the first week. Sanders outscored Thomas again in week 2, but Thomas had 11 targets. Thomas recorded only 18 receiving yards on those 11 opportunities, creating a buy low opportunity. Thomas leads the team in air yards (airyards.com), yet has not had the success of Sanders through two weeks. Thomas remains a quality WR2 in PPR leagues and is someone you can add for a WR3 price right now.

Also buy: Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr., Corey Davis, Robby Anderson

Tight End

George Kittle, David Njoku, Jack Doyle – Tight end seems like a position with multiple buys right now. George Kittle had a disappointing game in week 2, but remains a top 10 tight end this season. He has 144 air yards through two weeks, ranking fifth among tight ends. David Njoku has seen 14 targets in two games but has only come up with 10.3 PPR points. With the amount of attention Tyrod Taylor gave to Charles Clay in his time with Buffalo, I think Njoku is worth a look as a high-upside TE2. Jack Doyle also stands out as a guy who should be locked into the TE1 conversation all season. Doyle’s 15 targets rank fourth among tight ends this season, but Eric Ebron’s touchdowns have opened the window to buy Doyle.

Sell High

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Quarterback

Ryan Fitzpatrick – Right now, you probably can convince yourself (or others) that Fitzpatrick will be the Buccaneers quarterback even when Jameis Winston returns. Even if you believe that’s true, sell high on Fitzpatrick. His production is unsustainable. For starters, he has a touchdown rate of 13.1%. Sustained for a full season, that would be the second highest rate in NFL history behind Sid Luckman in 1943. It would shatter Peyton Manning’s mark of 9.9% in his record-breaking 2004 season. Fitzpatrick is also on pace for 6,552 passing yards. While this is likely the most talented group of receivers he’s played with, Fitzpatrick’s career TD% is 4.4% and his career best in passing yards is 3,905. If anyone is willing to give you QB1 or high QB2 value for Fitzpatrick, make the trade.

Also sell: Patrick Mahomes – Even though he’s a sell high, he’s not a sell. I believe Mahomes can finish as a top 5 QB this season so I’m not actively shopping Mahomes for other QBs, but quarterbacks are replaceable. If someone offers me a stud RB or WR, I’ll gladly send Mahomes and stream my QBs for the rest of the season. So while I’m selling high, I firmly believe in Mahomes as a top five QB this year.

Wide Receiver

Golden Tate, Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones – The Lions have a high-volume passing attack, and it’s possible all three of the Lions receivers finish the year as WR1s or WR2s. My issue with the Lions pass catchers is it will be difficult to predict which of the three receivers will be “the guy” in any given week. Additionally, the Lions have fallen behind in each game this season, adding volume to an already high-volume passing game. Golden Tate has 28 targets, Kenny Golladay has 21, and Marvin Jones has 17. Target share looks like this: Tate 28%, Golladay 21%, and Jones 17%. Stafford averaged 35 passing attempts per game last season, significantly lower than his 49.5 attempts per game this season. If we apply 35 passing attempts per game to the WRs target numbers, we should expect roughly 10 targets/game for Tate, 7.5 for Golladay, and 6 for Jones. Obviously the target share data is only a two game sample and can easily change, but the point is, in a typical week, the volume numbers for these receiver should be lower than they have been through the first two weeks. All three receivers are sell-high options for me, especially with the difficulty we’ll have predicting which player will have a spike week.

Also sell: DeSean Jackson – Jackson has caught all nine of his targets this season. He’s also caught a 50+ yard touchdown in each game. The deep ball is certainly Jackson’s strength, but like I said last week, there are too many mouths to feed in Tampa Bay, and I still prefer Chris Godwin over Jackson. With two great games in a row, selling Jackson just got easier.

Tight End

Tight end sell-highs are almost always driven by touchdowns. Fantasy players check final fantasy points but don’t look into how the players achieved those points as much as they should. For that reason, it’s very easy to trade tight ends who have recently scored touchdowns for target-heavy tight ends who have not scored in the last few games.

Jesse James, O.J. Howard, Austin Hooper, Eric Ebron, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins are all low-volume tight ends who have scored recently. While not many of them are on standard-league rosters, all of them are worth selling if you own them.

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