2018 Fantasy Football Week 2 Preview

Week 1 is in the books and we have our sights set on week 2!  There were a few surprises, like the New Orleans defense getting lit up, but a lot of the chalk plays performed like we thought.  I am notoriously horrible in week 2 of the NFL season, but I am going to trust my process and hope for the best.  So, here are my favorite week 2 matchups and ones I am avoiding!

 

Chiefs at Steelers

I faded Tyreek in most of my DFS lineups and got burned for it.  He is the ultimate big play threat and I need to start respecting him as such.  The Chiefs defense is exactly what we thought they were, though.  Exploitable.

 

Favorite Matchups

If last week was any indication, this game is going to be a shootout.  Therefore I am stacking a lot of assets in this game.  I think Big Ben is a great play because this game is at home and the ball should move easily on both sides.  Antonio Brown should be the top overall receiver as per usual, but I think he will put up the most ridiculous numbers in this one.  I’m firing up JuJu and James Conner as well.

Chiefs are in a similar situation.  Despite the terrible weather, the Browns still moved the ball well on the Steelers last week.  Mahomes and Hill could be a solid stack, but I don’t think we’ll see as many cheap goal line flip passes.  If Hill doesn’t have that punt return touchdown or if the Chiefs just ran it in at the goal line, his day looks much different.  That is why I am in on Kareem Hunt this game.  He should face lighter boxes after what Hill did last week.  And if he gets the goal line touches like I think he will, he’ll be a great play.

 

Matchups to Avoid

Not much to avoid in this game except maybe Kelce.  He was barely looked at last week and had a crucial drop in the red zone.  The Steelers were the best defense against tight ends last year and they continued that by limiting Njoku to a 42 percent catch rate last week.  Start him if you have to, but I’m off of him this week.

 

Dolphins at Jets

Sam Darnold started his career with the definition of a rookie mistake:  Rolling to the right and thinking you have the arm strength to sling it all the way across the field only to get intercepted for a touchdown.  He responded in a massive way, complete 75 percent of his next 20 passes for two touchdowns.  Unreal.

 

Favorite Matchups

While the Jets defense looked great, they still ceded over 100 yards to Kenny Golladay.  I think the other Kenny (Stills) is in play here after torching the solid Titans secondary.  On the Jets side, I am in love with Enunwa.  He had a massive 10 targets and used his solid frame and athleticism to gain yards after the catch, including driving a touchdown in.  His skill set is a perfect complement to a rookie quarterback that methodically executes his drives rather than just slinging deep shots.

 

Matchups to Avoid

Ryan Tannehill threw two picks last week and the Jets just forced 5.  I’d be willing to put money on him throwing at least one.  He also didn’t flash any of his pre-ACL rushing ability, so he really doesn’t provide much of a floor.

The Dolphins running back situation is also a mess.  14 carries for Drake and 9 for Gore puts this squarely in a committee against a defense that shut down the Lions run game.  I’m fading.

 

Eagles at Buccaneers

Do you believe in Fitzmagic?  Because I don’t.  The Saints routinely get torched in the opening weeks of the season before shoring up their defense.  I think this was them not game planning for downfield throws and getting burned by it.

 

Favorite Matchups

The Eagles receivers should dominate this game.  I think last week’s low average depth of target for Agholor was a product of the defense they were playing.  And Mike Wallace was targeted deep, but just couldn’t get free from the speedy Falcons secondary.  They should be able to exploit the Bucs secondary, especially with Vernon Hargreaves going on IR.  They are pretty much down to their practice squad corners.

If DeSean Jackson doesn’t suit up, I love Chris Godwin.  He scored last week and he performed well in his starts last season.

 

Matchups to Avoid

No, I want no part of Ryan Fitzpatrick.  The Eagles are a better defense overall than the Saints.  I think they’ll limit the deep passes to receivers and they’ll have to settle for lots of screens and RB passes.  But this new offense under Todd Munken seems like the real deal.  He is opening up the aggressive, downfield throws that will fit perfectly with Jameis Winston’s gunslinger mentality when he gets back.

I’m also off Peyton Barber this week.  He got no passing game work and was off the field for two-minute drills and third downs.  The Eagles front is a lot more intimidating than the Saints as well.

I’m not targeting any Eagles running back with the snap counts being so evenly split.  They claim they want Ajayi to be their workhorse, but they said that in the summer too and he got 15 carries and no targets in week 1.  I’m avoiding until I see a more definitive workload for him.

 

Browns at Saints

Are we back to shootout Saints?  As an avid Saints fan, I don’t like it.  As a fantasy football player, I LOVE IT.  More scoring means more fun.

 

Favorite Matchups

Just like last week, I’m firing up all my Saints.  Kamara is my top overall player again after seeing his passing game involvement.  While it was only seven carries, he accounted for over half of the Saints running back rushes.  I expect them to be able to run more in this game after James Conner racked up 35 touches on the Browns.

I like Michael Thomas, but he could see shadow coverage from Denzel Ward, who grabbed two picks last week.  I’m sure the Saints will move him around the formation enough to get easier coverages.

Ben Watson is a sneaky play for me.  I find it hilarious that the Browns line up their safety offscreen on every single play.  This is one of the main reasons that they were a tight end funnel all last season.

I wouldn’t mind playing either of the Browns receivers.  Jarvis Landry was the target hog receiver that we have come to know, but many of his targets were downfield.  Landry actually led all receivers in air yards in week 1, per PFF.  He actually performed horribly on these, hauling in less than 50 percent of his targets.  I think Josh Gordon will be stepping into a bigger role and will be the obvious downfield play.

Njoku is also terrific.  He finished second on the team in targets and is only $3000 on DK this week.  Gimme.

 

Matchups to Avoid

Not too many people you want to avoid here, but if I had to throw someone out, it would be Carlos Hyde.  He was largely inefficient last week, didn’t get any work in the passing game, and the Browns should be behind.  He is one of the game flow dependent grinders and I don’t see game flow favoring the Browns (I said the same thing last week and was wrong).

 

Colts at Redskins

We finally saw a healthy Andrew Luck and the Colts didn’t hold him back last week, ripping the ball over 50 times.  While most of it was within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage, I think he just needs to rebuild the confidence that he had pre-injury.

 

Favorite Matchups

I like Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson in this game.  Peterson racked up the touches last week after getting out ahead of the Cardinals and the Redskins are favored in this game.  I see game flow favoring Peterson.  Thompson was also highly efficient on his touches just like last season.  The Colts start two rookies at linebacker and they struggled in pass coverage against Joe Mixon last week, so Thompson should feast on them.

The Colts weakness at linebacker should also favor Jordan Reed, who is finally healthy and looked solid last week.

 

Matchups to Avoid

Andrew Luck is going to have a much tougher matchup this week.  The Redskins had the ninth-most interceptions and gave up the ninth-fewest passing yards last year.  They are also fresh off a game where they shut down the entire Cardinals passing offense.

T.Y. Hilton will be facing some stiff competition too.  He’ll either be facing Josh Norman on the outside or athletic freak Fabian Moreau in the slot.  Moreau only allowed 12 yards on his five targets last week, per Player Profiler.

 

Chargers at Bills

The Chargers defense was shockingly bad without Joey Bosa on the field.  While their performance didn’t inspire much confidence, I am back on them for this week.  The Bills don’t have any playmakers with the explosiveness of Tyreek Hill, and Josh Allen will be getting his first start.

 

Favorite Matchups

Melvin Gordon showed us that he is absolutely game flow proof.  Not only did he get 16 carries, but he grabbed nine balls for 102 yards.  Austin Ekeler made some plays, but it is clear that the Chargers were serious when they said they wanted to get Gordon more involved in the passing game.  He should get more carries in this game and be in better scoring positions.

Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen are also in play here after the Bills made Joe Flacco look elite again.  Rivers’ receivers dropped some of the most crucial passes in the game, but he still threw for 400 yards and three touchdowns.  If his receiver core fixes their hands, he’ll be in for another massive game.

LeSean McCoy still has an awful line, questionable quarterback play, and loaded boxes, but he’ll see a solid workload against a team without its best defender.  The Chargers gave up the second most rushing yards in 2017 and the Bills will have to use their best player if they want to keep this game competitive and take pressure off of Josh Allen.  I’m starting him with wavering confidence.

 

Matchups to Avoid

I really hope you don’t need me to put Josh Allen and the Bills passing game here for you.

 

Vikings at Packers

Aaron Rodgers showed us why he is the best quarterback in the NFL, dropping dimes on one leg orchestrating a 20 point comeback against a fierce Bears defense.  I was in awe at that game, but I am very concerned for his future.

 

Favorite Matchups

The Packers allowed the Bears running backs to move the ball reasonably well throughout the game on the ground and through the air.  After seeing Dalvin Cook grab six balls, I have confidence that he’ll have the workload to make an impact in this one.

In his last three games against the Packers, Stefon Diggs has caught 18 balls for 271 yards and three touchdowns.  I think he’ll torch them again in this one.

 

Matchups to Avoid

With Rodgers not fully healthy, I could see the Packers going a little more run-oriented and executing shorter passes to keep Rodgers from taking unnecessary hits on his legs.  The Vikings have very few holes in their defense, so this one could be a slow, grinder game.

I am not very confident in Jimmy Graham in this one.  I thought he would see better usage last week, but Rodgers just didn’t look his way much.  Now he’ll be manned up with Harrison Smith, and I don’t like those odds.

Kyle Rudolph only had one catch, but it so happened to be a touchdown.  The Packers held Trey Burton to a single catch for 15 yards last week, so I could see Rudolph being limited as well.

 

Panthers at Falcons

I think this is the week 2 shootout we should all be targeting.  The Falcons just lost Keanu Neal and Deion Jones for the year, so their entire defensive strategy will be compromised.  I think they’ll get shredded by running backs for the rest of the season with those players gone.

 

Favorite Matchups

Christian McCaffrey saw the usage we were expecting last week but just couldn’t convert.  He did get some goal-line work and saw targets, but he should be in line for even more volume with Greg Olsen out.  The Falcons already gave up the most receptions to running backs last year, but now they will lose all of their speed on defense.  McCaffrey will rack up yards after the catch and be used like a workhorse.

Devin Funchess was also a stud in Olsen’s absence last year.  He and Cam weren’t quite on the same page, but the increased volume and red zone opportunity should be enough to make him a good play.

I think this is a great bounce-back spot for Matt Ryan too.  Their defense will be giving up points and the offense will have to play catchup.  The Falcons have also had three extra days to game plan for this one, so I’m hoping they can fix their red zone issues.

Tevin Coleman might be stepping into a big role if Freeman can’t go.  And even if he does suit up, I think Freeman’s explosiveness will be compromised and Coleman will out-touch him.

Also, start Julio.

 

Matchups to Avoid

If you are searching for someone to play in Olsen’s absence, I’m staying away from Ian Thomas.  Rookie tight ends rarely fire and there are plenty of other options for Cam to throw to.

 

Texans at Titans

The Titans and the Texans looked absolutely brutal last week.  Both offenses had so much hype surrounding them in the summer and they severely flopped to start the season.  I am hoping for bounce backs from both of them, but I won’t hold my breath.

 

Favorite Matchups

DeAndre Hopkins is the ultimate bounce-back candidate for this week.  He routinely struggles against the Patriots, so I didn’t expect much last week.  Now he’s taking on the Titans secondary that just got shredded by Kenny Stills.  He’s in my top 3 of receivers this week.

I’m really hoping that Deshaun Watson has a good game too.  I believe in regression, but I also believe in small sample sizes.  There is no way that Watson could swing that high and then actually be as bad as we saw last week.  I think he torches the Titans and shows us what he showed last year.

Jonnu Smith could be in play here after the Texans gave up a big game to Gronk.  Smith is a great athlete and a good receiver, but I would temper expectations based on Mariota’s health.

 

Matchups to Avoid

This one comes down to Marcus Mariota’s health, even though he hasn’t done much to inspire confidence.  The Texans have a good pass rush and new ball-hawk safety Tyrann Mathieu already picked off Brady last week.  I’m avoiding even if Mariota’s elbow is healthy.

The Texans running back situation is murky to me.  I’m not sure why they insist on giving Alfred Blue the goal line touches.  Lamar Miller looked good on his carries, but until he gets the red zone touches it is hard to trust him in fantasy.

 

Cardinals at Rams

The Cardinals are in trouble.  Bruce Arians was a great offensive mind that featured deep receiving shots that freed up underneath receivers like David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald.  The new regime isn’t even using DJ like a receiver.  And the Rams looked as good as advertised.

 

Favorite Matchups

I like Cooper Kupp in this one.  The Rams will move the ball with ease and Kupp has been the Rams most targeted red zone receiver since last season.  I expect plenty of opportunities and a touchdown in this one.

Gurley is obviously a top play here, as the Cardinals got abused by old man Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson.  Gurley is basically a combo of young Peterson and Thompson in his prime.  Expect positive game script and plenty of rushing attempts.

I also have to roll David Johnson out in this one too.  The Raiders made an effort to target their backs and tight ends to avoid the Rams corners and safeties.  The Cardinals should do the same, so DJ will be solid and maybe even Ricky Seals-Jones could be sneaky in this one.  He did receive at 15 percent target share in week 1.

 

Matchups to Avoid

Larry Fitzgerald will have a tough matchup no matter where he lines up.  Marcus Peters and Aquib Talib on the outside, Nickel Robey-Coleman on the inside.  Target volume could negate that, but I can’t see him doing much in this one.

For obvious reasons, Sam Bradford is just untouchable.  They need to get Rosen in there as soon as possible.

 

Lions at 49ers

Boy did the Lions look bad.  Like every season since the “Reggie Bush Golden Days”, the Lions could not move the ball on the ground at all.  The 49ers didn’t look much better, so maybe this game will be a good “get right” matchup for these teams.

 

Favorite Matchups

Jimmy Garoppolo was robbed from a better box score last week with a big George Kittle drop.  The actually moved the ball well for much of the game, but just couldn’t score when they needed it.  Sam Darnold just looked fantastic (after the initial pick-six, of course) and I’m certain that Jimmy G can do the same.

Kittle should be in a great spot too after last week.  He was targeted heavily against a solid Vikings defense, and now the Lions present a much softer matchup.  Marquise Goodwin might be out and Darius Slay would be locking up Pierre Garcon, so Garoppolo will likely be looking to his tight end early and often.

I could see this as a bounce-back game for Alfred Morris as well.  Although he choked one of them, he did receive the goal line carries for the 49ers.  I think he’ll have much more running room and the volume was there last week too.  I’m giving him another chance.

 

Matchups to Avoid

I love Marvin Jones as a player, but Kenny Golladay is the real deal.  This team goes three-wide for most of their snaps, so Jones will still see plenty of routes and snaps, but it’s hard to rely on him when there is a bigger clone of him running the same route tree.

Pierre Garcon will be up against Darius Slay in this one, so I’m looking elsewhere.  Slay is the only respectable defender on the Lions, so I doubt his coverage will be tested much.

 

Raiders at Broncos

You know what the Raiders need?  Pass rush.  I think they should trade two first-rounders to get a stud like Khalil Mack.

 

Favorite Matchups

Jared Cook just set a Raiders record with 180 receiving yards in a game.  Like that actually happened last week.  Now he gets the Broncos who just gave up 100 yards and a score to Will Dissly (who?).  I think Cook will be a big part of the game plan again.

The Raiders also have a laughable secondary and no pass rush.  I’m confidently starting Case Keenum, Emmanuel Sanders, and Demaryius Thomas.

 

Matchups to Avoid

Amari Cooper ran over 40 percent of his routes from the slot, something that we all wanted to see in the offseason.  But he was only targeted three times, something that we all did not want to see.  He’ll be squaring off against Chris Harris for most of the game, so Gruden probably won’t include him in the game plan for whatever reason.

Full disclosure: I’ve trashed him every part of his career, but Derek Carr literally folds under pressure like a cheap suit.  And even when he’s not pressured he is throwing picks for absolutely no reason.  It’s amazing how this guy was an MVP candidate a few years ago.  He’ll be running for his life from Von Miller and the Broncos pass rush.  Nope, not even remotely interested.

 

Patriots at Jaguars

These teams are who we thought they were.  Jaguars are a “run-first, lean on their defense” type of team.  Patriots are a “let Tom drop back and shred everyone” type of team.

 

Favorite Matchups

Jalen Ramsey might man up on Rob Gronkowski again, but the last matchup can be thrown out because of Gronk’s early exit due to a concussion.  I don’t think anyone in the NFL can handle Gronk on his best day, and he looks dominant already.  I’m loving him this week.

Chris Hogan was entirely phased out of the game plan last week, but if Ramsey is going on Gronk, he’ll have a much softer matchup.  I expect him to see plenty of intermediate targets from Brady in this one.

If Leonard Fournette’s hammy holds up, I like his matchup here.  Lamar Miller went over the century mark last week and Alfred Blue converted his goal line carry.  I could see Fournette having a big game, and T.J. Yeldon is an easy pivot if he’s not healthy.

 

Matchups to Avoid

James White was heavily involved last week, but the Texans don’t have the most athletic linebackers.  The Jags have Telvin Smith and Myles Jack, arguably the most athletic linebackers.  I think they’ll limit White’s yards after the catch no matter how much he is targeted.

The Pats defense shut down everyone’s favorite small sample QB last week.  We have a massive sample of Blake Bortles being a bad quarterback.  I’m concerned about him and the entire passing game.

 

Giants at Cowboys

I’m excited about this matchup, as it is entirely different from what we’ve seen in the past.  The Giants have an explosive running game for once, and the Cowboys have absolutely no receiving threats.

 

Favorite Matchups

This should be a game where the Giants try to exploit the Cowboys linebackers in coverage due to their lack of lateral agility.  Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram should see plenty of work through the passing game.

Odell just showed us all that this was his year.  He grabbed 11 balls for 111 yards in his toughest matchup of the year, and it should have been a bigger game.  Eli missed him wide open in the end zone because he bobbled the snap and panicked.  Beckham is matchup proof.

Despite the awful game planning and play calling, Ezekiel Elliott still put together a solid outing last week.  He is the engine of their offense and will need to get leaned on.

 

Matchups to Avoid

Dak Prescott has continued to disappoint.  His offensive line is struggling and he has no weapons in the passing game.  It is hard to put it all on him, as I think it is the front office and the offensive coordinator that are betraying him.  Either way, you can’t rely on him in fantasy.  There are also literally no receivers you can play in this one either.  Cole Beasley could have one of those four-catch games with two of them being touchdowns, but are you really going to trust that?

 

Seahawks at Bears

Russell Wilson is a magician.  He takes six sacks, throws a couple of picks, loses his star wide receiver, and still manages to put up 20 fantasy points.  I don’t know how long he can be the one-man show, but he’s holding up so far.

 

Favorite Matchups

After Doug Baldwin went out, Tyler Lockett went into the slot for a majority of the snaps.  He’ll likely operate out of there against the Bears, who just gave up a monster game to Randall Cobb.  He’s a fantastic play for me.

Taylor Gabriel just saw five targets for five catches.  While he didn’t do it last week, he could easily break a big play at any moment with his speed.  With that much opportunity, I wouldn’t mind taking a shot on him (say, if you’re down by 30 because of A.J. Green).

Jordan Howard also put his passing game nightmares to rest with a 100 percent catch rate on five targets.  Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman just put together solid outings, so I’m starting Howard with confidence.

 

Matchups to Avoid

Will Dissly was probably the top pick up for many people with two tight ends going down, but he is completely off my radar.  He was air dropped out of nowhere and received 90 percent of his production in the first quarter.  The Bears just shut down Jimmy Graham, and I doubt Dissly is a better bet for fantasy points than he was.

Russell Wilson will probably work his magic, but this Bears team should be feared.  The Seahawks line didn’t provide any protection and Khalil Mack just had a sack and a pick-six.  I think he’ll dominate this week.

 

And that’s all for this week!  Thank you to everyone for reading and thank you for the Twitter interactions last week!  I am really enjoying writing these previews, as it gives me a better perspective for DFS and my seasonal leagues by looking at all these game in a different light.  See you guys next week!

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