2018 Fantasy Football Week 4 Buy Low/Sell High #FantasyFootball

Buy Low

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Quarterback

Carson Wentz – Wentz didn’t post a great fantasy score on Sunday, but he escaped without injury and was able to move effectively throughout the game. Wentz lacks weapons in the offense right now, but Jay Ajayi, Darren Sproles, and Alshon Jeffery look close to returning. It was also nice to see Dallas Goedert get involved as well, bringing another weapon to the offense. I saw enough encouraging signs in the game to expect Wentz to quickly return to QB1 status, especially as the Eagles offense returns to health.

Also buy: Tom Brady

Running Back

Sony Michel – If you watched the Sunday Night game, the Patriots were uninspiring. Michel was uninspiring too, touching the ball 15 times for just 49 yards. It wasn’t the best fantasy performance from Michel, but the good news is, the Patriots used him throughout the game, even considering they played from behind. Rex Burkhead left the game early, and his status in in question for Week 4. James White’s role should remain the same, so it seems likely Michel will have the Dion Lewis role from a year ago making him a highly valuable fantasy asset.

Also buy: Aaron Jones, Kenyan Drake

Wide Receiver

Corey Davis – I wrote up Corey Davis earlier this season as a buy low, but he’s an even bigger buy now. He’s taken on the Jacksonville defense already, and has battled with poor quarterback play including injuries to his starting quarterbacks in multiple games. I’m buying Davis due to volume. He ranks 7^th in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR). This stat basically combines a player’s share of targets as well as the player’s share of air yards giving us a better idea of volume rather than just referencing targets. The six player above Davis this season in WOPR all have at least 49.8 PPR points with the exception of Antonio Brown who has 40 through two games. Davis has just 28.9 PPR points this season. He’s my favorite buy low at any position this week, and I now own Davis in 100% of my dynasty leagues.

Also buy: Allen Robinson

Tight End

David Njoku – Njoku has three straight weeks of disappointing fantasy scores, but I’m buying if I need help at tight end. Most tight ends need touchdowns to be relevant in fantasy, and Njoku is no different. With Baker Mayfield starting, I expect the Browns offense to be much better. With an improved offense, more Browns drives will end up in the red zone, making it more likely Njoku scores. He’s a fantastic athlete, and even if he needs to refine his football skills, more opportunity in the red zone should allow the athleticism shine, hopefully turning into fantasy results.

Sell High

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Quarterback

Matt Ryan – After scoring two rushing touchdowns in week two, Ryan threw for five touchdowns in week three. Week two was an outlier as Ryan hadn’t had a rushing score since 2013, and hasn’t had more than two rushing TDs in any season in his career. Week three was also an outlier as Ryan threw for five touchdowns. Before Sunday, Ryan had never thrown five touchdown passes in a regular season game in his career. In 2017, Ryan threw 2 or fewer TDs in every single game, finishing the season with just 20 touchdown passes.  He has more weapons this season, but I’m not buying Ryan as a QB1. I’ll sell Ryan and keep him locked into the high-end QB2 range in my rankings.

Running Back

Chris Carson – Carson carried the ball 32 carries for 102 yards and a touchdown in week three. He experienced a positive game script for most of the game, giving him the volume, but he ran for just 3.2 yards per carry. He caught two passes this week, but doesn’t project to be heavily involved in the passing game this year. You can sell Carson based on the good week three result, and the fact that he separated himself from Rashad Penny (3 carries, 5 rushing yards). I’m selling Carson, because he’s game script dependent, and I expect some negative games scripts after the Seahawks’ week seven bye. From weeks 8-16, there is a legitimate chance the Seahawks lose seven of those nine games. You could make the case to wait a few weeks to sell, but I’ll try to get what I can for him now, rather than taking a risk that he strings together some more good games before the bye week.

Wide Receiver

Jordy Nelson – Nelson exploded for six catchers, 172 yards and a touchdown. After two tough weeks, he finally returned some value for his owners. However, I’m not buying the breakout for Nelson. In this game, Amari Cooper was shadowed by Xavien Howard. When shadowed, Cooper caught just one pass for eight yards according to Pro Football Focus’s Jeff Ratcliff. With Howard on Cooper, Derek Carr was able to get the ball to Nelson more often than in the previous two games. I currently view Nelson as a spike week WR4/5. You can’t get much for him, but trading him for a solid WR3/4 would be worth it.

Also sell: Tyler Boyd

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