2019 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Aaron Jones
RB Aaron Jones (Green Bay Packers) | 3rd Year
2018 Stats: 133 carries for 728 yards, 8 TD; 26 receptions for 206 yards, 1 TD
Jones averaged 5.5 yards per carry as a rookie in 2017, then did the same last year. But he’s also missed four games each season, with last year’s coming at the beginning (suspension) and the end (knee) of the season.
Jones had double-digit carries in seven straight games after Green Bay’s Week 7 bye, with 97 carries for 532 yards (5.5 yards per carry), 22 receptions for 165 yards and eight total touchdowns (seven rushing) over that span. Not surprisingly, he was RB5 in standard leagues and full-point PPR over that span.
Jones fit the “best shape of his life” narrative this offseason, as he reportedly showed up at OTAs with 5.3 percent body fat. Time will tell if that’s meaningful on the field.
New Packers head coach Matt LaFleur pointed to getting running backs more involved in the passing game. Jamaal Williams actually had one more catch than Jones last year (27), so it’s worth wondering how that work will be divided.
Projecting Jones’ stellar seven-game stretch from 2018 over 16 games, you arrive at 222 carries for 1,216 yards and 16 touchdowns along with 50 catches for 377 yards and two more scores. His scoring area usage also naturally spiked over that time, with multiple red zone carries in five of those seven games (13 total, six inside the 10-yard line).
Current ADP data shows fantasy owners aren’t quite ready to fully buy into Jones. Via Fantasy Football Calculator, he is going off the board at RB17 (pick 3.02) in 12-team standard leagues and RB14 (pick 3.01) in full-point PPR. For a back with a strong path to a RB1 finish, that’s a solid discount.
The path to that RB1 finish for Jones is most easily paved by an uptick as a pass catcher, to go with better health and projecting out a natural increase in carries based on clearly being Green Bay’s best running back.
2019 Projection: 230 carries for 1,058 yards, 8 TD, 45 receptions for 410 yards, 2 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 82%
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