2019 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Courtland Sutton

WR Courtland Sutton (Denver Broncos)| 2nd Year

2018 Stats: 42 receptions, 704 yards, 4 TD

It was essentially a tail of two halves for Courtland Sutton during his rookie season. In his first eight games, he had 17 receptions (2.1 per game) on 37 targets (4.6 per game) with only three games above a 75 percent snap rate.

Over the final eight games last season, after Demaryius Thomas was traded to the Houston Texans, Sutton had 25 catches (3.1 per game) on 47 targets (5.9 per game). He also started all eight games, and topped an 84 percent snap rate five times. In Week 16 and Week 17, he was practically on the field for every one of Denver’s offensive snaps.

The Broncos, at least in theory, have upgraded from Case Keenum to Joe Flacco under center. DaeSean Hamilton benefited the most from Thomas’ departure last year based on increase in targets, but Flacco’s arm strength should open things up for Sutton.

Emmanuel Sanders is working his way back from an Achilles’ tear, and at this point he’s expected to be be ready for the start of training camp. If healthy, he’s the Broncos’ proverbial WR1 until further notice.

Over the final four games last year, when Sanders was out, Sutton averaged 3.5 receptions, 6.3 targets and 36.5 yards per game. Stretch that back to the final five games, and the averages become 3.6 catches, 6.4 targets and 46.2 yards per game.

From Week 13-17, Sutton came in at WR33 in standard scoring.

At the NFL Combine, head coach Vic Fangio said the Broncos are expecting big things from Sutton this year. For his part, Sutton seems ready to be a No. 1 wide receiver.

Sutton was credited with nine drops last year, which helped put his catch rate at a lackluster 50 percent. He should get to 100 targets this year, with a full season in a prominent role, and his red zone usage (eight targets in 2018) in particular should easily get an uptick.

It all points to Sutton finishing as a WR3/WR4 this year, with a slight downgrade on that scale in PPR leagues. At this early stage, that’s exactly how he’s being drafted (WR42 in 12-team standard leagues and WR44 in full-point PPR, via Fantasy Football Calculator).

I’m projecting production increases of 55 percent (catches), 29 percent (yards) and 75 percent (touchdowns) for Sutton in his second season. There’s 1,000-yard, double-digit touchdown upside here, but I’m keeping a lid on my confidence in a total breakout.

2019 Projection: 65 receptions, 910 yards, 7 TD

Breakout Confidence Level: 58%

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