2019 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: D.J. Moore

WR D.J. Moore (Carolina Panthers) | 2nd Year

2018 Stats: 55 receptions for 788 yards, 2 TD; 13 carries for 172 yards

Moore was the first wide receiver off the board in the 2018 draft, and he delivered an efficient 960 yards from scrimmage on 68 touches with just one drop in 82 targets as he averaged 9.6 yards per target. Heading into his second season, with Devin Funchess (79 targets, 5.6 targets per game last year) gone in free agency, Moore is Carolina’s proverbial No. 1 wide receiver.

Over his first six games as a rookie, Moore totaled 13 receptions for 191 yards and a touchdown. As could be expected, his game-by-game snap percentages (h/t to Rotowire) went 25.4, 25.4, 49.3, 40.8, 45.0 and 45.8 over that span.

From Week 8-Week 17 Moore had 42 catches for 597 yards and a touchdown, as he averaged 6.4 targets per game and 9.3 yards per target over that stretch. He was also on the field for over 81 percent of Carolina’s offensive snaps in eight of those 10 games (more than 85 percent seven times).

Moore posted double-digit PPR points in five of the final seven games last year, with ill-timed duds in Week 15 (two catches for 12 yards) and Week 16 (two catches for 19 yards) for fantasy owners that bought in and started him. That said, he came in as WR24 in standard scoring and WR20 in full-point PPR from Week 8-17.

Cam Newton‘s shoulder injury took a lot of juice out of Carolina’s passing game as last season went on, but Moore averaged 7.7 yards after the catch. All indications are Newton will be ready to go for Week 1 after another surgery on that shoulder. But there are other mouths to feed.

Christian McCaffrey set a single-season record for running backs with 107 receptions in 2018, and tight end Greg Olsen is back for one more run. Curtis Samuel (65 targets, seven total touchdowns last year) will also be a factor. Jarius Wright and Chris Hogan are also in the mix for targets.

Moore only had 11 red zone touches last year, and it’s safe to say he’ll be down the pecking order in that area of the field again in 2019. However, eight of those red zone looks came over the final five games of 2018.

Via Fantasy Football Calculator, Moore is being drafted as WR30 (pick 7.03) in standard 12-team leagues and WR26 (pick 6.01) in full-point PPR. As you can see below, he’s on the upswing in PPR league mocks. By the time draft day hits for a lot of leagues in August, a fifth round pick in PPR leagues looks likely to be well-justified.

A full-season finish as a WR2 will qualify as a breakout for Moore this year. Supplemental production as a runner will help him get there, but in general he’s a WR3 in all formats with more upside in PPR formats. A big role from the get-go puts 100 targets easily in reach.

2019 Projection: 71 receptions for 980 yards, 4 TD, 155 rushing yards, 1 TD

Breakout Confidence Level: 67%

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