2019 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Kerryon Johnson

RB Kerryon Johnson (Detroit Lions) | 2nd Year

2018 Stats: 118 carries for 641 yards, 3 TD; 32 receptions for 213 yards, 1 TD

From Week 1-Week 5 last season, Kerryon Johnson played no more than 47 percent of the Detroit Lions’ offensive snaps in any game (via Football Outsiders). After the bye, he played at least 51 percent of the offensive snaps in all five games (with games of 81 percent and 71 percent).

Johnson had at least 14 touches in a game seven times last year. In six of those games he had at least 85 total yards, and he also had a 13-touch, 66-total yard performance in Week 2. Over an eight-games sample from Week 3-Week 11, Johnson had 751 yards from scrimmage with four total touchdowns as he averaged more than 16 touches per game.

After his five-game emergence as a rookie (Week 7-Week 11), when he was RB11 in standard scoring and RB9 in full-point PPR, Johnson missed the final six games last season with a knee injury. But he’s healthy now, with new Lions’ offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell professing a commitment to the run.

As Michelle Magdziuk of Ball Blast Podcast laid out in this Twitter thread, Johnson’s uptick in playing time came in concert with an improvement in his pass blocking (as graded by Pro Football Focus). His pass catching metrics were also good from Week 7-Week 11, and his 82.1 percent catch rate for the season came with zero credited drops.

C.J. Anderson was brought in to backup Johnson, and Theo Riddick was retained as Detroit’s passing down back. Anderson’s boost late last season came running behind a top-notch Rams’ offensive line though, and the Detroit Free Press has suggested Riddick is on the roster bubble while also predicting Johnson will catch at least 60 passes this season.

Anderson is a potential touchdown vulture, and if Riddick sticks around his only positive impact is as a pass receiver.

Johnson’s lack of touchdowns last year was not necessarily because he lacked opportunity, at least in terms of share of the red zone work. He had 17 red zone carries and six red zone targets, accounting for 25.8 percent and 8.8 percent of the Lions’ team workloads in each respect. An uptick would be nice though, and that seems to be in order as long as he is healthy. Over his five games post-bye, via Rotowire, Johnson had 14 red zone carries (at least three in a game three times; seven over his final two games).

Projecting Johnson’s workload over his best eight games last year puts him at 210 carries and 61 targets for the full season (77 projected targets for the season based on Week 7-Week 11). A bump to two more carries per game puts him at a projected 240 totes for a full 16 games.

Johnson looks like a draft day bargain right now, with ADPs of RB20 (pick 3.11) in standard scoring and RB19 (pick 3.11) in full-point PPR (via Fantasy Football Calculator). Legit RB1 upside is clearly worth betting on at that point in drafts, and I’d take Johnson over far riskier backs with ADPs at least a half-round higher like Todd Gurley, Damien Williams and Devonta Freeman.

2019 Projection: 235 carries for 1,105 yards, 7 TD, 43 receptions for 338 yards, 1 TD

Breakout Confidence Level: 88%

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