2019 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Sam Darnold

QB Sam Darnold | New York Jets| 2nd Year

2018 Stats: 2,865 passing yards, 17 TD, 15 INT, 138 rushing yards, 1 TD

An ill-advised throw that led to a pick-six on his first regular season NFL pass attempt was a harbinger of things to come for Sam Darnold. He wound up throwing 15 interceptions (tied for second in the league), and if not for missing three games it’s fair to assume he would have topped Ben Roethlisberger‘s league-high 16 interceptions.

But over the final month of the season, Darnold seemed to find something. From Week 14-17 he completed 64 percent of his passes (57.7 percent for the season) with six touchdowns and just one interception. He’s not necessarily a runner, but 77 of his 138 rushing yards for the season came over that final four weeks.

Over that final month, Darnold finished as QB24, QB3, QB7 and QB22 on his way to being QB12 in fantasy in that span. So in other words, he was a weekly starter in two-quarterback leagues.

As we’ve seen with Carson Wentz and Mitchell Trubisky going into their second seasons, Darnold’s team made an effort to surround him with better talent this offseason. The Jets got guard Kelechi Osemele from the Oakland Raiders in a trade, while signing wide receiver Jamison Crowder to man the slot and bringing in a versatile piece in Ty Montgomery.

The crown jewel in free agency though was, of course, running back Le’Veon Bell.

Those new pieces are joining wide receivers Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa, and a promising tight end in Chris Herndon. Incumbent backup running back Elijah McGuire is also an intriguing player.

Darnold has spoken to the potential of the Jets’ offense, with new head coach Adam Gase running the show.

“We have the potential to make a huge step,” Darnold said, via Newsday. “We have a ton of really good pieces. We had a lot of the same guys who made a really big impact for us last year. We’re ready to do bigger and better things this year. I’m just really, really pumped and really excited for what’s to come.The offense is fun and unique. We’re going to do a lot of cool stuff and a lot of stuff that Jets fans haven’t seen in a while. I’m really pumped about that. I know we’re going to score points.”

In Fantasy Football Calculator’s early ADP (12-team leagues), Darnold is coming in at QB24. His ADP has jumped almost a half-round (from pick 14.11 to pick 14.06) just since last Sunday (May 5), but the upside is well-worth a shot as a QB2 right now. The line where Darnold won’t be good value anymore is on the QB1/QB2 line, five rounds above his current ADP.

Darnold is the easiest quarterback breakout candidate to tab this year in fantasy football. But he’s well-positioned to deliver, with a strong finish to his rookie season, a head coach who has an offensive tilt and a bolstered set of talent around him. Anything less than a top-12 finish as a fantasy signal caller in 2019 will go down as a disappointment.

2019 Projection: 3,800 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 15 INT, 175 rushing yards, 1 TD

Breakout Confidence Level: 83%

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