TE Vance McDonald (Pittsburgh Steelers) | 7th Year
2018 Stats: 50 receptions for 610 yards and 4 TD
After a dismal first season with the Steelers in 2017 (14 catches in 10 games), Vance McDonald set career high across the board last year. He even authored a viral moment, with epic stiff-arm of Buccaneers safety Chris Conte on a 75-yard catch and run for a touchdown in September.
Despite playing just 50.5 percent of the Steelers’ offensive snaps last year, McDonald finished as TE12 in standard scoring and TE10 in full-point PPR scoring last year. And Jesse James, who played 50.4 percent of the snaps last year, left for the Detroit Lions in free agency, taking his 30 catches (on 39 targets) for 423 yards and two touchdowns with him.
Combined McDonald and James in 2018, and you get 80 receptions on 111 targets for 1,033 yards and six touchdowns. That would have been TE5 in standard scoring (148.3 points) and full-point PPR (228.3 points).
With the departure of Antonio Brown, the Steelers are losing 168 targets from last year. That target share, 24.9 percent, is sure to get divided among multiple people (JuJu Smith-Schuster, Donte Moncrief, James Washington, James Conner, Jaylen Samuels) and McDonald now has the majority of what was a 16.4 percent target share last year to himself as well. Overall, Pittsburgh lost the third-most targets and the fifth-most air yards in the league during the offseason.
It’s worth noting Ben Roethlisberger led the league in passing yards, completions and attempts last year. So some natural regression seems likely this year, but Pittsburgh’s offense could still retain a lot of passing volume.
The dearth of good starting fantasy options at tight end advances McDonald’s standing, and gives him a top-10 12-team league ADP (via Fantasy Football Calculator) in standard (TE9, pick 7.11) and full PPR (TE9, pick 7.10).
McDonald was only a shade over 10 points removed from being a top-six tight end in standard scoring last year. Even just taking a majority share of what James left behind makes that threshold a virtual certainty in 2019, to say nothing of an extra increase coming based on what Brown is leaving behind.
McDonald has missed 23 games in six NFL seasons, so a missed game probably has to be naturally baked into his projection for 2019. That said, there’s legit top-five tight end, breakout upside here that’s still coming at a relative discount based on how quickly the position falls off after about 10 or 11 guys.
2019 Projection: 62 receptions for 735 yards, 6 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 76%
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