2019 Fantasy Football: Draft Day Values (Redraft)
We are right in the thick of draft season, and there are some tremendous values to be had. I was initially was going to call this article post-hype sleepers, but I’ve grown to hate the term sleeper. With the wealth of information available these days, sleepers in the traditional sense no longer exist. The players below are proof that the echo-chamber that is Twitter can cause talented, productive guys to be pushed down draft boards due to recency bias and hype.
Lamar Jackson
I’ve been beating the Lamar Jackson drum since they drafted him last year. This kid is special, and I’m getting him everywhere I can. The Ravens handled Jackson with kid gloves last year, with a run-heavy approach that limited Jackson’s passing attempts. Jackson self-admittedly threw plenty of lame ducks last year, but people either forget or don’t realize that he passed for over 9000 yards and played in an NFL-style offense at Louisville. Just because Jackson didn’t throw the ball last year doesn’t mean he can’t, it was by design.
From the time he took over for Joe Flacco through most fantasy championship weeks (11-16), Jackson was around the 12-13th ranked fantasy QB (depending on scoring). The Ravens virtually kept him from throwing the ball at all, which won’t be the case this season. Baltimore also drafted weapons for Jackson, taking WR’s Marquise “Hollywood” Brown in the 1st and Miles Boykin in the 3rd of the 2019 NFL Draft. They signed Mark Ingram to shore up the RB corp, and have multiple options at TE with Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews. With the potential to rush for 1000 yards (he rushed for 554 yards in 7 starts last year), the floor for Jackson is high. All he needs is average passing production and the ingredients are all there for a magical season. He’s a perfect QB2 in 2QB/Superflex leagues or a late-round target in 1QB leagues. Currently being drafted as the 19th QB off the board according to NFFC, Jackson has legit top-5, league-winning upside.
Dak Prescott
Easily one of the most divisive players of the past few years, Dak Prescott was waiver wire wonder in 2016. Replacing the injured Tony Romo (surprise), Prescott was free money that turned into a back end QB1. Going into 2017 the hype for Dak was palpable, but with an aging Dez Brant unable to physically take-over like in his prime, Prescott’s number took a step back. This crept into last year, with the first half of the season being mediocre. But Prescott’s fortunes changed when the Cowboys shipped a first-round pick to Oakland for Amari Cooper.
From Week 9 on (post-Cooper trade), Prescott was 4th in yards (2468), 3rd in attempts (320), and 3rd in completions (228). Inconsistent yet explosive, there is no denying the weapon Cooper became for the Cowboys. Post-trade, Prescott was tied with Matt Ryan for the second-most TD passes of 40 plus yards with 3 (only Ben Roethlisberger, Patrick Mahomes, and Nick Mullens had more). What people fail to account for is although Dak isn’t a huge threat on the ground, the Cowboys like to use him in the red zone. Teams focus on stopping Ezekiel Elliott (rightfully so), which leads to wide-open spaces for Dak to waltz right into the endzone. He has 6 rushing TDs in each of the past 3 years. Going on average as the 18th QB according to NFFC ADP, with a full season of Amari Cooper, the return of his security blanket Jason Witten, and the continued growth of second-year wideout Michael Gallup, Dak is a back end QB1 at a QB2 price, and could easily jump into the top 10 if it all comes together.
Chris Carson
If I’m being honest, I’m just hopping on the Carson bandwagon. But if you take a second to look at the facts and how sneaky good Carson was last year, there is no reason he should be going as late as he is. Some are scared off by Rashaad Penny, since the Seahawks took him in the first round (27th overall) of the 2018 draft, even though they drafted Carson the year before in the 7th round (249 overall) in the 2017 draft. Well, this is Pete Carroll we’re talking about here, who benched QB Matt Flynn (who had just signed a 3 year, 20.5 Million dollar contract) for a 3rd round rookie named Russell Wilson in 2012. Carroll isn’t afraid to play who he sees as the better player, regardless of the capital invested in the guy who’s ahead of them. If only fantasy owners could do the same!
Seahawks OC Brian Schottenheimer recently said that he wants Carson’s targets to be around 50 this year (he had 24 in 2018). Pete Carroll also said that Carson will “catch the ball more this year, for sure.”. In only 14 games played, Carson had 1151 rushing yards and 9 TDs, good for the 15th ranked RB in PPR leagues. Carson caught 20 of 24 targets for 163 yards, so those targets equated to 36 PPR points. If the targets do double, and one or two of those catches turn into a TD, Carson can be even better this year. He’s an absolute steal right now, going as the 26th RB off the board in the NFFC with an ADP around the late 4th early 5th round. A guy who finished as a fringe RB1/high end RB2 who’s projected for more work, take Carson with confidence and reap the reward.
Kenny Golladay
Even with Golden Tate serving as the de-facto top Lions wide receiver before he was traded midseason, Kenny Golladay led the Lions in targets (119), receptions (70), receiving yards (1063), and tied Marvin Jones for the team lead with five TD receptions. That slotted Golladay as WR20 in PPR scoring for the 2018 season. “Babytron” as he is affectionately known throughout the fantasy industry, was extremely hyped his rookie year. People fail to realize the magical WR rookie season of 2014 with Odell Beckham Jr, Mike Evans, and Jarvis Landry was more the exception and not the rule. Wide-receivers tend to take a few years to catch up to the speed of the NFL, and truly break out. When he failed to live up to those unrealistic expectations, the hype around Golladay died down. But his talent and sky-high ceiling hasn’t gone anywhere, which leaves Golladay as a draft-day value with top 10 potential.
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Not only was Golladay stuck behind Tate for half the year, but Matt Stafford also admitted that he played a part of the 2018 season with broken bones in his back. Stafford failed to throw for 4000 yards for the first time since 2010 when injury limited him to 3 games. He also had his second-lowest TD total (21) since he threw 41 in 2011 (he had 20 in 2012). Even with the expectation that the Lions will be a run-first team this year, there is a reasonable expectation for positive regression for Stafford, which Golladay will directly benefit from. Golladay is going as the 17th WR off the board in the NFFC, behind guys like Brandin Cooks, Julian Edelman, Stefon Diggs. With an increased target share for a full season, a healthy Matthew Stafford, Golladay is a back end WR1 with upside going at the price of a WR2.
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