2020 AFC South Sleepers, Keepers and Drop ‘Em Like He’s Hot
It is getting to be that time, the time you know to pick who is a sleeper, keeper and someone you want to drop like he’s hot. The AFC South offers a flashy newcomer, a fiery veteran in a new home and a perplexing offense without its main man.
HOUSTON TEXANS
Can the Texans win despite head coach/general manager Bill O’Brien?
KEEPER: Deshaun Watson, Quarterback: There were audible gasps when O’Brien traded DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals. Most of the concern had to do with the fantasy value of Watson. It’s going to be okay. Yes, losing Hopkins isn’t ideal, but Watson will overcome.
Watson was ranked second by Pro Football Focus for his downfield passing. He now has three wide receivers who are known as downfield burners. And now that defenses have to watch out for those three (chances are only two will be healthy at a time…still good) this will open the field for Watson to utilize his legs. In his three seasons he has run for 269 yards (2017), 551 yards (2018) and 413 yards last year. He hasn’t averaged below 20 fantasy points a game. And his defense is generous to a fault so he will probably be playing from behind a lot this season. All equal fantasy stud.
SLEEPER: David Johnson, Running back: Johnson will now always be compared to the production of Hopkins, that’s unfair. It is however, fair to pull out last season stats and be down on him. Yes, he lost his starting position last season to Kenyan Drake (and Chase Edmonds). But that was after he went out with an injury, and before he went out he was averaging 20 fantasy points per game.
Johnson will be the lead back in this backfield. He is also a capable pass receiving back. With Hopkins gone 150 targets are up for grab, not saying look for Johnson to get 150 but… historically speaking vacated targets tend to disproportionately go to the running back when there isn’t a one-on-one wide receiver replacement. That’s only good for those who are taking a chance on Johnson.
DROP ‘EM: Will Fuller, Wide Receiver: This is not a knock on Fuller, Watson is better with him on the field, increasing both his touchdown rate (+2.9%) and his passing yards per game (+52), the problem is Fuller staying on the field. In four seasons, Fuller has yet to play all 16 games. The most games he has played was his first season and that was only 14.
If Fuller can stay on the field, he will be most likely be WR1. IF he can stay on the field.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
KEEPER: Marlon Mack, Running Back: In an ‘ordinary’ season this spot would go to Jonathan Taylor, but this isn’t an ordinary season. ( In dynasty this goes to Taylor but this is redraft). All rookies are going to be starting slower than normal with the limitations brought on by Covid-19. The players who are going to be leaned on are the veterans who know the system and are dependable, enter Mack.
Not only is Mack playing behind Pro Football Focus’ best offensive line for 2020, but he is playing on what FantasyPros.com has determined to be the third easiest schedule for running backs.
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Last season the Colts ran the ball 471 times for 2130 yards, 4.5 rushing average and 17 touchdowns. Mack for his part was responsible for 61 percent of the rushing attempts and finished his 14 games with 1091 yards and eight touchdowns. Now it is true if you are in a PPR league, Mack’s value decreases exponentially as Nyheim Hines is still in the backfield to take over passing downs. But as Mack’s current ADP 5.12, he will surely win you some games especially in the first half of the season.
SLEEPER: Jack Doyle, Tight End: Doyle’s sleeper status is in large part thanks to new quarterback Philip Rivers who loves his tight ends and the departure of Eric Ebron. As far as tight-ends go he is not going to give you a high ceiling, but he will provide you with a safe floor.
Rivers and head coach Frank Reich have put the team back together again. Rivers for his part in his extensive career has had a top -11 tight end in all but one season. Reich has given Doyle 105 targets.
Rivers will not throw the ball as much as he did last season, the Colts only had 513 passes last season. But if you are looking for a tight end who will outplay his ADP and give you a reason for waiting, Doyle is your man.
DROP ‘EM: Philip Rivers, Quarterback: I am not saying the Rivers will be as bad as he was last season with his 20 interceptions to go with his 23 touchdowns, I just don’t expect him to be throwing the ball as much. Last season according to TeamRankings.com the Los Angeles Chargers passed the ball 63.29 percent of the time, which was seventh in the league. The Colts passed it 53.64 percent of the time, which was good for 28th in the league. Yes, there is a difference between Jacoby Brissett and Rivers, but last season Brissett only threw six interceptions on 18 touchdowns. However, they both averaged 14 fantasy points, in fact, Rivers averaged 14.7 and Brissett had 14.4.
Rivers should be statistically better in Indianapolis with a better offensive line. But his weapons aren’t quite as good, and he is on a run-first team.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
KEEPER: DJ Chark, Wide Receiver: What to do…what to do? Chark is the WR1 currently in Jacksonville. He has familiarity with quarterback Gardner Minshew and last season he flashed WR1 fantasy potential. There is also a soft schedule to start off the season that can only help pad his numbers.
Last season he was targeted 118 times, 25 were deep targets, and he was on the field for a 86 percent target share. Now Jacksonville hasn’t gotten better, Pro Football Focus has them ranked as 32nd worst roster for 2020. That is good even in a soft schedule. They will be trying to stay ahead of the “bad” teams and catch up to the “good” teams. It seems like Minshew will be tossing the ball and Chark is his man.
SLEEPER: Gardner Minshew II, Quarterback: I have not bought a seat on the Minshew hype train, but can’t discount the possibility of it all being true. For fantasy purposes there are two pluses: one Minshew is the quarterback in Jacksonville; and two, Jaguars defense ranked 28th against the run and 16th in giving up passing yards per game.
This will give Minshew more than his 470 passing attempts last season and a chance to rush for more than 344 yards. Remember after being thrown in last season, this sixth-round draft pick tossed 21 touchdowns and only six interceptions. Yes, he had 13 fumbles but he also had 67 rushing attempts for 344 yards.
Minshew might just excel in fantasy because his team sucks in reality.
DROP ‘EM: Keelan Cole, Wide Receiver: Not sure if you were thinking Cole, or why but don’t. Last season Cole saw 36 targets for 24 receptions, 361 yards and three touchdowns. And that was before the Jaguars drafted Latavius Shenault.
TENNESSEE TITANS
KEEPER: Derrick Henry, Running Back: The Titans were seventh in rushing attempts per game last season. When they were home they rushed 26.8 times a game and on away games rushed 30.1 times a game. Leading that rushing offense was Henry, who was on the field for 59.49 percent of the offensive snaps. The closest in snap counts for running backs was Dion Lewis with 36.97 percent.
Henry simply ran over everyone last season. Henry finished the season with 1540 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry. There will be a regression, not only with the loss of Jack Conklin, but 16 touchdowns and 1540 is a lot.
SLEEPER: Jonnu Smith, Tight End: In Tennessee, there is a palpable shortage of dependable receiving targets. That and the Titans are a run-first team with Ryan Tannehill under center. Delanie Walker is gone. Smith controls the tight end room, as he should because he is dependable.
The Titans targeted the tight end position 25 percent of the time, which was the eighth highest in the league. Smith saw 44 of those targets, Walker 31. Smith was efficient with his chanced catching 35, for 439 yards and three touchdowns. He was also only behind George Kittle and Travis Kelce for the most avoided tackles after the catch and was second in yards after the catch per reception.
Smith ceiling is not as high as some, mainly because Titans ranked 32nd last season in pass attempts per game (26.9). But in the last 10 weeks of the season, Smith was responsible for 13.3 percent of the passing volume. That will increase and Smith’s efficiency should land him in TE15 or higher.
DROP ‘EM: Corey Davis, Wide Receiver: This is less an indictment on Davis than on quarterback Ryan Tannehill and the system in Tennessee. They simply do not throw the ball enough to feed the entire receiving corps. Remember the Titans ranked 32nd in passing attempts last season, passing only 26.9 times a game.
Davis was on the field more than any other receiver. He was on the field for 72.02 percent of the offensive snaps, yet he finished the season as WR62 in fantasy formats. He had two touchdowns and 601 yards. This isn’t good. This season the Titans should be looking for efficiency and that would >cough< >cough< Smith.
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