2020 Breakouts, Fool’s Gold or Diamonds in the Rough?

There is nothing sweeter than calling your shot on a player and basking in the glory of your superior intellect. Those breakouts are the pistons churning in the engine in a championship roster. 2020 was objectively the worst, BUT there were a few IDPs who outperformed their ADP.

Will their success continue or was it a flash in the pan? These are five breakout defenders from 2020 and their 2021 outlook.

Foyesade Oluokun, LB, Atlanta Falcons

2020: 117 total tackles, four tackles for loss, three sacks, four passes defended, two interceptions, four forced fumbles, and one fumble recovery = 138.9 fantasy points

The third-year LB made his mark in the middle of Atlanta’s defense in 2020. He saw his snap share increase from 35-percent in 2019 to 83.9-percent in 2020. He took full advantage of his opportunity by posting 9.3 fantasy points per game (FPPG). That’s more than Bobby Wagner who was drafted as the LB2.

This was with a healthy Deion Jones alongside him. The LB corps of the Falcons was the lone bright spot on a terrible defense in 2020. That fact alone means Oluokun has earned himself a starting role in 2021.

I expect this dynamic LB to build upon his success from 2020 and solidify himself as a LB fantasy managers can trust during the final year of his rookie contract.

Verdict: Diamond

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Jeremy Chinn, S, Carolina Panthers

2020: 117 total tackles, three tackles for loss, one sack, five passes defended, one interception, two forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, and two TDs = 138.5 fantasy points

He led all rookies in tackles and was named the Defensive Rookie of the Month for October and November. He was the player who stepped up after the retirement of Luke Kuechly. I do have concerns though.

He earned 35.1-percent of his fantasy points in two games. The two fumble recoveries for TDs within 10 seconds is an NFL record.

I love that he was a prolific tackler, but his situation was perfect. Kuechly retired, Shaq Thompson decided he didn’t want to be a consistent option, and the Panthers were bereft of talent on the defensive side of the ball.

Don’t read what I’m not typing… I think Chinn is a very talented player, but his fantasy production was inconsistent with his two TD game accounting for a significant portion of his fantasy points for the season.

Carolina will undoubtedly look to upgrade the defense in the draft which could mean more competition for tackles. Less predictability for tackles means a dip in fantasy production.

Verdict: Fool’s Gold

Quinnen Williams, DL, New York Jets

2020: 55 total tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss, seven sacks, three passes defended, and two forced fumbles = 99.6 fantasy points

The trifecta is complete! One LB, one DB, and one DL.

I have to give love to the big guys playing on the ball. Williams was a third overall selection in 2019 and failed to live up to the hype in his rookie season; however, his 2020 performance erased a lot of doubts.

He was a menace all along the defensive line for the Jets. Rushing the passer and stuffing the run at a high level especially considering he will only be 23 years old at the start of his third season. He was the 12th ranked interior defender according to PFF grading.

The Jets new head coach, Robert Saleh, did an incredible job of turning around a bad San Francisco 49ers defense. Williams is the one redeeming player on that defense with C.J. Mosley not being able to stay healthy/opting out of 2020 and Marcus Maye an unrestricted free agent.

Stability and continuity are focal points of Saleh’s coaching philosophy, so I expect him to lean on his young, talented defensive star to provide those in the trenches.

Verdict: Diamond

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Eric Wilson, LB, Minnesota Vikings

2020: 122 total tackles, nine tackles for loss, three sacks, eight passes defended, three interceptions, one forced fumble, and two fumble recoveries = 143.5 fantasy points

Wilson burst onto the scene and the depth chart after a season-ending injury to Anthony Barr in Week 2. He did an exceptional job filling the stat sheet in addition to a solid floor via tackle numbers.

The issues are his ability to play the run, his unrestricted free agent status, and the Vikings’ cap situation.

PFF ranked him 72nd of 83 qualified LBs in run defense. He did make up for in coverage where he ranks inside the top 20.

His UFA status and the salary cap situation are the biggest reasons I am fading him in 2021. Over The Cap believes he played himself into a $10m+ annual salary, but the Vikings are projected to be over the cap (welcome to the department of redundancy department) by approximately $8.6m.

He has the skill set to be a valid fantasy asset as an off-the-ball LB, but the uncertainty of his situation is enough for me to look elsewhere for production.

Verdict: Fool’s Gold

Patrick Queen, LB, Baltimore Ravens

2020: 106 total tackles, 10 tackles for loss, three sacks, two passes defended, one interception, two forced fumbles, two fumbles recoveries, and one TD = 136.7 fantasy points

Those are phenomenal numbers for a 21-year-old, rookie LB who didn’t get a preseason.

Stat lines can be deceiving… Queen led the league in missed tackles and was ranked 82nd of 83 qualified LBs by PFF in overall grade.

I am almost always a process over results person; however, I don’t think that’s fair or even relevant in this case. Baltimore is a factory that pumps out fantasy-relevant IDPs at every level of the defense.

Let me reiterate this… he was 21 and a rookie with zero preseason games! He was a Week 1 starter who played 948 snaps and stuffed the stat sheet like it was a Thanksgiving cornucopia.

Verdict: DIAMOND

Situation and context matter for IDP as much as offensive players. Pay attention to contracts, injuries, and huge one-off performances that inflate a player’s ranking. My advice is to be like Jafar… do whatever it takes to find the diamond in the rough.

*Fantasy points and ADP from FantasyData*

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