2020 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: David Montgomery
RB David Montgomery (Chicago Bears) | 2nd Year
2019 Stats: 242 carries for 889 yards, 6 TD; 25 receptions for 185 yards, 1 TD
At first glance, David Montgomery had a solid, if unspectacular rookie season. Over 1,000 yards from scrimmage is just fine, but there seemed to be a lot left on the table too.
Montgomery’s 242 carries last year were tied for the 14th-most in the league. But he had 18 or more carries in a game just five times, with two occasions in the first five games and two in the last four. In nine games, he had fewer than 15 carries. With Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback, that feels like a bad offensive plan.
The Bears acquired Nick Foles this offseason, but a more run-oriented approach has to be in order for 2020.
Bears GM Ryan Pace believes David Montgomery can be the team’s featured running back and carry a heavier load, if the Bears opt to run more in 2020.
— Jeff Dickerson (@DickersonESPN) February 25, 2020
The Bears had a poor offensive line last year, and it doesn’t look much better right now. So the fact Montgomery was top-10 in the league in broken tackles (28) and attempts per broken tackle (7.7) in 2019 is not surprising, and those numbers are likely to be high for him again this year.
Due in part to fellow running back Tarik Cohen‘s role in the Bears’ offense, Montgomery was underused in the passing game last year (35 targets). Cohen was second on the team in targets (104), but Montgomery was better in yards per catch (7.4 vs. 5.8) and yards per target (5.3 to 4.4). He also fumbled one fewer time than Cohen (2) on 124 more touches (267 to 143).
Despite being underutilized (57 percent of Chicago’s offensive snaps), Montgomery was a RB2 in standard (RB22) and full-point PPR (RB24) last season. In half-point PPR, he was a notch lower (RB25).
Scoring area volume was not an issue for Montgomery, with 33 red zone carries putting him top-15 in the league. His share of the Bears’ red zone carries, naturally, was a top-10 mark in the league and he was one of 11 backs with at least a 60 percent share of red zone carries (a 12th, Saquon Barkley came in at 59.6 percent).
Montgomery feels like a lock for 290-300 touches in 2020, and if Matt Nagy doesn’t get him there it’ll be gross negligence. With over 1,000 yards rushing and another 500 as a pass catcher well within reach in a breakout campaign, Montgomery has the look of a RB1 who may come at a RB2 price on draft day.
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2020 Projection: 272 carries for 1,115 yards and 8 TD, 40 receptions for 310 yards and 1 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 85%
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