2020 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Drew Lock
QB Drew Lock Denver Broncos | 2nd Year
2019 Stats: 1,020 passing yards, 7 TD, 3 INT; 72 rushing yards
Upon drafting Drew Lock in the second round of the 2019 draft, the Denver Broncos hoped to have landed their quarterback of the future. After a neck injury sidelined Joe Flacco for the season, and an ill-conceived three-game run with Brandon Allen starting, Lock got his opportunity.
In his first two starts, Lock had five touchdown passes (multiple touchdowns in both) with two interceptions (55 attempts), a 72.3 percent completion rate and a 111.4 passer rating. In Week 13 against the Chargers (134 passing yards, two touchdowns, one interception; 15 rushing yards) he was QB21 in fantasy, and in Week 14 against the Houston Texans (309 passing yards, three touchdowns, one interception; 15 rushing yards) he finished as QB7.
Lock regressed from there though, with just two touchdowns (and one interception) over the last three games as his completion rate dropped (59.4 percent) and his passer rating went down with it (77.9) over that span. The Broncos went 4-1 in his starts though, which fostered promise for the future.
The Broncos made a notable dip into free agency by adding running back Melvin Gordon. He’ll pair with back-to-back 1,000-yard rusher Phillip Lindsay to give Denver a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield. Both guys are capable pass catchers as well.
Denver was firmly in the market for one of the top wide receivers in this year’s draft, with a late rumor they were ready to trade up for Jerry Jeudy. But they didn’t have to make that move up to get their man, as Jeudy fell to them at No. 15.
Courtland Sutton had a solid breakout in 2019, with 72 receptions for 1,112 yards and six touchdowns. But it says it all that Emmanuel Sanders was the second-most productive wide receiver last year for Denver, since he was traded to the 49ers and only played seven games for them.
Rookie tight ends typically take some time to find their way in the NFL, and Noah Fant was no different last year. Over the first eight games last season he had 20 catches for 185 yards and one touchdown, and he never topped 40 yards in a game. In the final eight games, he tallied another 20 catches but they went for 377 yards as he topped 50 yards in a game four times (two 100-yard games). In that latter time frame (Week 9-Week 17), Fant was TE13 in standard fantasy leagues.
He should never be a head coach again, but Pat Shurmur was a notable hire as the Broncos’ new offensive coordinator. He recently got good seasons out of Case Keenum (fantasy QB14 in 2017) and Eli Manning (QB17 in fantasy in 2018). Last year with the Giants, the combination of Manning and rookie Daniel Jones would have been QB9 in fantasy.
On the narrative that a rising tide raises all boats, Lock has a lot going for him. The Broncos have two capable running backs who could both be top 20-30 finishers in fantasy, two wide receivers who are line to at least be weekly starting options in fantasy (if not a lot more) and a young tight end who could wind up being a top-10 finisher at the position in 2020. Add in Shurmur’s clearly underappreciated ability to orchestrate offense, and the quarterback benefits.
Lock was QB24 in fantasy over his five-start span as a rookie. He has the look of a solid higher-end QB2 for fantasy purposes this year, with serious streaming appeal in good matchups and low-end QB1 upside if things really break right.
It’s obviously very early, but Lock comes in at QB26 (pick 14.08-12-team standard leagues) via Fantasy Football Calculator’s ADP data right now. How that ADP moves is worth watching more closely now, but Lock is in line to be a solid value.
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A full-on breakout into QB1 territory might be a year away for Lock, so it’s no more than a coin flip proposition for 2020. Lower the expectations just a bit, to a high-end QB2 spot, and that sort of breakthrough is more likely.
2020 Projection: 3,750 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 14 interceptions; 150 rushing yards and one touchdown
Breakout Confidence Level: 50%
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