2020 Fantasy Football: Week 4 Start and Sits

We are already four weeks into the season…yaaa! There are reports that the Tennessee Titans and Minnesota Vikings are dealing with Covid-19 breakout (and yes this includes players AND managers AND anyone in the facilities) so keep an eye on their games for this week.

There were a few injuries Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert has a fractured ankle, Atlanta Falcons other wide receiver Russell Gage left the game with an injury and Washington’s rookie stand out defensive lineman Chase Young left the game with an injury. Just keep an eye out for these and others who are sure to show up on the injury report.

Tom Brady excised some of his Denver Demons with a 25-of-38, 297 yards and three touchdown day. Yes, it was against a depleted Broncos team but a win is a win and 297 yards and three touchdowns is fantasy good.

While Gardner Minshew’s Thursday showing was less than good. When considering rostering Minshew in the foreseeable future, check the status of wide receiver DJ Chark. Minshew is about 2.0 yards per attempt better with Chark than without. Week two with Chark he was 30-of-45, 339 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions, 7.5 yards per attempt against Tennessee. Week three against the Miami Dolphins defense and without Chark he was 30-of-42, 275 yards, zero touchdowns, one interception, and 6.5 yards per attempt. (Week one he averaged 8.6 yards per attempt with Chark).

Anyway, let’s get to week four. There are eight games in week four that will have an over-under higher than 50 points. Before Monday Night’s game, Baltimore was a 13.5 point favorite over Washington and before the Broncos named their starting quarterback they were a three-point favorite over the New York Jets.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

DENVER BRONCOS v NEW YORK JETS, DENVER 2 POINT FAVORITE, 40 O/U

Both teams are bad. Both teams are injury ridden. If you are starting anyone in this game it is because your fantasy team is also injury-plagued.  Here are just a few things to keep in mind: Denver ranks 29th in the NFL in scoring at 15 points per game; while the Jets rank 32nd scoring 12.3 points per game. 

Denver ranks 29th in the league is passing touchdowns allowed.  Every quarterback the Broncos have faced so far have thrown multiple touchdowns.  The Jets have given up three touchdowns to the tight end position in the last two weeks.  

START: TIGHT END, NOAH FANT, BRONCOS: Through three games Fant has 14 receptions on 21 targets with 184 yards and two touchdowns.  Last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers he led the team with 10 targets, five receptions and 46 yards.  

SIT: ANY SKILLED POSITION ON THE JETS: There is a narrative circulating that Adam Gase will be motivated in this game because the Broncos didn’t hire him??? Perhaps, but the Jets currently are 32nd in total offense, 32nd in average points per game (12.3), 31st average yards per game (275.7), 31st passing yards per game (187.3) and 27th in average rushing yards per game (88.3).  Add to that that most of his position players are injured and well… a revenge scenario is not looking too good for Gase.  

SUNDAY GAMES

BALTIMORE RAVENS v WASHINGTON, BALTIMORE 13.5 POINT FAVORITE, 51 O/U

You witnessed what happed to the Ravens Monday Night.  They are, say it with me “not a team built to play from behind”.  That is not a likely scenario Sunday against a Washington team that is questioning its quarterback play.  

START: WIDE RECEIVER, TERRY MCLAURIN, WASHINGTON: It is not just that his quarterback is proving to be widely erratic.  Last week Dwyane Haskins had two touchdowns, three interceptions, three sacks and two fumbles, prompting head coach Rich Rivera to state, “There are guys in that locker room that are playing to win.  There is a cutoff point for me on Haskins, there is”. With pressure to excel he needs to target his most trusted options (this could include a good day for Logan Thomas also).

This week McLaurin will be covered by the Ravens Jimmy Smith.  Smith was moved back to corner after Tavon Young went down with the knee injury.  Since last year Smith has allowed 5.2 yards per target.  

However, McLaurin is on the field for 99.5% of Washington’s offensive snaps.  He has seen 25 targets in three games, with a 64 percent catch rate.  The game script favors McLaurin getting plenty of opportunities to amass yardage and receptions.  

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, MARQUISE BROWN, BALTIMORE:  Brown is the epitome of a “boom-or-bust” fantasy option.  Through three games he has six targets in each game.  His stat lines for the games are 5-101-0, 5-42-0, and 2-13-0.  This is while getting a 24 percent of the target share and 38 percent of the teams’ air yards.  It is true in this game he could go off for five receptions, 100 yards and touchdowns, or he could get two receptions and 20 yards and no touchdowns.  Feeling lucky, are you?

NEW YORK GIANTS v LOS ANGELES RAMS, RAMS 12.5 POINT FAVORITE 48 O/U

The Giants are not very good.  They are the worst rushing team in the NFL, according to @LordReebs 32.1 percent of the Giants rushing attempts have failed to gain yards.  That is the highest rate for a league whose average is 16.9 percent.  

SIT: QUARTERBACK, DANIEL JONES, GIANTS: The Giants have no run game, last week Jones was the leading rusher on the team.  So teams aren’t afraid to go after him and per Sports Info Solutions, offensive lineman Andrew Thomas has the most blown blocks of any offensive lineman so far this season.  Which could account for Jones ranking 29th in yards per attempt, 28th in completion percentage, 30th in touchdowns passes and 28th in QBR.  It should strike fear in everyone in the Meadowlands that Jones and that offensive line is going against Aaron Donald this week.

START: RUNNING BACK, DARRELL HENDERSON, RAMS: Henderson’s production is somewhat dependent on Cam Akers’s availability so check Akers’s status for this game.  That being said, Henderson’s ceiling is high and trending up.  Week two against the Eagles defense he had 12 carries for 81 yards and one touchdown while averaging 6.8 yards per carry.  Week three he had 20 carries for 114 yards, one touchdown, while averaging 5.7 yards per carry.  

The Rams are 10th in the NFL in offensive plays run.  This game should not even be close giving Henderson more carries and more yards. 

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

ATLANTA FALCONS v GREEN BAY PACKERS, PACKERS 7.5 POINT FAVORITE, 58 O/U

This is a historically high over-under for an NFL game.  And here is why: Falcons’ rank 30th in the number of times their opponents pass the ball, at 65 percent.  They have allowed opposing teams to score a touchdown on a league-high 38.9 percent of possessions.  And 8.1 percent of opponents offensive plays have gained 20 or more yards which is the highest rate in the league. 

The Packers are first in the NFL in yards per play (6.9) and Aaron Rodgers has completed 67 percent of his pass attempts for 887 yards, nine touchdowns and zero interceptions.  

Check injury status: Julio Jones, Russell Gage and Allen Lazard

START: RUNNING BACK, AARON JONES, PACKERS: This is especially true if Davante Adams is in the line-up.  Last week against the New Orleans Saints, Jones was slightly un-Jones like.  He had 16 rushes, 69 yards and one touchdown while being targeted four times for two receptions and 17 yards.  And while the Falcons defense is porous they are eighth in yards per carrying allowing running backs only 3.64 yards per carry.  They are however 25th in receiving points allowed to running backs.  They have given up four receiving running back touchdowns through three games.  That is where Jones makes his money. 

SIT: RUNNING BACK, TODD GURLEY, FALCONS: The problem with starting Gurley is that so far he only has three receptions for three yards.  The Packers have allowed three rushing touchdowns and are 23rd in rushing points allowed to opposing backs.  But with a 58 over/under and the Falcons a touchdown plus underdog, keeping up with Mr. Rodgers is going to be a passing affair. 

SUNDAY GAMES

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS v TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS, BUCCANEERS 7.5 POINT FAVORITE, 44.5 O/U

CHECK INJURY STATUS: CHRIS GODWIN-OUT; SCOTT MILLER DNP

It is highly unlikely that quarterback Tyrod Taylor is back under center, but always check if you are planning on playing any Chargers skill position.  

START: TIGHT END, ROB GRONKOWSKI, BUCCANEERS: The Bucs will be without the services of Godwin and possibly Scotty Miller.  While Gronkowski is not the Gronk of yore he can still be a productive tight end.  The problem is he really hasn’t until now.  But he is trending up.  He has played 70 percent of all offensive snaps and last week was on the field for 92 percent.  The downside he only ran routes on 48 percent of the team’s pass plays.  He did manage to lead the team in targets with seven.  The downside he had six receptions for 68 yards.  His ceiling is high but his floor is low.  

SIT: RUNNING BACK, JOSHUA KELLEY, CHARGERS: Last week was Kelley’s chance to shine against a soft Carolina run defense.  He didn’t.  Now they Chargers in need of a win will go against the Buccaneers third-ranked run defense that is giving up a paltry 70.3 yards per carry.  That will hurt Kelley’s upside, last week he was targeted twice in a negative game script.  This is a game for Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen. 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS v KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, CHIEFS 7 POINT FAVORITE, 54 O/U

The Chiefs looked every bit of the reigning Super Bowl Champions in their match-up Monday Night Football. 

START: QUARTERBACK, CAM NEWTON, PATRIOTS: The Chiefs defense ranks fourth in the NFL in passing defense.  The Patriots rank 22nd in passing, which would be a problem if the quarterback was not named Newton.  The Chiefs have given up the second most rushing yards to the quarterback position. Look for Newton to throw short and run long. 

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, SAMMY WATKINS, CHIEFS: This is simply a worry about injury.  Watkins has been remarkably resilient so far.  It can’t last…right?

 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES v SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS, NINERS 7 POINT FAVORITE, 45.5 O/U

The Eagles are 0-2-1.  The bright spot has been running back Miles Sanders. 

START: RUNNING BACK, JERICK MCKINNON, NINERS: Mckinnon averaged 2.7 yards per carry last week.  That’s not great.  The upside here is opportunities.  He was on the field for 48 percent of the offensive snaps and on the receiving end of 4 targets in addition to his 14 carries.  The Eagles defense is strong against the run, but the Niners are a run first and second and third team, ranked 10th in rushing attempts (29.7) and 10th in rushing play percentage per game (46.11 percent).  The opportunities will be there.

SIT: QUARTERBACK, CARSON WENTZ, EAGLES: I’m not sure who needs to hear this but Wentz is not having a great season so far.  He has completed only 59.8 percent of his passes and has thrown six picks.  Pro Football Focus has Wentz ranked as the third lowest graded quarterback (47.3).  

The Niners are suffering from the injury apocalypse and they are still second against the pass yielding only 187.3 passing yards per game and sixth in opponents passing completion percentage.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS v MIAMI DOLPHINS, SEAHAWKS 6.5 POINT FAVORITE, 54.5 O/U

The Seahawks are giving up almost 500 yards per game.  This is why Russ must cook. 

START: WIDE RECEIVER, DK METCALF, SEAHAWKS: According to PFF the Seahawks have the easiest remaining schedule for wide receivers.  Metcalf is averaging 7.3 targets per game and even if Byron Jones makes a return it probably won’t help.  Metcalf stat lines for the first three games: 4-95-1, 4-92-1, and 4-110-1 respectively.  

SIT: RUNNING BACK, JORDAN HOWARD, DOLPHINS: Howard is touchdown dependent.  The Dolphins will run him on the field when they are in the red zone in need of a touchdown.  That’s a co-dependency you don’t need. 

CLEVELAND BROWNS v DALLAS COWBOYS, DALLAS 5 POINT FAVORITE, 56 O/U

Baker Mayfield has only 23 passing attempts in his last two games.  This over/under suggests that he may need to throw more this game. 

START: WIDE RECEIVER, CEE DEE LAMB, COWBOYS: Yes, again.  The Browns middle defense can be had.  The receivers who have accumulated the most receiving yards against the Cowboys have come from the slot.  Lamb plays the majority of his routes from the slot (74 or 133 snaps) and has played 82.5 percent of the offensive snaps. 

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, JARVIS LANDRY, BROWNS: The Browns are the second lowest in the league in calling pass plays.  This has led to Landry target share falling to 17 percent even though he is on the field for 67 percent of the offensive snaps. Last week he was targeted four times, for four receptions and 36 yards.  He needs to be more productive to be fantasy relevant.  This game script has Odell Beckham Jr. written all over it. 

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS v DETROIT LIONS, SAINTS 4 POINT FAVORITE, 54.5 O/U

INJURY STATUS: MICHAEL THOMAS

START: TIGHT END, TJ HOCKENSON, LIONS: Kenny Golladay returned to work last week and tied with Hockenson  for the team lead in targets with seven.  Hockenson was on the field for 80 percent of the offensive snaps and his routes for dropbacks went up to 89.7 percent.  Now he will face a Saints team that have given up the most points to the tight end position.

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, EMMANUEL SANDERS, SAINTS: It was thought that without Thomas, Sanders would be the man.  It has been instead Tre’Quan Smith.  Both Smith and Sanders had five targets last week, but it was Smith who was on the field for 100 percent of the offensive snaps.  Smith would also be the deep ball threat if Drew Brees had more than three deep ball pass attempts so far.  It could open up as the Lions have allowed the most deep pass attempts so far.  

ARIZONA CARDINALS v CAROLINA PANTHERS, CARDINALS 3.5 POINT FAVORITE, 52.5 O/U

The Cardinals suffered a surprise defeat last season and the Panthers a surprise win.  

START: WIDE RECEIVER, DJ MOORE, PANTHERS: Last week was not kind to Moore as he had four targets, two receptions and 65 yards in the Panthers winning effort. He still ranks 15th in the league in receiving yards.  And although he hasn’t had a touchdown yet, leads the Panthers in end zone targets.  

Moore is in a good spot this week.  The Cardinals have allowed 23 plus fantasy points  to both Terry McLaurin and Kenny Golladay.  

SIT: RUNNING BACK, CHASE EDMONDS, CARDINALS: This is a game where running backs should excel. The Panthers have allowed the second most fantasy points to the running back position so far this season.  The problem for Edmonds is that Kenyan Drake is starting to take over the position in the backfield.  Drake should be the man we thought he was this game. 

MINNESOTA VIKINGS v HOUSTON TEXANS, TEXANS 3.5 POINT FAVORITE, 54 O/U

Seemingly the worst is over for Deshaun Watson and the Texans offense.  

START: QUARTERBACK, DESHAUN WATSON, TEXANS: Watson has just completed the ‘murders row” of defenses and now it gets better.  The Vikings 18.9 percent pressure rate ranks 30th in the NFL.  This will be a welcome relief for Watson after being subjected to the Pittsburgh Steelers 52.3 percent blitz rate last week.  This reprieve should see him rise above his QB 17 rank. The Vikings are giving up the third most passing yards to the quarterback position.  That and Watson ability to make plays with his legs should put him in top five quarterback ranks for the week. 

SIT: EITHER TIGHT END ON THE VIKINGS: The Vikings tight ends have been an afterthought so far this season.  As the Texans have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to the running back position and the most rushing yards, this should be Dalvin Cook’s day. 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS v CHICAGO BEARS, COLTS 3 POINT FAVORITE, 45.5 O/U

It is the start of the Nick Foles era in Chicago. 

START: WIDE RECEIVER, ZACH PASCAL, COLTS: Pascal is seeing 73.5 percent of the snaps in the slot.  The Bears have allowed 14 receptions from the receivers in the slot.  With the Kyle Fuller and Jaylon Johnson manning the outside, the slot has been vulnerable.  

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, ANTHONY MILLER, BEARS: Having Nick Foles under center is all kinds of good for the Bears.  It is especially good for Allen Robinson and Jimmy Graham, so somebody has to be the odd man out.  The Colts defense is sneaky good.  They rank first in averaged yards per play against, so count on Robinson, Graham and David Montgomery to vulture any volume there is to be had.  

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS v CINCINNATI BENGALS, BENGALS 3 POINT FAVORITE, 47.5 O/U

I fear for Joe Burrow’s livelihood.  

START: QUARTERBACK, JOE BURROW, BENGALS: That being said, the Jaguars rank 24th in team pressures (26 percent).  Burrow has the most dropbacks for a quarterback this season.  The Jaguars have averaged 22.3 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks which is fifth in the NFL.  

In three games the rookie has completed 64.5 percent of his passes, for 821 yards, five touchdowns and one interception.  He should finally have time to add to his yardage and touchdown count. 

SIT: QUARTERBACK, GARDNER MINSHEW, JAGUARS: This is especially true if Minshew is without DJ Chark once again.  Minshew was less than pedestrian in his last outing without Chark, compiling most of his 275 yards in garbage time.

BUFFALO BILLS v LAS VEGAS RAIDERS, BILLS 3 POINT FAVORITE, 52.5 O/U

START: RUNNING BACK, DEVIN SINGELTARY, BILLS: The Raiders have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs this season.  Singletary has been less than advertised, but he has been competing with time with Zach Moss and has had touchdowns vultured by his quarterback Josh Allen.  The status for Moss is currently uncertain and there is still a chance Allen takes the touchdown runs inside the red zone.  But if there is any chance for Singletary to shine it is this game. 

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, WIDE RECEIVER, BRYAN EDWARDS: Edwards is suffering from an ankle injury and status is uncertain.  The Raiders depend on Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller.  Last week Hunter Renfrow made an appearance and was productive with nine targets, six receptions, 84 yards and one touchdown.  This was while Edwards languished with three targets, two receptions and 48 yards.  

MONDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT

PITTSBURGH STEELERS v TENNESSEE TITANS, STEELERS 1 POINT FAVORITE, 47 O/U

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINITY OF THIS GAME, IF YOU PLAN TO START ANY PLAYER MAKE SURE HE IS CLEAR OF THE INJURY STATUS.  YOU WILL HAVE NO BACK-UP.  IF YOU ARE FEELING BRAVE HERE ARE SOME STATS TO REMEMBER:

1. The Steelers blitz at a rate of 52.3 percent. 
2. TJ Watt, Bud Dupree, Stephon Tuitt and Cameron Heyward rank in the top 10 pass rushers as graded by total pressures generated. 
3. Ryan Tannehill is averaging 8.6 yards per pass play from a clean pocket (7th) and only 2.4 yards per play when the defense is able to get pressure (26th).
4. Malcom Butler playing right cornerback has allowed 153 receiving yards over the last two weeks. 
5. Steelers are second best in preventing fantasy points to running backs.  
6. Mike Hilton playing slot corner for Steelers has given up the most receiving yards on the team.

Stats from Pro Football Focus. 

Good Luck and as always come talk to me on Twitter @neveenoughglt and for your start n sit questions come talk at us on the 1130 eastern on the Sunday War Room GoingFor2Live 

 

 

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