2021 Player Outlook: Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders
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QB Derek Carr (LV)
2020 Ranking: QB13
Offseason Changes
RB Kenyan Drake, WR John Brown, WR Willie Snead signed
WR Nelson Agholor signed with Patriots
OG Gabe Jackson, C Rodney Hudson and RT Trent Brown traded
Projected Stats: 4,125 yards, 25 touchdowns, 14 INT; 120-125 rushing yards, 1-2 TD
2021 Projected Ranking: QB19
Overall Outlook
Carr has improved his yardage and touchdown totals in each of his three seasons under Jon Gruden, setting a career-high in yards (4,103) last year. But last year, his dink-and-dunk style gave way to unleashing the deep ball. After a league-low average depth of target of 6.6 yards in 2019, he finished sixth in the league last year (8.9). On 20-plus yard throws, among quarterbacks with at least 30 such attempts, he had the second-best completion rate (46 percent) with 10 touchdowns (tied for third-most).
Leaving out Week 15 against the Chargers, when he left early due to a groin injury, Carr had multiple passing touchdowns and more than 260 yards in nine of his other 15 starts. Widen out to multiple touchdowns or more than 300 yards in a game, and two more games are added to that tally. One of the four exceptions was a weather game in Cleveland, and another was a one-sided win over the Broncos when he had 25 attempts. So we’re down to Week 1 against Carolina and a bust performance in Week 12 against the Falcons as outings where Carr fell short when seemingly lined up for success.
Carr is consistently underappreciated as a fantasy quarterback, and that won’t change this year. With three-fifths of his offensive line traded away (and downgraded from) and Nelson Agholor gone in free agency, his situation has gotten worse. Agholor was the deep threat Henry Ruggs was supposed to be last year, and now Carr has to work with the real thing. John Brown and Willie Snead aren’t not significant upgrades at wide receiver.
Carr had three rushing touchdowns last year, and in a surprising find he has five rushing scores over the last two seasons. Last year’s 140 rushing yards were a career high though, and topped his total from the previous two seasons. A talent-eroded offensive line may have him on the move more this year, but Carr doesn’t add much with his legs.
Carr has delivered one top-10 fantasy season in his career, with a precise finish as QB10 in 2016. In traditional terms he is replacement level, and that translates to fantasy too. There are certainly worse QB2-types with streaming potential, but the ceiling is never high on the whole for Carr and the floor is lower this year.
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