2022 Player Outlook: Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders
RB Josh Jacobs (LV)
2021 PPR Ranking: RB12
Offseason Changes
- New head coach: Josh McDaniels
- New competition: Zamir White (draft pick), Brandon Bolden (free agent), Ameer Abdullah (free agent)
- WR Davante Adams acquired
Projected Stats: 1,000-1,025 rushing yards, 6-8 rush TDs; 30-35 receptions, 0 receiving TD
2022 PPR Projected Ranking: RB22
Overall Outlook
After back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons start his career, Josh Jacobs fell to 872 yards over 15 games last season. But he offset some of that drop with career-highs in targets (64) catches (54) and receiving yards (348), and he still had nine rushing touchdowns.
The change in coaching staff is notable for Jacobs. Jon Gruden clearly believed in having a bell cow running back, and proved it by using Jacobs as one. New Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels of course comes from being the offensive coordinator in New England, where the lead back changed on basically a weekly basis depending on opponent. Or who might be in Bill Belichick’s dog house that week. It’s easy to assume McDaniels will bring that same philosophy to Las Vegas, which has been fueled by the signing of former Patriot Brandon Bolden and the drafting of Zamir White in April. The Raiders also declined Jacobs’ fifth-year option for next year.
But what if McDaniels uses Jacobs as a clear lead back? There is a precedent to consider.
In 2014, as he was entering his fourth year, the Dallas Cowboys were not inclined to re-sign DeMarco Murray the following offseason. To say they ran him into the ground might be an understatement. Murray led the league in rushing yards (1,845), rushing touchdowns (13) and yards from scrimmage (2,261). His 392 carries that season is tied for seventh-most in a single season in league history, and his 449 touches are sixth-most. Frankly the Cowboys weren’t going to keep Murray, so they didn’t care if he was useful after they were done with him. He had a 1,200 yard season with the Tennessee Titans in 2016 (on 293 carries). Then 2017 was his final season in the NFL.
The Raiders could have a similar plan for Jacobs this year. Run him into the ground, and let him go.
Along with Bolden and White as new additions, Kenyan Drake is still around in the Raiders’ backfield mix. Drake was mostly a non-factor last year, with 63 carries, 30 catches and three total touchdowns over 12 games as Jacobs’ backup.
It’s easy to just expect Jacobs to get a lot less work in a new full-blown Raiders’ backfield committee. But a projection of 280 touches over 17 games is not a reach, and that would have been the eighth-most touches in the NFL last year. If you want to see it there’s risk at a current fourth-round ADP (Fantasy Football Calculator), but Jacobs doesn’t stand out in that regard among other backs in that ADP range.
The floor could be low for Jacobs, if McDaniels does go with a committee backfield that will be shaped to fit each week regardless of who the best player is. But the range of outcomes doesn’t feel that wide (RB20-RB30 finish in PPR). So the appeal of Jacobs will directly depend on where he can be drafted in your league.
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