5’s a Crowd – Jaguars WRs (Fantasy Football)

3’s a crowd: that’s the expression right? Ok, maybe it is actually 3 is company, but in fantasy football, sometimes 3 can be 2 crowded (too crowded I know, but let me have some fun with numb3rs). Since this is the 5^th article in the 3’s a Crowd series, I thought I would change it up and look at a positional group where 5 players could produce purposeful points. If 3 is crowded, imagine how claustrophobic 5 will be.

 

For this 5^th installment, we shall look to Jacksonville. The Jaguars have 5 wide receivers that could potentially get on the field. That offense will probably continue the trend of last year, where the running game was the focal point. Unlike last year, Leonard Fournette has, up to this point, had a healthy offseason. Furthermore, the Jaguars signed free agent Guard Andrew Norwell, meaning that they should be even more efficient at running the football. That being said, they still need to pass the ball so there is value to be had among the Jaguars WRs. Let us attempt to discern where that value will be.

 

D.J. Chark | 1^st Season

Chark was drafted in the 2^nd round (61^st overall) in April’s NFL Draft. The most notable thing about Chark’s time in college was his 20.5 career yards per reception, which includes 21.9 YPR on 40 catches (874 yards) in 2017. He never saw more than 52 touches in any season but still managed to score 5 and 4 scrimmage TDs over the last 2 years respectively. Chark also operated as a punt returner in 2017 and scored 2 TDs on 18 attempts.

 

Keelan Cole | 2^nd Season

Cole was signed by Jacksonville last year after going undrafted. In his rookie season, he caught 42 passes for 748 yards (17.8 yards per reception) on 81 targets and he also hauled in 3 TDs. Cole certainly finished 2017 strong, since he did not have more than 2 receptions in a game until after week 8. His high YPR allowed him to lead the Jaguars in receiving yards, even though he did not have the most catches.

 

Marqise Lee | 5^th Season

Lee is another Jaguars 2^nd round pick (39^th overall) only he was drafted in 2014. Health hasn’t been too kind to Lee as he has only played all 16 games once in his 4-year career. Last season, in only 14 games, he led the team in targets (96) and receptions (56) while finishing 2^nd in receiving yards (702) and receiving TDs (3). He signed an extension during the offseason and is now, financially anyway, Jacksonville’s #1 WR.

 

Donte Moncrief | 5^th Season

Moncrief was taken 90^th overall (3^rd round) by the Indianapolis Colts in the same draft as his current teammate Marqise Lee. Much like that aforementioned teammate, Moncrief has had some trouble staying healthy, with 9 and 12 appearances respectively in the previous two seasons. He is more of a TD producer than the other Jacksonville WRs. Moncrief had 6 and 7 TDs in 2015 and 2016 respectively; none of the other Jaguars WRs have ever had more than 3 TDs in a season.

 

Dede Westbrook | 2^nd Season

Unlike his teammate, fellow NFL sophomore Keelan Cole, Westbrook actually was drafted (110^th overall). The former fourth-rounder found some success in the 7 games he played as a rookie. In that span, he was targeted 51 times and managed to grab 27 of them. He turned those targets into 339 yards and 1 TD.

 

Athletic Profiles

Player Profiler keeps track of combine scores in several categories. 40 Yards dash is simply a timed run for 40 yards whereas the Speed score is the 40 time adjusted for weight. The Burst score is measured by the sum of a player’s vertical jump (how high they jump) and broad jump (how far they jump) while equalling weight. Agility score indicates a players ability to change direction and maintain speed. Catch radius score is a receiver’s ability to secure a football in a 3-dimensional space. SPARQ-x score is a combination of Speed, Power, Agility, Reaction and Quickness.

Of the 5 players we are profiling, D.J. Chark had the best 40 yard dash time at 4.34 seconds. Donte Moncrief was a close second at 4.40, but when it is adjusted for weight, Moncrief had a score in the 97^th percentile, while Chark was slightly below in the 96^th%.  Westbrook actually had a close 40-time to Moncrief’s at 4.44, but when adjusted for weight, Westbrook lags behind in the 35^th%. Marqise Lee had a 4.52 40 yard dash, but when adjusted for weight, he was better than Westbrook (37^th%). Keelan Cole is last with a 4.64 40 time, and an 18^th% score when adjusted for weight. This is surprising considering his 17.8 yards per receptions from 2017.

For their burst scores, once again, Moncrief and Chark lead the way with 133.2 (94^th%) and 132.5 (93^rd%) respectively. Lee was not far behind with a 128.1 burst score, good enough to be in the 83^rd%. Westbrook had a burst score of 118.7, which put him in the 39^th%. Cole does not have a burst score on Player Profiler.

When it comes to agility score Lee finally has his chance to shine (on the Jags anyway) with 10.97 seconds, which places him in the 76^th%. Cole has the second best agility among these WRs with 11.09 (65^th%). Moncrief and Westbrook come behind with 11.32 (37^th%) and 11.54 (14^th%) respectively. Chark does not have an agility score listed.

Moncrief was able to lead the Jaguars WRs in another category: Catch Radius. At 10.24 inches, he comes in at the 88^th%. Lee is close behind with a 10.18 catch radius, good enough to be in the 80^th%. Westbrook once again falls behind the other with a catch radius of 9.85 which places him in the 22^nd%. Neither Chark nor Cole have a catch radius score on Player Profiler.

SPARQ-x

The SPARQ-x score is generally the workout metric used to determine a classification of an athlete overall. Now, not every player has a SPARQ-x score listed on Player Profiler, usually due to that player not participating in the required amount of workout drills. Chark and Cole both go unlisted, but with Chark dominating in the categories that he participated in, it is safe to say that he probably has the better athletic profile of the two. Of the Jaguars WRs with SPARQ-x score, Moncrief has the highest with 115.5, good enough to be in the 80^th%. Lee also has an impressive score with 111.3, which places him in the 69^th%.  Westbrook is significantly lower with a score of 93.5 or an 18^th% SPARQ-x score.

All of the being said, it seems that Chark and Moncrief have the most balanced athletic profiles, while Lee is also pretty impressive in the workout metrics. While he has a relatively slow 40yard dash time, Cole still scored fairly well in the agility score, an important aspect for WRs when trying to gain separation from defenders. Westbrook offers the least in terms of an athletic profile but he demonstrated in 2017 that he can still make a difference on the field.

 

Training Camp

When training camp opened for the team, Marqise Lee and Donte Moncrief got to start things off on the 1^st team offense. However, both Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook got to work fairly often with QB Blake Bortles. D.J. Chark got the rookie treatment and was kept on the 2^nd team offense, even though he was making great catches.

Eventually, some might say inevitably, Moncrief suffered an injury that kept him for participating with the team for 6 days. During that time, Cole and Westbrook practiced exclusively on the 1^st team. Even Chark was catching passes from Bortles.

I am aware it is only practice and that defenders are not hitting with the type of ferocity that will be expected of them during games. Even so, when Chark, Cole and Lee are making catches while covered by All-Pro CB, Jalen Ramsey, it requires us to notice. While practicing against such a formidable defense, the Jaguars WRs will not be afraid to go up against any secondary.

 

Preseason

Through 2 preseason games, we are seeing somewhat of a trend when it comes to the Jaguars WRs. In their 1^st preseason game, Lee and Westbrook were Borltes’ targets on 3^rd down. Moncrief was also working with the 1^st team offense. Chark came on later as part of the 2^nd stringers. As per the usual procedure, the backups got much more playing time than the starters in the preseason opener.

In the 2^nd game, however, the 1^st team offense played the entire first half. Cole and Lee were operating on the opening drive in 2WR sets, while Westbrook joined them by playing the slot in 3WR formations. By the third offensive drive of the game, Chark and Moncrief were playing with the 1^st string team. This is probably a realistic look at what the Jaguars will do during the 2018 season where all 5 of these WRs will see playing time.

I mentioned the trend of Lee and Westbrook as targets on 3^rd down and that continued in the 2^nd preseason game. We also saw the versatility of certain players as Chark, Cole and Westbrook all spent time in the slot. Furthermore, the Jaguars TEs were running deep routes, opening space for the WRs underneath.

 

Average Draft Position (ADP)

Unlike some other positional groups outlined in the 3’s a Crowd series (for ex. Colts RBs), the Jaguars WRs are being drafted around the same range. According to Fantasy Football Calculator’s ADP data for 12-team leagues, Marqise Lee is the most sought after from this group. In Standard (0 points per reception) scoring, he has an ADP of 12.04 (4^th pick of the 12^th round) which rises to 11.06 in PPR (1 point per reception). Westbrook and Cole are both going in the 14^th round regardless of format, with Westbrook slightly ahead in both Standard (14.05) and PPR (14.01) than Cole (14.07 and 14.04 respectively). FFC only has the top 220 players listed and in both formats Chark and Moncrief outside that top 220.

 

Verdict

Normally, I would advise going with the cheapest option when players’ role are unclear (again, see the Colts RBs article) but this feels different. Marqise Lee has the most rapport established with QB Blake Bortles. He led the team in targets and receptions last season and there were no drastic changes made to the team that would prevent that from repeating. With the way that the Jaguars use their TEs, Lee will get ample opportunities to catch passes on shorter routes, giving him an edge in PPR formats. A mid 11^th round pick is a worthy price for a team’s leading receiver in a 12-team PPR league.

I would be willing to spend an even later pick on another Jaguars WR in both Standard and PPR settings. Personally, I would side with Keelan Cole as he has the best chance of getting on the field in 2WR sets. There really is no fault in taking either Dede Westbrook, who plays in the slot, or Donte Moncrief who has a history of TD upside. It seems that D.J. Chark is a year away from significantly contributing, but he may hold value late in the year as he grows more accustomed to the NFL game.

 

Thank you for reading this special 5^th edition of 3’s a Crowd. I hope that I could bring some clarity to the convoluted WR situation in Jacksonville. If you have any comments or questions, I can be found on Twitter @nyama_ks. As always, Going for 2 has a large quantity of high-quality sports content. Be sure to check out the site daily.

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