Why Chip Kelly Will Fail in San Francisco

He earned a name for himself as a highly successful college coach and was hotly pursued by multiple teams to make the leap into the NFL coaching ranks. In his first year, he turned a bad team into a double digit winning team. After a couple of successful seasons — the wheels began to fall off. There were rumors that he and upper management had butted heads, that his players were disgruntled and were complaining about the way he ran his practices, and on top of all that, the team was losing.

Rumors swirled that he would be fired at the end of the season. Rumors that he wanted to go back to college where he would have more control over everything. Stories were being written about his stubbornness and inability to “play nice” with the owner and GM. The media began to leak statements from players that were vehemently denied publically. Fans grew restless and started booing their team during home games. All the turmoil and drama came to a head when team president, Jed York, made the decision to fire head coach Jim Harbaugh…

Oh, you thought I was talking about Chip Kelly?

It’s amazing how eerily similar Harbaugh and Chip Kelly’s first NFL coaching tenures began — and ended. In some respects, they mirrored each other, but there are two glaring differences between the two.

1) Their public personalities.

Jim Harbaugh was a walking soundbite with a larger than life personality, making outlandish, sometimes confusing or cryptic statements to the media, whereas Chip Kelly was so reserved and private he came across as having the personality of a cardboard box.

2)  What happened to them after being fired.

Harbaugh went on to coach his alma mater — the Michigan Wolverines –and was very successful in doing so. Chip Kelly, surprisingly, was hired to be the new head coach for the San Francisco 49ers, a landing place in which he will fail…miserably.

Why do I say that?

Let’s start with the team itself and what is left from the Jim Tomsula debacle that was the 2015 season.

Colin Kaepernick, a player that just a few short years ago was one completed pass from winning a Super Bowl, was benched in favor of Blaine Gabbert. Yes, Blaine Gabbert! To add insult to injury, Gabbert actually played better than Kaepernick had played to that point in the season. A few short weeks later the 49ers put Kaep on season-ending IR to have surgery on his non-throwing shoulder, and everyone, including myself, expected him to be cut after the season — or at least traded.

Then there is the offensive line, a once dominant force littered with first round picks and the staple of the 49ers offense, is now a shell of itself. In fact, they ranked as the third worst offensive line in the league according to PFF (Pro Football Focus). Kaep was sacked 28 times in nine games and the rushing attack ranked 21st in the league.

Their offensive “weapons” include two Raven cast-offs, Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith, running back Carlos Hyde who was also put on IR ending his season, and rounding out the offense are a few tight ends that aren’t even worth mentioning. 

Their defense is one of the youngest in the league and it showed in 2015,  they constantly gave up the big play or made a mental mistake costing the team. The defense, outside of Navarro Bowman, no longer includes a “who’s who” of Pro Bowl defensive players, and they finished as a bottom five defensive team.

Now in steps Chip Kelly or what the 49ers hope is Jim Harbaugh 2.0.

Chip Kelly apologists say, “He will revive Colin Kaepernick’s career because Kelly’s offense needs a mobile QB”. Revive his career? How? By getting him killed? During Chip Kelly’s tenure in Philadephia, none of his Week 1 starting QB’s played the entire 16 games. Not one. The amount of plays and pace of Kelly’s offense is designed to tire out the defense, which it does, but it also tires out the offensive line and they eventually give up the sack that knocks their QB out of the game.

“But Kaepernick is a mobile QB, he can avoid the sacks.” Can he?

If you have watched any 49ers games over the last two years as I have, then there is one thing you will notice. Kaepernick is fast but not quick and there is a huge difference. Watch tape of Russell Wilson in the pocket as he ducks and dodges defenders and then watch Kaepernick as he struggles to get out of his own way. It takes Kaepernick two full strides before he starts to pick up speed, whereas Wilson seemingly goes from 0-60 in half a stride. Now that’s not to say he can’t learn to step up in the pocket or make that subtle side-step that guys like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have learned to do, but he hasn’t shown that as of yet, and he takes a lot of unnecessary sacks because he tries to “Russell Wilson”-it, but ultimately ends up getting dragged down.

Let’s go back to the “pace of the offense” designed to tire out the defense. Well, when the offense continually goes three-and-out you end up tiring out your own defense. In fact, the Eagles were dead last in offensive time of possession in Chip Kelly’s tenure, and his defenses always tapered off at the end of the season. They were tired.

The “pace” only works if your offense can stay on the field. The 49ers were 22nd in the league last year in three-and-out percentage while the Eagles were 15th. The offense, as it is constructed, just isn’t good enough to sustain drives, and that will wear out a defense that isn’t very good to begin with.

Team speed is another huge problem with the 49ers and has been since Jim Harbaugh first took over. During Harbaugh’s tenure, tight end Vernon Davis was the fastest offense player outside of Colin Kaepernick. And it wasn’t even close. The 49ers have Torrey Smith now, and yes he is fast, but that is it for speed on offense. Vernon Davis is gone, Anquan Boldin was never fast — not to mention he is getting up there in age — and the other receivers on the team haven’t made enough of an impact to even mention them.

Yes, they can draft a wide receiver, but they haven’t had much luck drafting offensive players in Trent Baalke’s reign as GM, so I wouldn’t count on that. Fans of the 49ers also know that they don’t normally make the big splashy free agent signings either, so to expect them to go out and get someone is another thing I wouldn’t count on.

Now Harbaugh’s 49ers overcame the lack of speed by becoming a power running team, Kelly’s offense isn’t built like that. Just ask DeMarco Murray who, two years ago, as the member of the Cowboys, was probably the best power, one-cut running back in the NFL. Kelly tried to turn him into the type of running back that stretches the field horizontally with runs designed to get to the edge of the defense. We all know how well that worked out.

Then there is Chip Kelly himself. Reports are that he doesn’t get along with  people and rubs them the wrong way sometimes. So you fire a guy for being stubborn and hard to work with, but who also took you to a Super Bowl, then you hire a guy that’s stubborn and hard to work with who is coming off a debacle of a season? Makes sense to me.

Without a drastic change in personnel and an influx of speed receivers and running backs, this offense will look worse than it did in Philly. The only “light at the end of the tunnel” is that Trent Baalke is good at stacking draft picks. The 49ers are expected to have 12 draft picks in this years draft, and I’m willing to bet Baalke will turn some this years picks into picks for 2017.

With that many picks year in and year out, you are bound to eventually hit on a few good players and they may eventually turn this franchise around, but Chip Kelly is not the answer.

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