NFL Draft: Who is the Best Draft Guru?

With the NFL combine around the corner, I wanted to look at the most consistent NFL teams in terms of evaluating and drafting talent over a five-year window. With much respect to Jimmy Johnson who built the Cowboys dynasty of the early to mid-90’s through the draft by selecting Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, Russel Maryland, Darren Woodson, Leon Lett, etc through a magnificent deal with the Vikings that ESPN 30 for 30 shorts portrayed really well. Johnson was also the first to develop the first draft chart that allowed the Cowboys to analyze trades involving picks. Several teams still use that same model to look at trades throughout the draft. One knock on Johnson — and why I will not use him in this scenario — Johnson’s tenure as a head coach for the Cowboys pre-dated the salary cap. Johnson could hit on a few drafts and not lose those players to free agency. I don’t want to take anything away from what Johnson did, but the salary cap has changed football and now teams have a peak three to four-year window until the cap catches up with them.

Chuck Noll is another master of the draft and built the Steelers into a dynasty during the 70’s but like Johnson, Noll pre-dated the salary cap. Another draft guru that I will not include is Bill Parcels. The Big Tuna was a master re-builder of several teams: Giants, Patriots, Jets, Cowboys and to some extent the Dolphins, but Parcells never hung around to see his work come to fruition. The Cowboys 2005 draft was excellent with the Cowboys selecting Marcus Spears, Demarcus Ware, Chris Canty, and Jay Ratliff but Wade Phillips reaped those rewards more the Parcells.

Chuck Noll is another master of the draft and built the Steelers into a dynasty during the 70’s but, like Johnson, Noll pre-dated the salary cap. Another draft guru that I will not include is Bill Parcels. The Big Tuna was a master re-builder of several teams; Giants, Patriots, Jets, Cowboys and to some extent the Dolphins, but Parcells never hung around to see his work come to fruition. The Cowboys 2005 draft was excellent with the Cowboys selecting Marcus Spears, Demarcus Ware, Chris Canty, and Jay Ratliff but Wade Phillips reaped those rewards more than Parcells.

For this scenario, I’ll look at the post-salary cap era of the NFL. The salary cap has made the draft more important than ever. Missing on a top pick means leaving your franchise in a hole for another two to three years which results in more high draft picks in the future due to their bad records . Only until recently has the rookie contracts changed to allow franchise’s to miss on early first round picks and still compete. The 2015/2016 Redskins come to mind when they selected RG3 number two overall, benched him, inactivated him, made the playoffs and have set themselves up to make a solid three to four-year run. This would have been unheard of under the old rookie contract system.

The best drafter of the modern era of football has to be Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots. No one in football is better than selecting and manipulating the draft then Bellicheck. During the course of 2005-2010 Bellicheck selected eleven players who would contribute to the team, and would make trades within the draft to acquire players devalued in the league (Corey Dillon, Randy Moss, Wes Welker come to mind).

In contrast, The Packers under Ted Thompson have selected eleven players during that same time frame who would contribute to the team for several years (including Aaron Rodgers) but have lacked the trades that Bellicheck was able to pull off. While Thompson is an excellent drafter and outstanding at accumulating picks, trading picks for contributing players is missing from his resume.

The 49ers have also drafted well during that time, building a team that would make three straight NFC championship games, but only a few players remain on the team (Navarro Bowman and Joe Staley). During the 2005-2010 time frame, the Steelers have also drafted well but have drafted more contributors than starters. Santino Holmes, Rashard Mendenhall, Emmanuel Sanders have all contributed towards successful Steeler teams but have not stuck around as long as the Patriots. In 2010, the Seahawks dominated the drafted by selecting Russel Okung, Earl Thomas, Golden Tate, Walter Thurmond and Kam Chancellor but the 2005-2009 drafts were pretty barren.

In 2005, the Patriots selected two starters: Logan Mankins and Ellis Hobbs. Also, in that year, the Pats selected Matt Cassel in the 7th round then parlayed Cassel into a 2nd round pick (not a bad trade!). The 2006 draft was pretty bad selecting Laurence Maroney and Chad Jackson in rounds 1 and 2, however, the Pats did select Stephen Gostkowski who would become an excellent kicker. 2007 yielded one player who contributed (Brandon Merriweather).

The big fish came in 2007 when the Pats acquired both Randy Moss and Wes Welker via trades. The 2008 draft produced two pro bowl caliber players: Jerod Mayo and Matthew Slater. The 2009 draft was pretty solid for the Patriots Sebastian Vollmer blossomed into one of the better tackles in the NFL while Patrick Chung and Julian Edelman developed into starters.

The 2010 Draft yielded starters like Devin McCourty, Brandon Spikes, Aaron Hernandez (Before he was arrested and charged with murder), and, of course, Rob Gronkowski who is arguably the best tight end in the NFL.

To recap from 2005-2010 the Patriots selected several longtime starters (Mankins, Chung, McCourty, Volmer, Mayo, Edelman, and Gostkowski), one superstar (Gronk), a few contributors (Maroney, Merriweather, and Slater) and two duds (Hernandez and Jackson). This is an outstanding five-year run in terms of drafting players that would eventually turn into starters for your team. Bellicheck is also a master of turning draft picks into players with the big ones being Randy Moss and Wes Welker.

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