NCAA Tourney Bubble Watch

As we now sit in the middle of February, the start of the NCAA tournament is just one month away, meaning Selection Sunday is just three weeks away from this upcoming Sunday. And as all the pundits state every year, this year’s bubble is extremely weak when looking at the teams teetering on the edge. The issue was not helped with some high profile teams such as SMU and Louisville not being eligible for the tournament due to NCAA infractions. However this year there is no stand out team to blow away the competition like there was with Kentucky last year meaning this year’s tournament promises to have a number of big upsets and a lot of parity. Below is a list of bubble teams that sit barely in the tournament, just on the wrong side, or a little further out. Keep in mind this can change with just one game for some teams with both big wins or really bad losses.

 

Syracuse Orange (18-8): IN

The Cuse currently sits at 18 wins and have an impressive six RPI top-50 wins and a 6-5 record against the top 50. They also only have one bad loss (St. John’s) making them a favorite on this list to make it into the tournament. If they can finish their final five games at 3-2 or better, in addition to making sure they beat North Carolina State and avoid losing to a bottom-feeder in the ACC tournament then this team should be dancing around the 10-seed line.

Alabama Crimson Tide (15-9): OUT

Alabama currently sits with four wins against the RPI-top 50, a strength of schedule of 13, and an RPI of 34. Those all qualify as strengths when sitting on the bubble. However, the nine losses already are a black mark, as is the loss to Auburn, and the 6-8 mark vs the RPI top-100. Those things can all be forgotten, however, with a strong finish, starting with beating fellow bubble team LSU. After that they need to avoid bad losses at all costs, and have a decent showing in the SEC tournament and Avery Johnson will have his team dancing.

Butler Bulldogs (18-8): OUT

One of the surprise bubble teams is Butler. The Bulldogs seemed on pace to break into the NCAA tourney as a five seed early on in the season but had a bad stretch and now sit squarely on the bubble. They have 18 wins, but their strength of schedule is just 93, and just a 2-6 record against the RPI top-50. Those are not numbers that suggest they can win against NCAA tournament teams come March. A win against Villanova would be a good start to getting on the right side of the bubble again.

Clemson Tigers (15-10): OUT

One team that has the top 50 wins, but not the other things is the Clemson Tigers, who have already reached the 10 loss marker. They also have two sub-RPI 105 losses on their resume, which for all intents and purposes wipes away a few top-50 wins from their resume. They also have a strength of schedule of just 84, an RPI of 87, and are just 6-6 vs the RPI top 50 despite those wins. This team has some good wins, but they are erratic and with a weak end of the schedule stretch, they may need to win out and survive any bad losses in the ACC tournament to get a shot in the NCAA tournament come March.

UConn Huskies (18-7): IN

Connecticut has a solid non-conference win at Texas, who have surprised a lot of people in Shaka Smart’s first year, but they have just one other RPI top-50 win and it was against fellow bubble team Tulsa, who they split with. A win against SMU on Thursday would help out a lot, but this team also has no bad losses to speak of. Right now their worst loss is a loss at home to Temple (they actually got swept by them) and that is not really in the bad loss column. If they avoid bad losses the rest of the way and win against SMU, this team is off the bubble.

Vanderbilt Commodores (15-11): OUT

Another 10 loss team already are the Vanderbilt Commodores, who have just four RPI top- 100 wins to speak of. They also lack any impressive road wins to speak and although they did play a reasonably tough schedule, they didn’t beat any tough teams, losing against seven RPI top- 50 teams. Those games will hurt them come Selection Sunday as the committee is going to gauge whether they think this team has done enough to warrant a spot and if they could beat a tourney team come March on a neutral court, and a 2-8 road record is not going to get it done.

Cincinnati Bearcats (19-7): IN

Every year Cincinnati faces a similar problem and year in and year out they refuse to rectify the problem. They never play a tough non-conference schedule and it hurts them come tournament time as they beat up cupcake teams and it pads their win totals. Their nonconference strength of schedule this year was just 175. They also have a loss to Memphis on their resume which will not help their cause. The good side of things is that they will have over 20 wins when all is said and done and they have beaten UConn and Tulsa, but on the downside they didn’t beat Iowa State, Xavier or SMU in their non-conference, their RPI is just 58, and their overall strength of schedule is 110. They are in for now but proceed with caution.

Seton Hall Pirates (17-7): IN

The Pirates have a rather large collection of wins against teams with an RPI between 51 and 100, but just one against the top 50. They had a shot against Villanova as it came down to the wire, but they couldn’t close it out, instead getting swept by the Wildcats. Another negative are their losses to Creighton and Long Beach State, the latter of whom figures to be below an RPI 100 team by the end of the season. A three-game stretch of games against Providence and Xavier at home, followed by Butler on the road should tell us what we need to know about the Pirates.

Wisconsin Badgers (16-9): IN

A huge win for the Badgers at Maryland has their chances looking very good after a rocky start. This team has a fantastic strength of schedule sitting at five in the country, an RPI of 49, and four wins against the top 50. Those numbers should have them in comfortably, but their four losses to teams with an RPI of 100 or below are what makes it tough. If the Badgers can avoid bad losses and win one or two of their three road games against Michigan State, Iowa, and Purdue this team will be in. A note of caution though as they already have nine losses.

St. Bonaventure Bonnies (17-6): OUT

The Bonnies are in a tough situation. They have won 17 games and have just six losses, but have just one top 50 win. The problem is that win is for intents and purposes, erased by their loss to Duquesne, whose RPI is 125. They have six games remaining, but four are against teams that have RPI’s below 100, meaning they need to win those games, and the other two games are at Dayton and home versus Saint Joseph’s. They must split those two games to have a chance, and if they won both they would be 23-6 with three top 50 wins. That would most likely be enough, but they will need a strong finish.

LSU Tigers (16-9): OUT

Ben Simmons and the LSU Tigers have a problem on their hands. They have beaten some good teams, namely Kentucky, Alabama, and Texas A&M, but have losses to Marquette and Wake Forest that take away from that glory. They also have a troubling 9-9 mark versus the RPI top 150 and RPI of just 71. Those numbers are more likely to have the Tigers and their phenom sitting out the NCAA’s and playing in the NIT unless they finish strong with a 5-1 or even 6-0 mark down the stretch. This resume cannot handle more bad losses.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (16-9): OUT

Lastly, we have the Golden Hurricanes who have a win at SMU to their name, as well as a home win against fellow bubble team UConn. The SMU win helps them out tremendously as SMU is a highly regarded team. However, a loss to Oral Roberts and a 6-9 mark versus the RPI top 150 are weighing them down as of right now. The strength of schedule of 38 and RPI of 50 are positives, but with an easy schedule down the stretch this team needs to win out to be in position for a bid.

 

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