NALCS DFS DraftKings Lineup Advice Week 6 (2/20/16)

Welcome! This is my first installment of NALCS Saturday Fantasy Advice for DraftKings! After many weeks of research and refining my efficiency formula, I am ready to start dishing out some Weekly Fantasy Advice for the Saturday Slate of NALCS.

The efficiency formula. As I mentioned above, I use a formula to assess the efficiency of the players. This formula combines several variables provided by the statistics of the players and spits out a value for the player that ranks their efficiency with 1.00 being the highest possible and 0.00 being the lowest.

The rankings. The goal of the rankings is to give you options for your team. I will give you 3 picks; The upside, the trap, and the smart play. A solid team mixes players with upside and smart plays. Smart plays tend to have a higher salary, the upsides are value players that have some risk, and the traps are players with high salary but poor matchups or downward trends.

Now on to the rankings!

TOP LANE

The Upside – KFO

Honestly, KFO is massively undervalued. Echo Fox plays Liquid, a rough matchup, but in his recent games, KFO plays a mean and high scoring Malphite. KFO’s salary is a fraction of the others, 5600, so taking KFO in your lineup is a steal. There is a chance that Echo Fox lose their momentum to the highly talented Liquid, but the KFO/Lourlo matchup should still be in KFO’s favor.

The Trap – Darshan

 Darshan is a great player, but he doesn’t score points. His team uses him as a split pusher, and minion kills do not win in this type of DFS. Darshan is consistently low on my efficiency rating scale, coming in at 0.67. There are 4 options ahead of Darshan in my efficiency rating, and some of them continually outscore him and cost less or the same, I’m looking at you Hauntzer. Darshan is a great player that should be avoided unless CLG changes their play style dramatically.

The Smart Play – Hauntzer

 Hauntzer is undervalued by DraftKings week after week, and this Saturday is no different. TSM matches up with C9, and while C9 is on a solid upturn with the return of Hai, their top laner, Balls, has one of the lowest gold shares in the league.

JUNGLE

The Upside – Rush 

Rush has great value this week. His efficiency rating, 0.85, is number 3 amongst junglers and the TSM matchup could provide Rush’s mechanics an opportunity to score. Rush has looked better with Hai in the lineup, everyone on C9 has, and the still somewhat uncoordinated TSM gives C9 a chance to regain second place. If the match gets bloody, something that C9 and TSM in their current iterations seem to favor, Rush is a risk with huge upside.

The Trap – Xmithie

 Another CLG player as the trap. CLG plays a more controlled style of play that doesn’t favor fantasy players. Xmithie has the potential to put up decent points, but his efficiency rating is quite poor at 0.65. With DraftKings putting Xmithie’s salary at 6700, there just isn’t a way I can see playing him being a good idea.

The Smart Play – Reignover 

Starting Reignover or Dardoch is a smart idea, but Reignover just slightly edges Dardoch out. The matchup is ideal for the Huni/Reignover show to make its way to the stage as the struggling REN are their opponents. Crumbz has been abused in every game he has played, giving the aggressive Reignover an opportunity to run roughshod all over both jungles. With REN being weakest at jungle and top, the synergy between Huni and Reignover should provide Reignover ample opportunity to score, even if the game is short.

MID LANE

The Upside – Shiphtur 

This week’s mid lane upside goes to value. Shiphtur is a safe laner playing into GBM, who has shown a preference for scaling champions. Shiphtur looks to put another solid performance, not the highest scoring but definitely not the lowest, this week. He has the highest efficiency rating at 0.90 and one of the lower salaries at 6200. Shiphtur is almost too consistent to be an upside, but if he is this undervalued, it’s hard to find someone to take his spot.

The Trap – GBM

Opposite this week’s upside is this week’s trap. GBM is a hyped player who has looked good in most games, but not great. This week he plays against the safe laning Shiphtur, a matchup that provides a trap itself. GBM has a huge salary and low average points per game, leading to his low-efficiency rating of 0.51. GBM will most likely see play later this season, but his current salary prices him out.

The Smart Play – Bjergsen

This week Bjergsen has a low salary. He has a tough matchup in Jensen and C9, but Bjergsen performs in all sorts of matchups. He gets gold share, he plays safe laners with high team mobility, and the matchup in C9 looks like it could turn bloody. Pobelter is also a solid play, but his huge salary might make a short game against REN disappointing. Playing Bjergsen provides the right amount of upside, value, and safety, making him this week’s mid lane Smart Play.

ATTACK DAMAGE CARRY (ADC)

The Upside – Piglet

Putting a player with a salary of 7800 as this week’s Upside may seem a tad cavalier, but Piglet and Wildturtle are the kings of scoring points. Piglet has an interesting matchup in Echo Fox, who are slowly turning their Spring Split around with the return of Froggen. This matchup will be decided by the play of Dardoch and Matt. Snowballing Piglet is one of the primary win conditions and with KFO showing up recently and Froggen being regarded as a great, but passive, laner, I expect a lot of bot side focus from both teams.

The Trap – Altec

Altec’s salary is too high. He has yet to perform to this salary and this puts him at dead last in efficiency. Altec may put together a decent game this week, but with a salary of 7900, higher than that of even Piglet, who averages 30 points per game, Altec should not be in anyone’s lineup this week. He has some upside, but not at that price.

The Smart Play – Wildturtle

Another IMT player as a smart play. IMT have a great matchup in REN. The matchup is safe if lacking a bit of potential to score really high. Wildturtle has a huge salary, but at 34.2 points per game, he has earned it time and time again. An aggressive ADC with a team willing to commit to his style is the dream of any fantasy player. Wildturtle will show up big again this week.

SUPPORT

The Upside – KiWiKiD

KiWiKiD is the Dignitas engage. With the reemergence of Dragon as an objective that will be fought over, I expect KiWi to come up with solid engages, or attempts, to start a fight to grab this objective. KiWi has high kill participation and with a matchup that could swing either way, KiWi takes this week’s Upside.

The Trap – KonKwon

As with most ‘Traps,’ KonKwon is priced too highly. He scores around the average, has an alright matchup, but has one of the highest salaries of support players at 5900. Spending 5900 on someone that looks to provide 13.6 points on average is pricey and with an efficiency rating of 0.46, KonKwon is one of the worst starts statistically.

The Smart Play – YellOwStaR

YellOwStaR is a solid pick up this week. He averages 18.3 points per game and has a fairly low salary at 5400. If you want to pick up some extra points from the support position, YellOwStaR is the way to go. His efficiency is 0.81, which isn’t too bad considering he is a support.

TEAM

The Upside – Cloud 9

C9 has an interesting matchup this week against TSM. They pack a low salary and decent points per game. With plenty of dragons to fight over and barons to bait, C9 v TSM looks to be a high-scoring team game. C9 is not the safest option, but their salary combined with their great showing against IMT means that C9 has a lot of upside this week.

The Trap – NRG eSports

NRG and Liquid are both highly over salaried. At 11.8 points per game, NRG is number 8 in that category. In the team category this week there are a lot of traps, with DraftKings not entirely valuing the current fall of NRG and the rise of Echo Fox with Froggen. Staying away from Liquid and NRG seem to be the smart decision this week, mostly due to high salaries and worse odds at taking the game than expected. At the second highest salary, NRG just is not a great option this week.

The Smart Play – CLG

Even with the somewhat high salary, CLG is this week’s smart play. CLG matches up with TIP, who don’t have the most impressive roster. CLG is a macro oriented team, and consistently win tower trades to gain their advantages. CLG’s players do not score due to this style, but the slow methodical play may just end up in a great performance at mid to high salary. IMT is the safest play, as they will easily score plenty of points with little downside, but the dragon and baron potential with CLG and a longer game seems to be this week’s smartest play.

 

Thanks! This is the first installment of many for Saturday’s NALCS games. Hopefully, this helps you create a lineup that will win you some cold hard cash. Stay tuned for more articles and feel free to comment about and debate my suggestions!

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