Miami Dolphins 2015 Fantasy Outlook
Fantasy Relevant Losses:
- TE Charles Clay
- WR Mike Wallace
Fantasy Relevant Additions:
- WR Kenny Stills
- TE Jordan Cameron
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Overview
The Dolphins were very busy in the off- season, and have dramatically improved their team — on paper at least. With the Patriots losing key players left and right, and not replacing them, the other three teams in this division — Jets, Bills, and Dolphins — have made drastic changes. The strangle hold the Patriots have on the division could be coming to an end.
Whether or not those moves results in victories remains to be seen. The contributions of free agent additions Ndamukong Suh, Jordan Cameron, and Kenny Stills will have a huge impact on how many games the Dolphins win this year, but the biggest off-season move may be the re-signing of a player that was already on the roster.
Ryan Tannehill will be the single most important player for the Dolphins — as most QBs are for their respective teams. The extension he signed — four years, 77 million with 45 guaranteed — seems like a lot of money for a guy that hasn’t made the playoffs in his first three years. On the other hand, his needle is pointing in the right direction, having shown marked improvement each year.
The Dolphins went all in for 2015, and anything less than the playoffs will be a disappointment, but how do these moves effect the fantasy relevance of the skill players in Miami? Let’s break it down.
Quarterback
In each of Ryan Tannehill’s first three seasons he has increased his yardage total, his completion percentage, and his touchdown passes — as well as having a career low in interceptions in 2014. Any coach or team would take that type of progress from their young quarterback.
From a fantasy perspective, 4,045 and 27 TDs isn’t anything you would jumping up and down for. Both of those numbers rank him outside of the top 10 for quarterbacks. On the other hand, what does get me excited, is his 311 rushing yards in 2014. That’s an extra 30 points in standard scoring, and when you tack on his one rushing TD, it increases to 36 points. A non-running QB would have to throw another 700 yards and two TDs to get those same 36 points. You’ll take that any day.
If you are like me and you wait to draft a quarterback, Tannehill is looking like a good player to target. If we assume he takes similar strides in production as he did from 2013 to 2014, where he increased his passing TDs and yards by 10 percent, that would put him around 4,500 yards and 30 TDs. Combined that with similar rushing totals as 2014 and you have a QB getting you about 20 fantasy points a game, that’s pretty good, and for a late round pick no less. Where do I sign up? Position Grade: B
Running Back
Lamar Miller‘s production finally started to match his potential. After two lackluster years, Miller broke out in 2014, rushing for 1,099 yards and eight TDs — tacking on 38 receptions 275 yards and another TD.
Miller didn’t start the season as the lead back, that distinction belonged to Knowshon Moreno. After Moreno was injured in the second game of the season, only to return in week 6 to get injured again — this time for the rest of the year — Lamar Miller handle the bulk of the work for the entire season.
Miller’s production on the field made Moreno expendable, and he is currently a free agent who has garnered little interest on the open market. With Moreno out of the picture, there is virtually no one on the current roster to threaten Miller as the lead back, so he should be in for a huge workload this season. If the Miami passing game improves, as expected, with the additions of Kenny Stills and Jordan Cameron, Lamar Miller could could find plenty of running lanes. Position Grade: B-
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Wide Receiver
Gone is WR Mike Wallace and TE Charles Clay, and in steps Kenny Stills and Jordan Cameron. Whether those are upgrades or not remains to be seen, but they are certainly not downgrades. Kenny Stills brings an element to this offense that Miami thought they had when they signed Wallace — a speedy deep threat receiver.
Tannehill has a huge arm, and excels at throwing the ball down the field, unfortunately in 2014 when he threw it downfield, there was no one to catch it. Dolphins had one of the worst passing offenses in terms of big play ability, averaging only 6.8 yards per pass play. To put that in perspective, the worst passing team in terms of total pass yards — the New York Jets — averaged 6.4 yards per pass. Kenny Stills, in theory, should help bring that number up, as he average 16.5 yards per catch last year. By comparison, Mike Wallace averaged 12.9 in 2014 with the Dolphins, and he was supposed to be their “big play guy”.
Second year wide out Jarvis Landry had a good rookie year with 84 receptions 758 yards and five touchdowns. Those numbers don’t jump out because we have been spoiled with the recent explosion of rookie receivers, but if we were to go back five years and look at those numbers, we would be more impressed. Landry suffered from the lack of a down field passing game, as he averaged only nine yards per catch. With Stills potentially being the missing piece in this passing attack, Landry should find his way into nice sophomore season. Position Grade: C+
Tight End
Gone is Charles Clay and in steps Jordan Cameron. Cameron, after high expectations, had a season to forget in 2014. Injuries played a big part in his lack of production , but even when he was on the field, he wasn’t doing much. Tannehill represents the best QB Cameron has ever had in his young career, and it’s not even close. That’s more a knock on the Cleveland Browns QB situation than it is a vote of confidence in Tannehill. To say that Tannehill — an “average” NFL QB — is head and shoulders the best QB Cameron has played with is , gives you an idea of how bad Cleveland’s situation was the past few years. Jordan Cameron has to prove that he can remain relatively healthy for an entire season, and if he does, could be in for a good statistical year. Position Grade: C
Summary
The Dolphins made a ton of offensive changes in the offseason, and just how that will affect their fantasy production remains to be seen. There are a lot of “if this” and “if that”, making it a team full of risk from a fantasy perspective. With risk sometimes comes reward, and every guy I mentioned could be in for a great 2015 season. I wouldn’t reach to high in your draft for any of the players on the Dolphins — with the exception maybe of Lamar Miller — but if they are still sitting there in the later rounds, they are worth the risk. Overall Grade: C+
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