Penthouses, Dumpster Fires and Ham Sandwiches in the NFL

There are several other teams with Penthouse potential; Minnesota, Seattle, Pittsburgh, Denver and Dallas, but they all have flaws to overcome. Minnesota must overcome a below average offensive line, while Seattle is struggling offensively due to Russell Wilson‘s ineffectiveness due to leg injuries. Pittsburgh plays down to the level of their competition, Denver has a below average quarterback in a quarterback league and Dallas’s defense is below average, even though their ball control advantage masks it. At least one of these teams will make the jump to the Penthouse. My guess; Minnesota and Seattle.

The next group is much easier to spot, as it’s easier to find the bad teams than it is to find the good teams. These are the 3-4 worst teams we have in the NFL every year. Really bad teams with really bad rosters. We’ll call them the Dumpster Fire. With a few breaks, one of these teams might get to 5 wins, but none of them have a chance to get to .500. These teams are bad on both sides of the ball and are already playing out the string, their fans looking at 2017 draft projections. So far Cleveland, San Francisco and Chicago have proven to be Dumpster Fires. The Los Angeles Rams, although currently 3-4 have a good chance of joining the Dumpster Fire.

To get to the meat of the article (pun intended) and the crux of my theory here, the vast majority of NFL teams falls into the final group. We’ll call this group the Ham Sandwich. Everyone has eaten a ham sandwich and if you’re hungry a ham sandwich will fill you up. However, it’s nothing to get excited about and nothing to go out of your way for. These teams aren’t anything to get existed about either, as they’re all basically 8-8 teams.

The NFL is an 8-8 league. With the draft, salary cap and free agency, the league is designed for teams to finish at .500, although a few Penthouse and Dumpster Fire teams defy this trend. The majority of teams do not. Most Ham Sandwich teams are much stronger on one side of the ball than the other. The Raiders, Saints and Falcons have potent offenses but can’t stop opposing offenses. Other teams, like the Chiefs, Titans and Texans have strong defenses but struggle to score points. With the current situation in the NFL, it’s extremely difficult to be dominant on both sides of the ball, and it shows.

With a few breaks, a Ham Sandwich can win 10 or even 11 games, but are usually quickly eliminated in the playoffs. The Washington Redskins were a Ham Sandwich last season. They made the playoffs in a weak NFC East and were a one and done versus a superior Packers team in the playoffs. A few bad breaks, and a Ham Sandwich is looking at a top five draft pick. The Dallas Cowboys of 2015 are a great example of this. The Cowboys, who were a Ham Sandwich in 2015, lost quarterback Tony Romo for most of the season and parlayed a potential 8-8 season into the 4th pick of the 2016 draft.

If you stayed with me this long, you’re probably wondering what this has to do with fantasy football. Probably not a lot, however there are some take aways here. Players from good teams are more dependable than players from bad teams. Good teams are far more dependable sticking to their game plan than bad teams, so the players are more likely to do what’s expected of them than players from bad teams. Players from good teams are also generally better, or at least have better supporting casts, than players from bad teams.

Therefore, shoot for the Penthouse when you can afford it, but a Ham Sandwich is always better than a Dumpster Fire!

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