NASCAR DFS DraftKings: Experimenting with a Specific Daytona 500 GPP Strategy

It is great to have NASCAR back, and with a new sponsor, Monster Energy. The Clash and Dual exhibition races at Daytona were fun to watch, but it was time for the big one, The iconic Daytona 500. Before I discuss the NASCAR DraftKings GPP experimental strategy for this restrictor plate race, let’s review the race results.

Kurt Busch Wins the War of Attrition

The Daytona 500 was tense and marred by multiple crashes. Big names such as Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr., KeslowskiJimmie Johnson, Keselowski all were knocked out of the race as all were involved in multi-car crashes. Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin sustained crash damage, enough to render their cars ineffective to compete at the end. One of the big storylines of the race was NASCAR royalty Dale Earnhardt Jr. returned to the #88 Nationwide Chevrolet, only to have disappointed fans leave Daytona as he was caught up in the wake of a Kyle Busch crash.

The race was a War of Attrition where the strong or lucky survived the junkyard on pit road and in the garages. With under 5 laps, Chase Elliott was comfortably leading the race, as Martin Truex Jr. could not pass him. Elliott ran out of fuel, handing the opportunity for Kyle Larson to jump both Truex and Elliott. However, on the last lap, Larson also ran out of fuel, opening up the window for a patient Kurt Busch to grab the lead. Ryan Blaney also charged forward to be in 2nd. Busch held off Blaney on the final turn, winning his first Daytona 500 in 16 races. The final lap was the only lap that Busch lead in this 200 lap race. The huge win brings the first Daytona 500 victory for Stewart-Haas Racing, as they just switched to Fords from Chevrolets.

The GPP Strategy Using Manufacturer Stacks

One of the unique characteristics of restrictor-plate racing is that the plates keep individual drivers from dominating a race and being way out in front of the pack. One way to increase speed, is for drivers to form drafting packs, as a group of drafting cars are faster than individual cars. Teammates and drivers from the same Manufacturer(Ford, Chevy, and Toyota) look to collude and cooperate to form faster packs. The Toyota drivers used practice time to draft in groups, and the crew chiefs measured how much faster they were together versus as individuals.

So, with Ford, Chevy and Toyota drivers planning to work together throughout the race to help each other storm to the front of the pack, I decided to create Manufacturer Cartel stacks where I tried to cram as many Ford, or Chevy, or Toyota drivers into a single GPP lineup. The ultimate hope was that one of these manufacturers would dominate the race to rake in the top spots at the end, making the GPP lineup a profitable venture. In last year’s Daytona 500, three Toyota Drivers worked together to finish in the Top 3 – Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., and Kyle Busch.  Here are the Manufacturer stacks that I constructed:

The Toyota Camry Stack:  Defending Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, and Martin Truex Jr.  I had to use roster fillers to complete the lineup, so I chose AJ Allmendinger and Chris Buescher, who are Chevy teammates. Both Chevy drivers started the race in the back, so I thought they could contribute some Place Differential upside.

The Chevrolet SS Stack: AJ Allmendinger, Austin Dillon, Jimmie Johnson, Kasey Kahne, Kyle Larson, and Jamie McMurray.   I had to choose between Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr.   Since I knew that Earnhardt would be heavily owned, I pivoted to Jimmie Johnson.

The Ford Fusion Stack: Ryan Blaney, Clint Bowyer, Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, and Danica Patrick.  I couldn’t fit Brad Keselowski in this lineup as I was able to use all Ford drivers in this lineup without him.

The Manufacturer Cartel and GPP Stacking Review

The Manufacturer Cartel Strategy happened early in the race, as all six Toyota drivers pitted at the same time in an early green flag stop. The strategy was poorly executed, however, as rookies Erik Jones and Daniel Suarez crossed each other up, and arrived at their pit stalls late. The other Toyota drivers efficiently fueled up and changed tires, and went back out on the track. However, the Toyota cartel only had four participating in the pack, slower than the planned 6 car pack.  This undermanned pack was caused by rookie mistakes of Jones and Suarez as they could not leave their pit fast enough to join the others.

A group of Ford drivers also tried the simultaneous pitting, where the Stewart-Haas and Penske race teams pitted together.   Unfortunately, a few laps later, this Ford cartel was involved in a crash, taking Danica Patrick, Brad Keselowski, and Clint Bowyer out of the race.

With the many crashes that wiped out most of the big names,  this GPP strategy performed poorly and none of my lineups cashed.    I entered these three GPP lineups in the $3 NAS $25K(3 Entry Max, $25K Gtd) contest.  Here are the results:

1. Chevrolet SS Stack(199.50 Points, 3825th Place):  This stack performed the best of the manufacturers as Allmendinger, Kahne, and Larson produced while both Johnson and McMurray were knocked out of the race.
2. Ford Fusion Stack(190.25 Points, 4156th Place):  I really thought that this stack was going to pay me nicely, but a single crash that took out the whole Stewart-Haas team doomed this lineup. Clint Bowyer and Danica Patrick were knocked out of the race. Kevin Harvick was too damaged to be effective. Even with the top fantasy scorer this week in Ryan Blaney and race winner, Kurt Busch, this team still came up short against the Chevy Stack.
3. Toyota Camry Stack(132 Points, 6654th place): This lineup completely underachieved where Buescher, Kenseth and Busch all scored poorly due to early involvement in crashes.  Ironically, Chevy driver Allmendinger scored the highest in this Toyota-heavy lineup.

Even with the poor showing, I will look to implement this GPP Strategy with two more restrictor plate races at Talladega on the schedule as well as the July Daytona race.   This Daytona 500 could have been a fluke with all of the crashes.  As for other GPP strategies, I also wrote about the Place Differential Strategy, and you can read about it here.

The next Monster Energy race is the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. I will release my Atlanta DFS DraftKings cash picks soon.

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