NBA Opening Night FanDuel Lineup and DFS Picks (10/17)

It has finally arrived!

Welcome to the first slate of the 2017 NBA DFS season. In this article, you’ll find my optimized FanDuel lineup and picks for the Tuesday night games. There are only two games in this one, so options will be limited. Stars are going to be commonplace, so it’s more of a strategy of who to buy into at their cost.

Let’s jump in!

Matchups:

Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers

BOS +3.5, O/U: 212.5, PACE: 99.3 possessions (BOS) vs. 98.4 possessions (CLE)

Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors

HOU +9.5, O/U: 230.5, PACE: 102.5 possessions (HOU) vs. 102.2 possessions (GS)

Shooting for the Stars

Kevin Durant – $9,800

This is a spot where I want to have assurance in my star player and his ability to return value. At these prices, paying up for a star means having to roster bench players for teams where the starters are going to play the majority of minutes. These opening night games are for the fans, racking up marquee matchups so that everyone can see the best of the best square off. That means Patrick McCaw isn’t going to do you any good just to have Harden and Curry in your lineup at the same time.

That means I’m buying Durant. In games where he started in 2016, Durant scored under 20 points in 14 games. Only two of those games did he have less than 5 assists. Only three of those games did he have less than 5 boards. Two of those games, he left halfway through with injury or played less than his average minutes on purpose (20 minutes and 28 minutes). That means this guy, when he played, had one bad game for DFS. One. Lock him in, he’s worth every penny and is going to see more than enough minutes to return the value of a top player on the slate.

Honorable Mentions: 

The Rockets/Warriors matchup is high pace, so the potential is there for Stephen Curry ($9,700) or James Harden ($11,000) to go off and have a bananas contest. Their prices suggest a large difference between their projection and the 5x value target. But you cannot go wrong with them, just be aware of the cost at other positions.

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Middle of the Pack

Trevor Ariza – $5,600

Trevor Ariza last season was severely underpriced, seeing an average of 34 minutes for the Rockets over the course of the year. He’s starting out the 2017 campaign in a great money-saving spot at $5,600. The presence of P.J. Tucker on the depth chart is depressing the price, which is merited because Tucker is a way better defensive option for Houston. However if the preseason tells us anything, it’s that the Rockets still value Ariza as a secondary scoring option to Harden or Paul, as he saw 9,9,10 and 11 shot attempts. There is plenty of opportunities for points and three’s with Ariza, he’s a steal in this opening slate.

Honorable Mentions:

Kevin Love ($7,000) is at a great price here on opening night, but be wary. He has been ice cold in the preseason. Hopefully between now and then he can warm up a little…Marcus Smart ($5,300) is also in a great spot to see an increased role with the loss of Avery Bradley this offseason. A point guard in FanDuel, he looks to come off the bench as a combo guard with plenty of opportunity for those high-scoring steals and assists…We don’t quite know the usage rate for Derrick Rose ($5,500) rest of season, but a starter at this low of a price should still see significant usage for the Cavs without Isaiah Thomas.

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Bargain Shopping

Zaza Pachulia – $3,800

On these slates with a ton of huge names in the 1-4 spots, I’m looking to grab some cheap center options and Zaza looks like a great bargain here. All the other center options are fairly expensive for the value they provide on this slate and Zaza still saw 20+ minutes for the Warriors as a starter. A lock to see a ton of rebounding opportunities along with his even cheaper counterpart JaVale McGee ($3,300), he’s a great bet to at least match his price-range here. 

Honorable Mentions:

The glory plays in this slate are pretty much long shots. We are going to see a lot of the stars in these sets, so it’s a matter of picking the safe ones at reasonable prices. If you’re bold, I would suggest Nick Young for some 3 point opportunities and McGee and his hyper-efficient (1.248 FD pts per min) play for the Warriors…Jaylen Brown ($3,700) should start for the Celtics at shooting guard and has an opportunity to grow as a player this year with Bradley out. He and Jayson Tatum ($3,500) are low priced for the uncertainty of their roles but are potentially good options here.

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Optimal Lineup

PG: Marcus Smart ($5,300)

PG: Derrick Rose ($5,500)

SG: Jaylen Brown ($3,700)

SG: James Harden ($11,000)

SF: Kevin Durant ($9,800)

SF: Trevor Ariza ($5,600)

PF: Kevin Love ($7,000)

PF: Draymond Green ($8,300)

C: Zaza Pachulia ($3,800)

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