Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Monday (3/5/18)

Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Monday, March 5

My picks last Friday ended up down 8.0 units with about a break-even on Sides but a poor showing on my top Totals plays. We’ll try to start out the new week right for a solid seven-game NBA slate Monday. Mostly Dogs on the Sides for Monday but a with a mix of Overs and Unders including some strong plays.

Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vegas lines in their analysis.

In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.

I will then write up my “DFS Advice” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Betting Tips” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1 pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.

HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.

DFS Advice

Teams in Pace Up matchups:

• Heat
• Celtics
• Jazz
• Blazers

Teams in Pace Down matchups:

• Suns
• Bulls
• Magic
• Lakers

Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Heat
• Celtics
• Lakers
• Spurs
• Suns

Lowest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Magic
• Bucks
• Jazz
• Pistons
• Grizzlies

Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:

• Grizzlies
• Spurs
• Suns
• Bulls

Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:

• Jazz
• Blazers
• Cavaliers
• Pistons

General Overview:

• Cash Game targets:
  • Heat (Pace Up, High Scoring)
  • Celtics (Pace Up, High Scoring)
  • Lakers (High Scoring)
• GPP targets
  • Spurs (High Scoring, More Productive)
  • Suns (High Scoring, More Productive)
• Potential Fades:
  • Jazz (Low Scoring, Less Productive)
  • Pistons (Low Scoring, Less Productive)

 

Bovada Betting Tips

Today’s plays

Sides

• Magic +9.5 (5-star)
• Lakers +2.5 (4-star)
• Pacers -2.5 (3-star)
• Suns +9.5 (2-star)
• Grizzlies +11 (2-star)
• Bulls +7.5 (1-star)

Totals

• Pistons/Cavaliers Under 220 (5-star)
• Grizzlies/Spurs Over 202 (5-star)
• Suns/Heat Over 218 (3-star)
• Celtics/Bulls Over 210 (3-star)
• Magic/Jazz Under 206 (3-star)
• Blazers/Lakers Under 224 (2-star)
• Bucks/Pacers Under 209 (1-star)

Previous Results

Sides	W	L	T	Win %	Units
5-star	20	15	0	57.1%	+17.5
4-star	13	10	0	56.5%	+8.0
3-star	18	12	0	60.0%	+14.4
2-star	18	19	0	48.6%	-5.8
1-star	17	24	2	41.5%	-9.4
Overall	86	80	2	51.8%	+24.7

 

Totals	W	L	T	Win %	Units
5-star	4	3	3	57.1%	+3.5
4-star	10	8	1	55.6%	+4.8
3-star	16	12	2	57.1%	+8.4
2-star	31	18	0	63.3%	+22.4
1-star	36	25	4	59.0%	+8.5
Overall	97	66	10	59.5%	+47.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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