Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Tuesday (3/6/18)

Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Tuesday, March 6

Another day on Monday where either the Sides or Totals performed well while the other did not which led to a small loss overall. My Totals were strong with a 5-2 ATS record (+5.2 units), however, the Sides struggled in particular with the top picks for a 2-5 ATS record (-8.2 units). Tuesday looks like a fun eight-game slate including three teams favored by at least nine points and three games with a total over 220. Sounds like another high-scoring DFS night.

Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vegas lines in their analysis.

In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.

I will then write up my “DFS Advice” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Betting Tips” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.

HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.

DFS Advice

Teams in Pace Up matchups:

• None, evenly paced teams matching up tonight

Teams in Pace Down matchups:

• None, evenly paced teams matching up tonight

Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Clippers
• Warriors
• Pelicans
• Raptors

Lowest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Wizards
• Heat
• Knicks
• Hawks

Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:

• Mavericks
• Hawks
• Raptors
• Blazers

Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:

• Rockets
• Sixers
• Warriors
• Thunder

General Overview:

• Cash Game targets:
  • Clippers (High Scoring)
  • Pelicans (High Scoring)
  • Thunder/Rockets
• GPP targets
  • Raptors (High Scoring, More Productive)
  • Blazers (More Productive)
• Potential Fades:
  • Knicks (Low Scoring)
  • Sixers (Less Productive)

 

Bovada Betting Tips

Today’s plays

Sides

• Mavericks +5.5 (5-star)
• Hornets +2 (4-star)
• Heat +4 (4-star)
• Nets +15 (3-star)
• Thunder +5.5 (1-star)
• Blazers -9.5 (1-star)
• Clippers -2.5 (1-star)

Totals

• Rockets/Thunder Under 221 (5-star)
• Sixers/Hornets Under 215 (2-star)
• Hawks/Raptors Over 216 (2-star)
• Nets/Warriors Under 230 (2-star)
• Heat/Wizards Under 205 (1-star)
• Knicks/Blazers Over 215 (1-star)
• Pelicans/Clippers Over 236 (1-star)

 

Previous Results

Sides	W	L	T	Win %	Units
5-star	20	16	0	55.6%	+12.0
4-star	13	11	0	54.2%	+3.6
3-star	19	12	0	61.3%	+17.4
2-star	19	20	0	48.7%	-6.0
1-star	17	25	2	40.5%	-10.5
Overall	88	84	2	51.2%	+16.5

 

Totals	W	L	T	Win %	Units
5-star	5	4	3	55.6%	+3.0
4-star	10	8	1	55.6%	+4.8
3-star	18	13	2	58.1%	+11.1
2-star	32	18	0	64.0%	+24.4
1-star	37	25	4	59.7%	+9.5
Overall	102	68	10	60.0%	+52.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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