Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (5/14)
Introduction
Time to throw out the first pitch on a new week of MLB DFS action with an eight-game slate on Monday night. Three teams are the primary focus of my lineup on Monday as long as the weather cooperates. Let’s start off the week with a bang, or two or three or more.
Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.
So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…
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Lineup
C – Mike Zunino (SEA) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Zunino and the Mariners right-handed power bats will face a righty in Jake Odorizzi who has reverse splits over his career including a 1.54 HR/9 rate to righties.
1B – C.J. Cron (TB) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $3,600)
2B – Brian Dozier (MIN) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Dozier is on a five-game hitting streak that has included a pair of homers and he has a career .396 wOBA and .271 ISO at home against lefties.
SS – Francisco Lindor (CLE) (FanDuel: $4,700 / DraftKings: $5,300) – The Indians are on fire right now, led by Lindor who has eight home runs over his last 11 games.
3B – Jose Ramirez (CLE) (FanDuel: $4,200 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Ramirez has also found his power stroke with five homers in his last 10 games.
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OF – Michael Brantley (CLE) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Brantley rounds out a trio of Indians on tonight’s list with two homers in his last three games as the trio will face righty Mike Fiers who has allowed five long balls over his last three starts.
OF – Nelson Cruz (SEA) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $4,200)
OF – David Peralta (ARI) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Peralta is riding a seven-game hitting streak that has included two long balls and is at his best at home against a righty with a career .383 wOBA and .221 ISO.
Longshot – Steven Souza (ARI) (FanDuel: $2,200 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Souza hasn’t homered since returning to the field nine games ago but did hit 30 homers last season so it’s only a matter of time.
Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Tyler Anderson ($6,900), Chris Stratton ($6,000)
DraftKings – Joey Lucchesi ($8,100), Tyler Anderson ($7,500), Chris Stratton ($5,700)
Results – Friday, May 11
| Pos | Name | HR | FD Pts |
| C | Evan Gattis | 0 | 3.0 |
| 1B | Cody Bellinger | 0 | 12.0 |
| 2B | Jason Kipnis | 0 | 6.2 |
| 3B | Jose Ramirez | 1 | 25.2 |
| SS | Didi Gregorius | 0 | 0.0 |
| OF | Charlie Blackmon | 0 | 27.9 |
| OF | George Springer | 0 | 6.0 |
| OF | Adam Jones | 0 | 6.2 |
| Longshot | Joc Pederson | 0 | 0.0 |
Overall Results
| Pos | Picks | HR | HR Rate | Avg FD Pts |
| C | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 8.72 |
| 1B | 20 | 1 | 5.0% | 7.86 |
| 2B | 19 | 2 | 10.5% | 10.54 |
| SS | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 12.81 |
| 3B | 20 | 6 | 30.0% | 16.83 |
| OF | 59 | 10 | 16.9% | 11.68 |
| Longshot | 21 | 7 | 33.3% | 12.84 |
| Total | 178 | 33 | 18.5% | 11.66 |
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