Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (5/18)
Introduction
Sorry I’ve been absent most of the week but I’m back for a full 15-game slate on Friday night with loads of home run potential. Let’s touch them all!
Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.
So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…
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Lineup
C – Gary Sanchez (NYY) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Honestly, I could pick Sanchez every day at catcher but this is actually only the fourth time he has made the list. He’ll face Jakob Junis who has allowed eight home runs over his last four starts.
1B – Anthony Rizzo (CHC) (FanDuel: $4,200 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Rizzo is batting .409 with three doubles and two homers off Homer Bailey in 22 career at-bats.
2B – Brian Dozier (MIN) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Dozier has a career .394 wOBA and .269 ISO at home against lefties.
SS – Didi Gregorius (NYY) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Gregorius has seen his price drop with his recent cold streak but a matchup against home run prone righty Junis and a bad Royals bullpen could get him back on track.
3B – Matt Chapman (OAK) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Chapman homered last night and gets to face a reverse splits flyball pitcher Marco Estrada who has allowed 2.59 HR/9 to righties this season.
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OF – Mike Trout (LAA) (FanDuel: $4,600 / DraftKings: $5,700) – Trout is hitless in his last 15 at-bats and hasn’t homered since May 6th. How long your think that is going to last? Yeah, me too.
OF – Joey Gallo (TEX) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Gallo’s power versus a right-handed pitcher, Carson Fulmer, who has allowed five home runs over his last two starts and has allowed 1.91 HR/9 to lefties in his young career.
OF – Khris Davis (OAK) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Davis went 4-for-4 with a home last night and bring his reverse splits against a reverse splits pitcher. Dream matchup and he’s reasonably priced too.
Longshot – Chris Young (LAA) (FanDuel: $2,100 / DraftKings: $2,500) – Young will likely start against a lefty and with Justin Upton potentially out, Young could move up in the lineup as well.
Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Nick Tropeano ($7,100), Drew Pomeranz ($7,000), Brent Suter ($5,600)
DraftKings – CC Sabathia ($7,500), Drew Pomeranz ($7,000), Nick Tropeano ($6,800), Brent Suter ($5,600)
Results – Monday, May 14
| Pos | Name | HR | FD Pts |
| C | Mike Zunino | 0 | 0.0 |
| 1B | C.J. Cron | 0 | 9.2 |
| 2B | Brian Dozier | 0 | 0.0 |
| 3B | Jose Ramirez | 1 | 24.9 |
| SS | Francisco Lindor | 0 | 6.5 |
| OF | Michael Brantley | 0 | 3.0 |
| OF | Nelson Cruz | 0 | 6.0 |
| OF | David Peralta | 0 | 0.0 |
| Longshot | Steven Souza | 0 | 12.5 |
Overall Results
| Pos | Picks | HR | HR Rate | Avg FD Pts |
| C | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 8.29 |
| 1B | 21 | 1 | 4.8% | 7.92 |
| 2B | 20 | 2 | 10.0% | 10.01 |
| SS | 21 | 4 | 19.0% | 12.50 |
| 3B | 21 | 7 | 33.3% | 17.21 |
| OF | 62 | 10 | 16.1% | 11.26 |
| Longshot | 22 | 7 | 31.8% | 12.82 |
| Total | 187 | 34 | 18.2% | 11.43 |
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